8/26/12
The first few rounds of the draft are often the most exciting, with
everyone drafting big name studs and filling their starting lineups
with household names. But the last few rounds, and sometimes even
the waiver wire, are often where fantasy championships are won.
A quick look at just last year helps to prove my point. Here are
players drafted after the 10th round that far outperformed their
ADP: Jordy
Nelson (11.02), Aaron
Hernandez (11.06), Antonio
Brown (11.06), DeMarco
Murray (13.05), and Cam
Newton (13.10). Just one year later and all these guys are being
drafted in the first five rounds! The following is my attempt to
pick 10 guys who are being drafted after the 10th round that I believe
have a good chance of playing like guys being taken five or more
rounds earlier. Some of these are really deep sleepers, but that
is part of the fun. Plus I'm tired of seeing every site labeling
the same guys as sleepers, which makes them quickly become non-sleepers.
Note: ADP based on 12-team, standard scoring leagues.
QB
Carson Palmer, OAK
ADP: 11.04
Palmer was placed in an almost impossible situation when the Raiders
traded for him nearly halfway through the season last year. He was
joining a new team after sitting out six weeks, and with almost
no time to learn the playbook or develop any chemistry with his
receivers. With all this considered, he actually had a decent year,
averaging almost 300 yards per game in the final nine weeks. Palmer
may be on the wrong side of 30, but he still has back-to-back 4000-yard
seasons on his resume and a career completion percentage of over
60. In his favor are a young and emerging receiving unit led by
Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Jacoby Ford, who all have
near-elite speed and run-after-catch ability. Add that to a strong
run game to take the pressure off the passing game and you have
a situation where Palmer should be able to spread the ball around
and put up some big numbers. Will he be a top 5 fantasy QB? Most
likely not, but as a guy being drafted as a low-end backup, I believe
a perfect storm may be brewing in Oakland where Palmer may just
crack the top 10 of fantasy QBs, making him an absolute steal in
the 11th round.
QB
Russell Wilson, SEA
ADP: undrafted
Ok, so this one is not for the faint of heart, and unless you are
in a huge (20-plus team) league, I would not recommend taking Wilson
as your starter; but hear me out on this one. Wilson is short by
NFL quarterback standards (5’11”), but if you have watched
this guy play, you've probably gotten the feeling that he has that
certain special something. I realize it's only preseason, but look
at Wilson’s stats through three games: 35 of 52 (67%), 464
yards, 5 TDs to 1 INT, and 10 runs for 150 yards (and 1 TD). I’m
sure that like any rookie Wilson will have his growing pains, but
his craftiness and mobility will get him out of situations in which
others would get stuck. Wilson has the accuracy, legs, brains, and
intangibles to succeed in this league, and it could start as early
as this year. As for his situation, it's not as bad as some people
may think. For fantasy QBs, Seattle has the sixth most favorable
schedule this season while their receivers actually have the most
favorable fantasy schedule. The Seattle offensive line should be
better than most and, if healthy (a problem last year), could actually
be near-elite. The playmakers around Wilson (Rice, Edwards, Tate,
Baldwin, etc.) are not elite, but they are fairly deep. If they
stay healthy also, they could be better than the average NFL receiving
corps. Look, I’m not saying Wilson will be an automatic stud
this year, but as a guy going undrafted in most leagues, he has
the upside to be one of the best backup fantasy QBs in the game,
with the potential to successfully start a few games for you in
a pinch.
RB
Daniel Thomas, MIA
ADP: 12.03
A year ago Thomas was considered one of fantasy’s top rookies
and was being drafted in the seventh round. Fast forward through
a pretty awful rookie season and a breakout year from Reggie Bush
as the Dolphins' starter, and Thomas is basically an afterthought
come draft time. While he probably isn’t going to be the next
Arian Foster, there is reason to believe that Thomas could go from
dud to near-stud in 2012. The only real company he has in Miami
is Reggie Bush and rookie Lamar Miller, both of whom have checkered
injury histories and lack the power potential that Thomas possesses.
While we all know Bush is an excellent receiver out of the backfield,
Thomas actually has pretty good hands himself and could be a three-down
back if the cards fall the right way. With his new coach and offensive
scheme this year, Thomas should be given a chance to start fresh
and perhaps push Bush back to more of a third-down role. In my mind,
the Dolphins, who greatly lack dynamic playmakers, may actually
be better off splitting Bush out wide and having Thomas be the feature
guy in the backfield. While Miami is not likely to produce a top
10 RB this year, I believe Thomas has a decent chance of far outperforming
his average draft status as the 48th RB off the board.
