Fearless Forecasting from a
Modest Fantasy Writer9/7/09
One of the most fun aspects of fantasy football is trying to predict
what will happen before it actually does, and applying those prognostications
to your team to get a better result. Instead of making a few general
predictions I’d like to go position by position and make
one bold prediction (or more) that I feel strongly about. More
than likely they will not all come true but if you can pick a
couple that you like and apply them to your draft or team you
may just end up with an advantage over some of your more conservative
league mates. Without further ado I present to you my bold predictions
for the 2009-2010 season.
1. The Indianapolis Colts Will Miss The Playoffs
And Win Less Than 10 Games
This one isn’t really fantasy related but I wanted to throw
it in there anyway. For six straight years the Colts have won
12+ games but that streak will come to an end this season. Here
is my reasoning:
New Coach: When you’re
on a consistent, winning, team and you change head coaches it’s
bound to have a negative effect, if only in a small way. Tony
Dungy was one of the best coaches in the game and even though
the team is familiar with current head coach Jim Caldwell, you
have to think it will take time for the players to adjust to the
nuances of a new regime.
No Marvin Harrison: Granted,
Harrison did not play a large role in 2008 but this will be the
first year Manning has been without his security blanket. You
just don’t replace chemistry like that overnight. His departure
also hurts the overall depth of the receivers leaving the Colts
to count on untested players to step up and contribute.
Kicker Questions: In fantasy,
kickers are usually an afterthought but in the NFL they can win
or lose several games a year. Adam Vinatieri had hip and knee
surgery this offseason and may show lingering effects, or worse
the Colts may have to rely on a less proven kicker if Vinatieri
can’t go.
Offensive Line Questions:
The Colts ranked 31st on the ground last year and much of that
had to do with the performance of the offensive line. Depth is
lacking on this unit and one major injury could be a disaster
for the offense. So far this preseason the line has been inconsistent,
even against lesser talent.
Defensive Questions: The Colts
have been more known for their offense but their defense has been
solid the past 5 years. They have a new d:coordinator, a new scheme
to get used to, and already a rash of injuries to deal with. A
good chunk of their secondary, including superstar Bob Sanders
has been hurt this pre:season and most of the injuries are the
of the type that may linger throughout the year. It is well known
that without Sanders, the defense, especially the run defense
is considerably worse.
Other Teams Catching Up: Part
of the reason the Colts have won so much recently is the lack
of talent in their division. This year, the other three teams
in the AFC South have made upgrades while the Colts have basically
remained the same. I see closer games within the division this
season and would not be surprised if the Colts split with Houston,
Jacksonville, and Tennessee.
Stagnancy: Have the
Colts made any big free agent signings or trades to impact their
team? Yes, they still have Manning which always gives them a chance,
but they are aging in key areas and are relying more and more
on young, inexperienced players to make big contributions. A few
of them might come through but I believe this is the year it falls
apart for Indianapolis and it may take awhile for them to get
back on top.
2. Pierre Thomas Will Finish AS A Top 7 Running
Back
The range of predictions on Thomas is huge; many think he will
be a top 15 back because of his situation while others feel he
won’t crack the top 20 because of various factors including
the Saints propensity to pass. His recent knee injury appears
minor and may scare some fantasy owners but I still believe Thomas
will finish as a top 7 running back for several reasons.
Competition: Thomas has to
compete for touches with Reggie
Bush and Mike
Bell. Bush, as everyone knows is injury prone and not an every
down back, even when healthy. His prior knee injuries may cause
the Saints to limit his playing time so he can contribute all
year long. Mike Bell is the other threat to steal carries but
has bounced around the league, being cut by several teams for
not being in shape and has never proven to be a viable back in
this league. Bell has looked good this preseason but at this point
he is not anything more than a spot player who may get 4-5 touches
a game. Look for Thomas to received around 18 rushes including
goal line looks, and will be targeted a few more times in the
passing game. If and when Bush misses time, these numbers will
obviously increase with Bell receiving more looks as well.
