Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Always start your studs: Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Lloyd.

Start 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

DeSean Jackson or Jason Avant vs. DAL
The Cowboys’ 27th-ranked pass defense comes into this week tied for the most TDs allowed this year at 32. They are giving up 251 yards and 2 TDs per game, and they give up the fourth-most big plays. Do you think Michael Vick (or Kevin Kolb if Vick rests) and DeSean Jackson will have a good time this week? Jackson is good for 79 yards per game (sixth-most in the league) and 22.8 ypc (tops in the league), plus he’ll get you TDs receiving, rushing, and returning. Not to take anything away from Jeremy Maclin, who is having a huge year also, but Jackson is the heartbeat of this team; ok, maybe he’s the right ventricle and Vick is the left ventricle…wait, what the heck am I talking about? Look, start Jackson this week if it looks like he'll play a full game. If not, plug in Jason Avant and reap the rewards. Either one should destroy the Cowboys secondary as the Eagles tune up for their playoff run.

Larry Fitzgerald @ SF
In the fiasco that is the 2010 Arizona Cardinals, Larry Fitzgerald is still managing to have a solid year. He’s currently 17th in the league with 68 yards per game and he just secured his fourth straight 1000-yard season. He probably won’t get his fourth straight 90-plus catch season (he has 79 catches now), and his 5 TDs are way off from the double-digit totals of his last three years, but he’s still a good play against a weak 49ers pass defense. San Francisco’s 24th-ranked pass defense gives up 233 yards and 1.5 TDs per game, and even with rookie quarterbacks throwing him the ball, Fitzgerald could put forth a solid effort to cap off a subpar season (for him). He’ll certainly bounce back from the 1 catch for 26 yards he had last week.

Mike Sims-Walker @ HOU
Sims-Walker is a bit of a disappointment this year with his 43 yards per game average, but he does lead all Jaguars WRs with 7 TDs. Still, I was expecting more like 60-65 yards per game from him this year. But fear not—he faces the Houston Texans this week! Houston, the league’s worst pass defense, is giving up 277 yards and 2 TDs per week. This game could quickly become a classic shootout with a 44-38 overtime outcome. Do not expect Sims-Walker to struggle this week like he did in the first meeting against the Texans (3 catches for 26 yards).

Mike Thomas @ HOU
Since this is the last article of the year, and the matchup favored it, I thought I’d do something “crazy” and recommend starting two WRs from the same team. You see Mike Sims-Walker’s info above, now here’s his partner Mike Thomas’ info. Thomas averages 54 yards per game and has just 4 TDs on the year, but over the last two games he’s averaged 80 yards with 1 TD. In this game alone, against the pathetic Texans pass defense, he is more than capable of hauling in 80 yards and a TD. It’s impossible to say which Jaguars WR is the better play this week, so if you have to choose, it may be best to just flip a coin.

Bench 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Santana Moss vs. NYG
Santana is 15th in the league in receiving yards per game with 69. He’s also sixth in the league in receptions with 84, and he has 6 TDs—all this on a very dysfunctional Washington Redskins team. He could be trouble for the Giants this weekend as the Redskins try to knock them out of the playoffs, but I guess I’m clinging to hope that the Giants defense steps up and “wins one for the Aquaviva.” Actually, truth be told, I’m kind of rooting for the Redskins to win so the Giants miss the playoffs and maybe, just maybe, Tom Coughlin gets fired (fingers crossed). Still, against the league’s eighth-ranked pass defense, which is giving up just 202 yards per game, the odds are in the Giants’ favor of keeping Moss in check this week. That would make me very hesitant to play him, even with the recent ineptitude of Big Blue.

Johnny Knox @ GB
Knox was having just a decent year until about two weeks ago when he suddenly erupted. In those last two weeks he’s had 78 yards and a TD and 92 yards and 2 TDs, respectively, and last week’s monster game was against the Jets. What the heck’s going on, Johnny? Well, I’m afraid it might all go away pretty quickly this week against the Packers and their fifth-ranked pass defense. Green Bay only allows 199 yards and 1 TD per game, so I don’t see Knox keeping up this torrid two-week pace. He might still have a decent game, perhaps matching his 64 yards per game average, but I don’t know that it will go much beyond that.

Steve Johnson @ NYJ
Mr. “Why So Serious” is having a pretty serious year; he’s 18th in the league with 67 yards per game, 12th in receptions with 77, and his 10 receiving TDs are fifth in the league (and just two shy of the Buffalo Bills record). But over his last three matchups he’s only averaged 56 yards per game and has just 1 TD. Recently he’s looked more like…who was that Buffalo receiver that used to be really good…oh, yeah, Lee Evans (who has 4 catches, 0 TDs, and a lost fumble in his last three games) than he has the Pro Bowl wannabe he was earlier this season. And against the Jets—although they’ve been torched and burned quite a bit recently—with their ninth-ranked pass defense and 206 yards allowed per game, I’d be nervous to put him out there.

Mike Williams @ NO
Williams, like his quarterback Josh Freeman, is a young stud who has exploded onto the NFL scene this year. But what’s more impressive in Williams’ case is that he’s a rookie receiver having this crazy success. If I had a vote, he’d be my runner-up for Rookie of the Year. Williams is 27th in the league with 62 yards per game, but he’s tied for fifth in the league with 10 TDs. Since struggling against the Redskins (go figure) in Week 14, he’s totaled 140 yards and 3 TDs in the last two weeks. But this week he takes on the league’s No. 2 pass defense. New Orleans allows just 199 yards per game and has only given up one more TD all year (11) than Williams has scored himself (10), so I don’t expect the rookie to reach the end zone this Sunday. He could surprise, but if you want to play the odds, you need to sit him this week.