Running Backs

Always start your studs: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, and Darren McFadden.

Start 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Pierre Thomas vs. TB
Thomas has clearly been outplayed by Chris Ivory, but there’s no telling how much Ivory will play this week. Thomas averages just 45 yards per game and just 3.2 ypc and has only 2 TDs all year—one of those coming last week against Atlanta—but he’s missed so much time this year it’s hard to bad-mouth him too much. This week he takes on the Buccaneers’ 28th-ranked run defense, so this just might be his one and only big game of the year. Tampa Bay gives up 133 yards and 1 TD per game, and there’s a good chance Thomas will get a chunk of those average yards and punch another one into the end zone this week, especially if he continues with his streak of 8 TDs in his last nine divisional games.

Ryan Mathews @ DEN
Based on last week’s abomination from Mike Tolbert, it looks like the rookie is back in charge in San Diego. Matthews is good for 51 yards a game, and while his 4 TDs are not encouraging, the fact that two of them have come in the last three games is. Also encouraging is that he faces the league’s 31st-ranked run defense in Denver this week. The Broncos are giving up 154 yards per game, and their 23 rushing TDs allowed are the most in the NFL this year. The Broncos also give up the most 20-plus and the second-most 40-plus yard runs, so chances are good that young Mr. Matthews will break one or two big ones for you this week.

Shonn Greene vs. BUF
Greene is currently 31st in the league with 51 yards per game but has clearly taken over the No. 1 role from Tomlinson. Over the last three games LT has rushed for 49, 49, and 28 yards, respectively, for a 2.9 ypc average. Greene has rushed for 17, 40, and 70 yards for 4.0 ypc. Tomlinson has also scored just 1 TD—the same amount as Greene—over that span. Sure, neither has been impressive, but when you’re facing the Buffalo Bills and their league-worst run defense, you have to start one of these guys, and based on their recent activity I’m going with Greene. Buffalo gives up 163 yards and 1 TD per game; they also give up 1 big play per game and allow 4.7 yards per carry. I see the Jets resting old man Tomlinson for their playoff run, which makes Greene the best option.

Brian Westbrook vs. ARI
Between the coaching change in San Francisco and the usual spark or boost that change initially brings a team, as well as playing against the league’s 30th-ranked run defense, Westbrook looks like a good option this week—even after two weeks of disappointment. Arizona is giving up 148 yards and 1 TD per game. Their 17 TDs allowed are the fourth-most in the league, as is their 19 big plays allowed. Westbrook is only averaging 29 yards rushing per start this year, but I expect him to triple that number this week as well as add to his 3 TDs

Bench 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Cedric Benson @ BAL
Benson’s 71 yards per game ranks 17th in the league and his 7 TDs on the year ranks 12th, but I think last week against the Chargers was a preview for this upcoming matchup in Baltimore. Last week Benson ran 24 times for 52 yards (2.2 ypc average) and lost a fumble just a week after going off against the Cleveland Browns for 150 yards. Since week 14, the Ravens have gone from eighth in the league in run defense to fourth, giving up just 94 yards a game, and their 5 TDs allowed are the fewest in the league. Baltimore is likely to continue climbing the run defense rankings this week, and I look for them to hold Benson to numbers similar to their first matchup this year: 78 yards at 3.4 ypc.

Brandon Jackson vs. CHI
The up-and-down Jackson is due for an “up” game this week, but I’m thinking the Bears are going to buck that trend with their No. 3 run defense. Chicago gives up just 92 yards and 1 TD per game, and they only allow 3.8 ypc while leading the league in fumble recoveries. Jackson is averaging 46 yards per game and has just 3 TDs on the year. His inconsistency makes him a dangerous play every week, but even more so this week against ‘Da Bears. This game should be all Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing attack.

Ryan Torain vs. NYG
Torain is actually 15th in the league with 76 yards per game, which is probably a little surprising to many, especially since it’s about 30 yards more than Clinton Portis was averaging. But his number of rushing TDs (4) is a problem (he does have 2 others receiving, however). Since torching the Bucs three weeks ago, Torain has struggled with just 53 and 65 yards rushing in the last two weeks—although he did get a TD in each of those games (1 rushing, 1 receiving). Still, this week he faces a desperate Giants team that used to have a defense actually suit up and play each week, and one that may just show up this Sunday. If they do, they’ll bring the league’s 10th-best run defense that allows just 104 yards per game and has given up 11 TDs through 15 games. I’m going with my theory about the Giants being a significantly better team that will shut down the Redskins running game, assuming they get any kind of coaching this week.

Fred Jackson @ NYJ
Jackson has held off rookie running back C.J. Spiller all year; it’s not because Jackson’s that good—he’s averaging a “decent” 60 yards a game and has only 5 TDs on the year—but because Spiller is playing hot potato with the football. Including last week, when he fumbled and lost the ball twice, Spiller’s got 5 fumbles with 3 lost on the year. Stats like that will get you benched quickly—or get you the starting RB job for the N.Y. Giants. This week Jackson faces a very confusing Jets defense (the team overall is pretty confusing) that is ranked fifth in the league and is giving up just 95 yards per game at 3.6 ypc but that gave up 113 yards and 5.9 ypc to Matt Forte last week. Still, I don’t expect the Jets to give up back-to-back 100-yard rushers, so it should be pretty safe to keep Jackson on the sidelines this week.

Wide Receivers