Everyone knows to start Peyton
Manning every week, regardless of the match-up. But not all decisions
are as easy at that one. So to help you decide who you should
start and who you should bench I have identified the players at
the QB, RB and WR positions that should excel this week and should
be started, as well as the players who will struggle this week
and should be benched.
Quarterbacks
Bye Weeks: Miami, New England,
Pittsburgh, and Seattle; so that means Chad Henne, Tom Brady,
Ben Roethlisberger (he’s eligible this week), and Matt Hasselbeck
are all benched.
Always start your studs: Peyton
Manning, Tom
Brady, Drew
Brees, Aaron
Rodgers, Matt
Schaub, Tony
Romo and Philip
Rivers. Now onto the question marks…
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Sam
Bradford @ DET
Detroit is playing a lot better than most people thought they
would, but they’re still giving up an average of 241 yards and
2 passing TDs per game, not to mention their defense is allowing
27 points per game and ranking fourth in big plays given up. Clearly
there is room here for the blossoming rookie-of-the-year favorite
to continue his hot hand and keep piling on the fantasy points
for you. Bradford’s currently ranked 11th in the league, with
944 passing yards; he’s ranked sixth in pass attempts, with just
fewer than 40 per game; and he’s evened out his TD-to-INT ratio
with six apiece.
Eli
Manning @ HOU
Eli is one of just seven quarterbacks with 1,000 or more passing
yards so far, and this week he’ll get to add to that yardage as
he takes on the worst pass defense in the league. The Texans are
giving up 337 yards per game and the second-highest yards per
completion average at 8.7 yards. They have given up the second-most
big plays and the second-most passing TDs; they are also allowing
a rating of 107.8 to opposing quarterbacks, which is second-worst
in the league. Eli should actually be registering better stats
than he is, and he needs to take advantage of rising star Hakeem
Nicks—something I think he’ll do this week.
Ryan is currently the 9th-rated fantasy
QB.
Matt Ryan @ CLE
Ryan is averaging 245 yards per game passing, and the Browns defense
is allowing 236 yards passing per game, so this looks like a perfect
match—for Ryan owners at least. Atlanta has had some close
games and this could be another one, but regardless of the outcome,
Ryan should live up to his top 10 QB ranking while Cleveland lives
up to its 24th-ranked pass defense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. JAX
Jacksonville is one of only two teams in the NFL giving up over
300 yards per game while allowing a QB rating of over 100. They
lead the league in passing TDs allowed (9), big plays allowed
(26), and average yards per completion allowed (9.2). Plus, their
defense as a whole allows 28 points per game, so expect lots of
yards and lots of scoring this week. Since Fitzpatrick took over
as the Bills starting quarterback in Week 3, he’s thrown
for 375 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs and has a passer rating of 88.1.
He lit up the Patriots in Week 3 before coming back to earth last
week against the Jets. But with the lack of defense exhibited
by the Jaguars, I expect a big game for Fitzpatrick.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Kyle Orton @ BAL
Okay, this is my last time not giving Orton credit for his performance
so far this year. If he does well this week, I’m sold. The reason
I’m not sold on him yet is because he and Denver started out hot
last season before collapsing. This year the Broncos have the
league’s top passing offense, and Orton leads the league in passing
yards with 1,419. But he has only 6 TDs and has been sacked second-most
in the NFL (he’d be leading in that category if Jay Cutler hadn’t
flopped around like a rag doll last week against the Giants, getting
sacked 9 times). Orton leads the league with 44 pass attempts
per game, but to me that just gives the Ravens and their league-leading
pass defense more chances at sacks and turnovers. Last year against
the Ravens, Orton threw for 152 yards with no TDs, and he was
sacked twice. This year the Ravens have allowed just one touchdown
through the air. They have also given up the fewest yards (averaging
119 per game) and have allowed the fewest big plays—in fact, nobody
has gone deeper than 34 yards against them yet this season. So
I think this is the week to let the Denver running game pick up
the slack, especially since the Ravens haven’t been able to stop
the run as well as usual.
Alex Smith vs. PHI
The Eagles defense is second-best in the league against opposing
quarterbacks, allowing them a low 63.9 QB rating. This is not
good news for a struggling quarterback whose own passer rating
is the fourth-worst at a mere 66.1. In addition, Philly is allowing
just 168 passing yards per game, good for fifth in the league.
Now, Smith is averaging a respectable 230 yards per game, but
he has just 3 TDs against 7 INTs, and the Eagles have the third-most
INTs at this point. They rank fifth in sacks as well. This looks
to be an ugly sack- and turnover-fest, so keep the struggling
Smith on the bench.
Bruce Gradkowski vs. SD
Gradkowski may have taken over the starting role in Oakland from
Jason Campbell, but he should not be starting on your fantasy
team, especially not this week. The Chargers are allowing quarterbacks
to complete only 57% of their passes—that’s ninth-best in the
league. But even more impressive is their league-leading QB rating
of just 58.1. Nobody else is under 60! They also have the fourth-most
sacks and give up very few big plays in holding teams to just
155 passing yards per game. They are second in the league in INTs
with 7 and have given up just 3 TDs. Although Gradkowski is averaging
231 yards per game, he is completing fewer than 55% of his passes
and has just 4 TDs in four weeks, which matches his number of
INTs. Gradkowski needs to stay benched this week.
Jimmy Clausen vs. CHI
The Bears pass defense is actually one of the worst in the league
this season. They have given up 255 yards per game and are one
of only five teams to have allowed over 1,000 yards passing this
year. They have the second-fewest sacks with 4 and have only 4
INTs— but they have only allowed 2 TDs and face a rookie
quarterback on a struggling team whose best wideout is hurting.
Clausen is completing fewer than 50% of his passes (the only starting
quarterback in the league doing that) and has a QB rating of just
59.6, also the lowest of any starting quarterback. He has 1 TD
and 2 INTs, but most importantly he’s averaging a league-worst
98 passing yards per game. Forget about how below-average the
Bears pass defense is—they are still way better than the
Carolina passing game.
Running Backs
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