RB
Mikel Leshoure, DET
ADP: 10.11
As the guy with the highest ADP on my list here, Leshoure may actually
have the most to overcome—but also perhaps the highest ceiling.
Besides having to recover from a torn Achilles, he is already suspended
for the first two games of the season for drug possession, and he
is in a three-man running back committee on a pass-first team. While
it's possible that he will not fully recover from his injury or
will be stuck on the bench most of the year, I prefer to look on
the bright side of what-if. Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best, the only
running backs on the team who have any real shot at getting more
touches than Leshoure, are two of the more injury-prone backs in
recent memory. Best, in fact, will begin the season on the PUP list,
and there are rumblings that he may even miss the entire year due
to his concussion history. A 2011 second-round pick, Leshoure has
the combination of size, speed, burst, and hands that led many scouts
to believe he could be a feature NFL back someday. Even in a pass-heavy
offense, Leshoure has the ability to catch passes and the power
to punch it in from the goal line, which the Lions should be close
to plenty this season. With an elite group of skill players in the
passing game, Leshoure should not see many loaded boxes when he
gets his opportunity, and lots of early leads may mean a little
more running the clock out for the high-scoring Lions. While you
won’t be able to count on Leshoure the first few weeks of
the season, he certainly has the skill and situation to propel him
from a late 10th-round pick to a guy who produces like a top 15
RB in the last 12 to 14 weeks of the 2012 season.
Kendall Hunter: A rising star in the 49ers
backfield.
RB
Kendall Hunter, SF
ADP: 13.08
With Frank Gore as the 49ers' starting running back, the team's
drafting of LaMichael James, and their signing of Brandon Jacobs,
Kendall Hunter may be a forgotten man in the minds of many fantasy
managers. Hunter might be in the middle of a traffic jam in the
49ers backfield, but I believe he has an excellent chance of ending
up as their best fantasy RB. In a limited backup role last year,
Hunter displayed excellent burst, great vision, and surprisingly
decent power. While Gore played a ton more snaps, Hunter trailed
him in receptions by just one and actually put up 81 more receiving
yards. Hunter has also been having one of the best camps of any
49er, and Coach Harbaugh singled him out as someone who “could
have a big year.” Gore's health is always in question (he
has played a full 16 games in only two of his seven seasons in the
league), James is a rookie, and Jacobs is basically washed up, so
Hunter actually has a shot at being a workhorse type of back for
at least part of the season. On a conservative, run-based team with
a stingy defense, any running back who gets a handful of touches
each game is worth something, but with Hunter, I believe the sky’s
the limit if the situation presents itself. As a Gore owner I would
consider Hunter one of the better handcuffs in the league, but even
without Gore on my roster, I’d take a flier on Hunter as a
high-upside, low-risk backup.
RB
Lance Ball, DEN
ADP: undrafted
Nobody will mistake Lance Ball for the next Barry Sanders; he has
average acceleration, marginal power, and pedestrian speed. What
Ball does have, however, is a roster spot in a backfield that could
produce decent fantasy numbers. His competition is a one-dimensional,
near-31-year-old (McGahee), a former first-round bust coming off
an ACL tear (Moreno), and an unheralded rookie who has missed most
of training camp with injuries (Hillman). With the addition of Peyton
Manning, many believe the Broncos will become more pass-heavy, but
John Fox will still likely lean on the run, especially until Manning
can prove that he's still an elite quarterback. While Ball is not
an elite talent himself, he is consistent and reliable in the details
of the game: catching the football, pass blocking, and gaining positive
yardage. Ball has looked good this preseason and should open the
year as the No. 2 running back behind McGahee, and he'll probably
receive some touches on third downs right away. If Denver does become
more pass-heavy, Ball may see even more time on the field and become
a decent flex play in larger leagues. If you have the bench space,
take Ball in the final couple of rounds and watch Denver closely
the first few weeks. If Ball gains the trust of Manning and the
coaching staff, he may just be the Denver RB to own this year.
WR
Donald Jones, BUF
ADP: undrafted
I know the Bills offense doesn’t exactly get fantasy team
owners overly excited, but the fact remains that they are going
to throw the ball a good amount and somebody other than just Steve
Johnson is going to have to contribute. Donald Jones is not going
to turn into the next Megatron anytime soon, but he does have some
things going for him this year. First, he is the starting receiver
opposite Johnson in the Bills offense, which should lean more toward
the pass in Chan Gailey’s scheme. Second, Jones is entering
his third season and has had a full training camp at full health
to develop chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the rest of the offense.