Offensive Power: Outside of
a 30-7 loss at Carolina the Saints averaged 30 points a game last
year and never scored less than 20. This means they will never
have to abandon the run game, allowing Thomas to contribute on
3 downs, all 4 quarters. Thomas should get at minimum, 5 trips
to the red zone a game. There are going to be very few times when
you see defenses put eight men in the box against these Saints.
Not only do they have an elite quarterback in Brees and an elite
receiver in Colston, but they also have a solid possession guy
in Lance Moore, a tight end with big play ability in Shockey,
and real burners to stretch the field in Henderson and Meachem.
Thomas should have nice open lanes to run through as defenses
focus on stopping the big play through the air.
Defensive Woes: The Saints
defense should be improved this year because of what they did
in the draft and through free agency acquisitions, but nobody
will jump to compare them to the Steel Curtain anytime soon. I
fully expect most Saints games to be shootouts and therefore Thomas
should benefit greatly from the team always being in “attack
mode”.
Extras: Thomas reported to
camp in great shape, adding muscle to his frame and declaring
he was ready to take on a full load. He has the motivation, desire,
fresh legs and now the opportunity to showcase his skills. He
knows the offense and can be dangerous between and outside the
tackles, as well as through the air. The Saints will still be
a pass-first team but with a little more commitment to the run
and a wide-open offense I predict Thomas to average a touchdown
and 100 total yards a game.
3. Danny Ware Will Be This Year’s Mid
Season Running Back Gem
Each year a backup running back emerges from obscurity to the
forefront of the fantasy world. We’ve seen guys like Samkon
Gado, Ryan
Grant, Peyton
Hillis, and Earnest
Graham go from rise from obscurity to become a fantasy stud,
if only for a few weeks. This year I believe that guy will be
Giants running back Danny Ware. With Derrick
Ward gone and rookie Andre
Brown declared out for the year with a ruptured left Achilles'
tendon, Ware is locked in as the Giants #3 back. Ahead of him
is fantasy stud and big bruiser Brandon
Jacobs who is one of the league’s most productive backs. The
smaller but shiftier Ahmad
Bradshaw looks to take over the role Ward played last year.
If both backs ahead of Ware stay healthy and are productive Ware
probably won’t see much more than occasional mop up duty, but
I don’t think this is how it will play out. It’s difficult to
predict injuries but Jacobs clearly takes (and gives) a lot of
punishment. He missed three full games and pieces of others due
to injury last year and his workload is projected to increase
this year. There is only so much pounding a body can take and
unless the Giants commit to keeping him fresh (no indication they
will) I see Jacobs missing at least as much time this years as
he did in 2008.
Bradshaw doesn’t have the body type to be an every down
back. Ware (6’, 230 lbs) is a combination of the two backs
in front of him, displaying power and burst, giving him the makeup
of a complete back. If Bradshaw is forced to step into a larger
role I’m not so sure he can stand up to the challenge and
take the pounding, thus opening the door for Ware, especially
on the goal line. All Giant RBs have the benefit of running behind
one of the league’s best offensive lines and reside on a
team committed to the run. Ware averaged 4.5 yards per carry this
preseason and has capable hands out of the backfield. I believe
Ware, at some point this season, will get his shot and put up
RB #2 numbers and be a nice addition to your fantasy backfield.
Matt Ryan: Ready to become a fantasy elite
QB?
4. Matt Ryan Will Finish As A Top 5 Fantasy
Quarterback
It’s rare that a quarterback so young can make such a big
impact in the league and in fantasy football but Matt Ryan has
done so. Let’s take a look at some reasons why I think he
will make the jump to elite fantasy QB status.
Weapons: Roddy White is a borderline
elite receiver who is only getting better, has youth on his side,
and has the chemistry with Ryan to bolt the QB into the top five.
The name Tony Gonzalez pretty much speaks for itself. He’s
still in great shape, hungry for a winning season, and remains
one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the game.
Michael Turner does not contribute much directly to Ryan’s
stats but after a monster year defenses have to respect the run
game and bring safeties up in run support, leaving receivers single
covered downfield. A strong ground attack is a quarterback’s
best friend… even a fantasy quarterback..
