8/30/11
Every draft pick you make could be the difference between fantasy
glory and fantasy doom, so it is important that you make every pick
count. Here are my list of ten players who, based on their ADP and
situation, you should avoid at all costs during your draft.
Note: ADP based on 10-team standard scoring league.
Quarterbacks:
(ADP: 4.10)
At some point this year Manning will play football, most likely
at a high level. The problem is, nobody seems to know exactly when
this will happen. Even if Manning plays the first week, which is
looking more and more doubtful, he will certainly have to shake
off the rust, and from what we know of his healing process, the
injury may not fully heal for many weeks into the season. The injury
of course raises all sorts of red flags on drafting Manning, but
the truth is, even if Manning were 100% right now, there are several
other QBs who should offer similar stats at a lower draft position.
Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Ryan can all
be drafted one to three rounds after Manning, and all have the potential
to match or outshine with less risk.
(ADP: 11.07)
Depending on your league size, Kolb may or may not be drafted as
a starter; but I included him here because the hype train seems
to be at full speed and I believe it is a bit premature. Kolb certainly
has some talent, and he will be throwing to one of the league’s
best wideouts, but that is where the good news ends. The truth is,
the games that Kolb has played well in have been against lesser
talent, the Cardinals do not really have anyone to throw to besides
Fitzgerald, the offensive line is far from elite, and the running
game will probably be even worse than last year. I have seen Kolb
going as high as the mid-ninth round, and I believe this is a total
reach considering the other quarterbacks available. Joe Flacco and
Jay Cutler are two guys that stand out to me as better choices than
Kolb—and they are going later.
Running Backs:
(ADP: 2.04)
McFadden had a breakout year in 2010, but I do not expect similar
numbers from him this year, and because he is being drafted as a
low-end RB1, he will indeed be a draft killer. We all know about
McFadden’s injury history, which is reason enough to drop him down
a bit, but that is just where the problems start. The Raiders certainly
have some speed at receiver, but at this point they don’t have a
single guy who will force teams to take guys out of the box to defend
the pass. Their best pass catcher in 2010 was Zach Miller, whose
defection to Seattle means even more defensive attention on Oakland’s
run. Add this all to the fact that the O-line took a hit by losing
Robert Gallery, and the defense will probably take a step back with
the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha (meaning more shootouts), and you have
a situation that would be difficult for any running back, much less
an injury-prone one who has had only one successful season (under
a different coach, no less). Around the spot at which most are taking
McFadden, I’d much rather have Matt
Forte, Frank
Gore, Michael
Turner, or Steven
Jackson, who can come close to matching McFadden’s upside while
having a much better track record of success.
You're overpaying for Peyton Hillis as
a high-end RB2.
(ADP: 3.06)
No, it is not because of the Madden curse that I include Hillis
in this list, but if you believe in that sort of thing, then this
should only confirm your feelings. I think Hillis is a fine player
and relatively safe to put up decent numbers, but to get him you
will have to significantly overpay— reason enough to be labeled
a draft killer. Hillis is a tough runner who should get most of
the goal-line carries behind a good offensive line, but those are
about the only positives. He clearly wore down last year, and he
is likely to do the same this year if given a similar workload.
The offense around Hillis is very conservative, and defenses will
be concentrating most of their attention on the run since there
are no other dangerous playmakers on the team. In addition, Montario
Hardesty, who the Browns drafted high last year, will certainly
be worked into the mix to lessen the load, and chances are the Browns
will find a way to get Brandon Jackson involved on passing downs
once he returns from his turf toe injury. At the price of a high-end
RB2, you could certainly do better with guys like Shonn
Greene, Ahmad
Bradshaw, LeGarrette
Blount, and even Felix
Jones, who are all being drafted behind Hillis and offer bigger
upside.
(ADP: 7.03)
Green-Ellis had a breakout year in 2010 thanks in large part to
getting most of the goal-line carries for the Patriots. The trouble
is that Belichick is famous for using a committee approach with
his stable of running backs, and the stable got even larger this
year: Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen have been added to the mix.
With Vereen being a second-round pick and Ridley having an excellent
preseason, both will steal some carries from BJGE this year, possibly
even at the goal line. Add this to the fact that Danny Woodhead
has the third-down back position locked up, and the opportunity
for BJGE to produce is even smaller than last year. Finally, the
Patriots love to throw the ball on any down and situation, and BJGE
is not much of a pass catcher (only 12 receptions in 2010), so do
not expect big numbers in that regard either. If you are looking
for a RB in the early seventh round, do yourself a favor and pass
on BJGE. Instead, look for guys like Fred Jackson, Joseph Addai,
and Tim Hightower, who can all be had later and will probably out-produce
“the lawfirm” anyway.