Finally, as a decent-sized (6’0’’, 209) wideout
with smooth route-running ability and good body control, Jones has
flashed some playmaking ability in limited action, including a 100-yard
effort against the Patriots last year. By all accounts, he is a
hard worker who blocks well and always gives good effort, meaning
he should be on the field a ton this year. I look for Jones to get
85 or more targets and a handful of touchdowns, making him a decent
WR3 or flex play most weeks— much better than the 15 to 20
WRs that are currently being drafted ahead of him.
WR
Eddie Royal, SD
ADP: undrafted
Eddie Royal has had a very unusual career thus far. After putting
up 91 catches and nearly 1,000 yards his rookie year with Denver,
he basically disappeared his second year, then had a decent bounce-back
season in his third, only to disappear again and get hurt last season.
Nothing like a good change of scenery to fix what may be hurting
you, I say. In San Diego, Royal should be the Chargers' primary
slot man while Meachem and Floyd operate on the outside. To me this
is the perfect situation in which a guy like Royal can thrive. Meachem
and Floyd have some natural talent but neither has lived up to their
hype, even though they both have had excellent quarterbacks throwing
to them (Brees and Rivers). That being said, they, along with stud
tight end Antonio Gates, should certainly do enough to keep defenses
honest and open up a lot of underneath routes for Royal in what
should be a pass-heavy attack. Also, many have questioned whether
Rivers' arm strength is diminishing rapidly. If their speculations
are correct, Royal would benefit because Rivers may feel more comfortable
dumping it off to him and letting him get some major yards after
the catch. Finally, it is worth noting that in his only great fantasy
season (2009) Royal had an excellent quarterback throwing to him
(Cutler), but since then he has had way below-average talent behind
center (Orton, Tebow, etc.). Philip Rivers may be just what the
doctor ordered to revitalize Royal’s career. If all things
fall into place the way I believe they will, Royal could be a poor
man’s Wes Welker this year, approaching 90 targets and gaining
close to 1,000 yards. Between his talent, the situation around him,
and his change of scenery, I think Royal could surprise many and
outperform the 20 or more receivers being drafted ahead of him this
year.
WR
Steve Smith, STL
ADP: 14.03
Although it’s only been three years since Smith caught 107
balls for 1,220 yards for the Giants, it seems like twice as long,
since he basically disappeared for two subsequent seasons after
undergoing microfracture surgery. He does not possess ideal size,
quickness or speed for a wide receiver, but his route running, concentration
and hands probably rank among the game’s best. Although the
injury that made his last two seasons forgettable has sapped a bit
of Smith’s athleticism, he is still only 26 years old and
has thus far received nothing but positive reports this summer,
both health-wise and in terms of production. The Rams drafted Brian
Quick this year to be their eventual No. 1 receiver, but he is very
raw and will take time to develop. The rest of the Rams' receiving
corps is underwhelming, so Smith should be able to crack the starting
lineup without much problem. The offense will not approach the passing
numbers the Rams compiled back in the day with Kurt Warner, but
they do have a promising (and finally healthy) young quarterback
in Sam Bradford and just enough of a run game to keep defenses honest.
While I’m not expecting numbers anywhere near Smith’s
’09 campaign, I certainly can see him having a great rebound
year and finishing in the top 40 WRs, making him an excellent value
considering he’s being drafted as the 61st WR on average.
TE
Kyle Rudolph, MIN
ADP: 13.05
The opinion on Rudolph this year ranges from potential stud to “Who
is Kyle Rudolph”? You can count me among the former group because
I believe Rudolph, as the 16th tight end off the board, is a steal
who will end up in the top ten. He is big (6’6’’, 260), has soft
hands and runs very well for a guy his size. Before getting injured
in college, he was projected as a first-round talent. Then, with
a rookie quarterback and a shortened offseason, he faded into the
background even more his first year. Besides Percy
Harvin, the Vikings are lacking consistent targets in the passing
game, and Christian
Ponder has really seemed to develop a chemistry with Rudolph
this summer. The Vikings also signed John
Carlson in the offseason, but he has been banged up for much
of the summer and will be far behind Rudolph by the time he gets
back and comfortable on the field. While others in your league are
drafting TEs in the fifth through eighth rounds, wait a few more
rounds and jump on the Rudolph bandwagon with me. He will almost
certainly put up similar numbers to those TEs, but at a much better
value.
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
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