Jerious Norwood is supposed to get more touches this year and
a lot of those targets should come in the form of screen, swing,
and check down passes. Norwood has the wheels to take it to the
house each time he gets his hands on the ball and those 3 yard
passes that turn into 60-yard gains look good on the QB stat sheet.
The underrated and no-name offensive line play well together,
return all five starters, and were 5th best in the league last
year in giving up sacks.
Experience: Most quarterbacks
say the difference between year one and two in the NFL is like
night and day. Last year Ryan had little freedom in play-calling
and had limited options in terms of controlling the offense. This
year he will better understand defensive fronts and manipulate
the offense to attack accordingly. Don’t forget, one of
Ryan’s greatest attributes coming out of college was his
football smarts, which should be utilized to its full extent this
season. In limited action this Ryan seems to have good control
of the offense and is poised for a prime year.
Extras: While the Atlanta defense
is much improved it is still not elite and if you look at the
Falcons schedule they are certainly playing a number of high-powered
offenses (New England, New Orleans (twice), Carolina (twice),
N.Y Giants, & Philadelphia). I see a lot of shootouts this
year and very few games where the Falcons will just be running
out the clock in the second half. They face their share of tough
defenses but few have the personnel to cover two elite receiving
options while still playing hard against the run. Ryan should
have a lot of opportunities to air it out this year as Atlanta
opens up the playbook allowing their franchise player to live
up to the hype.
5. Chris Simms Will Be Fantasy Relevant By
Mid Season
There are a number of factors that lead me to believe Chris
Simms will be on top of everyone’s waiver wire pick up list after
a few weeks into the regular season. Kyle
Orton is nowhere near an elite talent. To be fair, Simms is
not elite either but I believe has more upside than Orton and
has yet to be given a real shot at being a full time starter since
his spleen injury a few years ago. Orton will start at QB and
be forced to throw due to the lack of defense in Denver and because
of McDaniel’s propensity to pass. I don’t see Orton and his 58%
completion percentage flourishing in this role and with consecutive
games against New England, San Diego, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh,
a tough early schedule may land Orton on the bench. I see them
being 3-5 at best after eight games and Orton, for good reason
or not, will be the scapegoat. At that point, Simms will be given
the reigns for the remainder of the year. With a great line and
adequate weapons Simms could have some big fantasy games down
the stretch, especially since he’ll be asked to throw a good amount.
I know you are thinking “what makes Simms more likely to succeed
than Orton?” It’s a fair question and really I have no perfect
answer other than a real lack of faith in Orton’s skills and a
strong belief that Simms is a talented QB (remember, this a BOLD
prediction article). The scouting report on Simms has a strong
arm, great size, good vision, good mechanics and excellent accuracy
but a tendency to make bad throws when being pressured. I believe
Denver’s best weapon on offense may be their line giving Simms
time to go through his reads and make great throws. His recent
injury (sprained ankle) should not hold him out more than another
week or two. He may not carry a fantasy team for a whole season
but I believe he will be a great addition later in the year and
put up high end #2 QB numbers for most of the second half.
6. No Major Shakeup In The Top 12 Fantasy
Receivers
Saying things will remain the same usually isn’t taken as a
bold prediction. In the fantasy football world, however, change
occurs so much that when things stay the same from one year to
the next its a big anomaly. As FFtoday writer Joe
Kilroy recently pointed out, there were 7 changes in the top
10 from two years ago to last year and that has been the norm
over the past decade. This year, however, I believe it is even
more imperative to grab two of the top 12 wideouts because I believe
the top 12 will stay intact. Sure, there will be a little flip-flopping
within the group but in my opinion 11 of 12 receivers will be
the same as last year. My only exception is Marques
Colston rejoining the top 12, replacing Antonio
Bryant.