(ADP: 7.04)
What do you get when you have a back who does not catch many passes,
averages less than four yards per carry, has a ton of carries over
the past two years, and will now see more eight-man fronts than
at any point in his career? A big disappointment is the answer,
and it comes in the form of Cedric Benson. Benson was not bad last
year, but most of his fantasy points were reliant on touchdowns
because, despite getting a ton of touches (321), he only eclipsed
the 100-yard mark in three games. This year he has a rookie quarterback
and less imposing receiving threats around him to take the heat
off the running game. With much more explosive RBs available around
Benson’s ADP, do yourself a favor and take someone with some real
upside (Beanie
Wells, Mike
Tolbert, even Reggie
Bush) who may actually win some games for you, rather than just
fill a roster spot as dead weight.
Wide Receivers:
(ADP: 5.10)
There was a stretch last year where Colston fooled us into thinking
he might be back to his former elite WR self, but this hope was
quickly dashed when he got hurt… again. Now, after yet another knee
surgery, let us not be fooled again by distant memories of greatness.
Besides the injury risk that Colston will carry with him for the
rest of his career, the Saints’ other wide receivers have emerged
over the past few years, and for once the team may actually have
a real goal-line back in Mark Ingram. Ingram may vulture touchdowns
from Colston, who has been one of Brees’ favorite red-zone targets.
With all the risk Colston brings, skip him on draft day and aim
for a receiver around the same ADP with higher upside and a safer
path to success. These guys would include Steve
Johnson, Santonio
Holmes, and Jeremy
Maclin.
(ADP: 4.04)
In 2010, Bowe finally had the year many thought he should have had
when he first entered the league. After being somewhat of a bust
his first few seasons, Bowe led the league in touchdown receptions
last year and put up respectable yardage totals as well. The scary
thing about taking Bowe is that not only will his abnormally high
touchdown numbers drop, but defenses have caught onto his act and
he may slow down significantly this year. Including the Chiefs’
playoff loss and their last five games of the regular season, Bowe
averaged just a little more than two receptions per game and had
only one touchdown. The Chiefs also used a first-round pick on wide
receiver Jonathan Baldwin and signed a Todd Haley favorite, Steve
Breaston. These two will both take targets away from Bowe. There
is no doubt that Bowe is talented and will certainly have some good
games, but at his ADP, you are paying a high-end WR2 price—or even
a low-end WR1 price—for a guy who will likely be a very low-end
WR2. Instead of killing your draft by taking Bowe, grab a guy like
Wes
Welker or Brandon
Marshall who has a similar upside with a more proven track record.
(ADP: 8.09)
As a free agent, Rice had the opportunity to go where he could have
a great quarterback throwing him perfect balls many times a game
and be among an excellent supporting cast. Instead, Rice chose Seattle,
where they might just have the worst quarterback situation in the
league and where there is very little talent to take the pressure
off Rice. Add this to the fact that Rice is coming off a major hip
injury and still recovering from other minor issues, and you have
the makings of an absolutely cringe-worthy year. At his current
ADP, Rice is not a huge risk, but in that range there are many other
players on more stable offenses that could help your team much more
than Rice will. Go for Lance Moore, Mike Thomas, or Lee Evans instead.
Tight Ends:
(ADP: 4.05)
Just as most people would advise not breaking the ice on defenses
early, the same could be said for tight ends, and Gates is almost
always the first taken. I know, I know, he was having an epic season
last year before getting hurt, on par with any first-tier fantasy
WR in the league. The thing is, he did get hurt (again), and Gates
was the only above-average pass-catching talent in San Diego for
much of the year. Gates is still dealing with foot and toe issues,
and Vincent
Jackson is back this season and may actually get targeted more
than Gates. In addition, a healthy Ryan Matthews may mean a bit
less passing, and Mike Tolbert at the goal-line may mean less red-zone
targets for Gates. While Gates will more than likely finish as a
top-3 or top-4 tight end again, he is being taken a full one to
three rounds before other tight ends who will likely put up similar
stats. Instead of killing your draft by taking Gates in the fourth,
take a different position. Then grab a guy like Dallas
Clark, Jason
Witten, or Vernon
Davis later, and count on top-5 tight end numbers.
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
|