When I look down the list of the top 12 I see a lot of talent,
but I also see little or no drop off or change in situation that
would cause any of these receivers to fall down the ranks. In
fact many of them are entering the year with an improved situation
including Randy
Moss, Calvin
Johnson, Roddy
White, and Anquan
Boldin. What makes me even more confident in this prediction
is the lack of elite talent below the top 12. There will certainly
be guys that move up, perhaps even 10 or more spots, but I don’t
see a single receiver that has the combination of talent and situation
to move in amongst the elite. Among that group are over the hill
veterans (Driver, Mason, Coles, Bruce, Ward), possession guys
(Welker, Walter, Cotchery, Moore), and up and comers (Hester,
Gonzalez, Breaston, Ginn), but none of them have the combination
of elite skill, big play ability, consistency, and frequency of
looks that I believe it will make them an elite fantasy receiver.
This year, let others try to find those mid-round gems while you
lock up two top 12 guys in the first 4 rounds and be confident
that you’ll have a clear advantage at the position.
7. Randy McMichael Will Finish As A Top 10 Fantasy
Tight End
As every good fantasy player knows a key to success is finding
those late-round gems or waiver wire pickups to help you win a
few games or carry you for a span during the year. While no tight
end is going to carry a whole team I believe you can find one
in McMichael that will make a fantasy impact but only cost you
a final round pick or just a waiver wire pick up.
After an early season injury cut short his 2008 campaign many
people have forgotten just how good McMichael was just a short
time ago. He posted 60+ catches for three straight years in Miami
while consistently being a top 7 fantasy tight end. His first
year with the Rams was less productive but much of that had to
do with the offensive scheme and some minor injuries.
This year McMichael has fresh legs and feels physically better
than he has in a long time. And hey, what do you know? It’s
a contract year! At 30 years old, McMichael is looking for one
more lucrative contact to close out his career. The Rams are now
running a west coast offense and McMichael should benefit with
short, quick passes and redzone looks. The other Rams receivers
are young and inexperienced making McMichael a big, attractive
target over the middle for Bulger. Donnie Avery has returned from
this foot injury and should provide McMichael more room, as defenses
must protect against the deep ball. Defenses may be preoccupied
with all-pro Steven Jackson, thus giving the tight end even more
freedom for opportunities. Finally, the Rams may be better than
last year but expect them to be behind in a good amount of their
games, allowing Bulger to have 30+ attempts allowing McMichael
the chance to be a top ten fantasy tight end.
8. San Diego Will Finish As The #1 Fantasy Defense
The Chargers will finish as the #1 fantasy defense, making them
an excellent value for where they are being drafted.
Schedule: Take a look at the
majority of offenses the Chargers play and one word comes to mind;
unimpressed. With matchups against Oakland twice, the Chiefs twice,
and Denver twice these are teams that have a few playmakers, but
won’t be confused with the top offenses in the league. Also
on the schedule are the Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, and Titans,
all with relatively conservative, run-first offenses that typically
don’t post a lot of points. Even some of the better offenses
they play have real vulnerabilities; the Giants (lack of WR options)
the Steelers (below average offensive line), and the Bengals (offensive
line ditto).
Talent: The Bolts have elite
talents on all levels of their defense. Jamal Williams and Luis
Castillo anchor the line; 2 big bodies who can collapse the pocket
and allow the linebackers more freedom to move in space. At linebacker
you have Shawne Merriman returning who, when healthy, is one of
the best in the game at getting to the quarterback and creating
big plays. The Chargers used their 1st round pick this year on
Larry English who is versatile enough to lineup on the line or
as a linebacker and has the power and pass rushing skills to contribute
right away. Don’t forget Shaun Phillips, who is above average
at the linebacker position. In the secondary, Antonio Cromartie
and Quentin Jammer make up one of the best starting corner duos
in the league. Both have good size and athleticism and have shown
the ability to create turnovers and big plays. At safety Eric
Weddle is a solid starter that led all defensive backs in tackles
last year and will only get better entering his third season.
History: I’m not usually
one to base future performance on past history but just two seasons
ago the Chargers were a top 3 fantasy defense with relatively
the same team. Struck with injuries and a couple underperformers
the defense regressed in ‘08 but a return to health and
weak opponents within the division should vault the Bolts atop
the team defensive stats by the end of ’09.
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