Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




 Log In  | Sign Up  |  Contact      




 

Bill Anderson | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer
 

Under the Radar: Deep Sleepers
8/26/14

With all of the attention fantasy football, and the NFL in general, gets nowadays, it is becoming harder and harder to really find legitimate “sleepers” anymore. Needless to say, there are still guys that, for whatever reason, seem to slip through the cracks every year and are going past the midway point in drafts but break out to have big years. Last year Josh Gordon (ADP 8.02), Michael Floyd (ADP 10.04), Alshon Jeffery (ADP 10.10) and Kendall Wright (ADP 14.03) fit the category. Here is this year’s: a group of players that I believe could contribute far and above their current ADP.

QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN
ADP: N/A

This one is like an endless pit, winter hibernation-type deep sleeper, but he is much more fun to discuss over picks like Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler and Johnny Manziel, who some experts call “sleepers” even though everyone in the world knows about them. With the quarterback position very deep this year, especially in 12-team standard leagues where you can consistently get a solid starter in the eighth round or later, I’d rather highlight a player who will go undrafted in all redraft leagues but could conceivably, if things fell the right way, make a big impact at the position. With this being said, I’m not advocating taking Mettenberger in all but the deepest leagues, as finding even two solid quarterbacks to roster is not a difficult task. Hear me out, though, on why you should pay attention to him and his situation this year.

Mettenberger, by many accounts was one of, if not the most, physically-talented quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Despite having very limited mobility, he possesses ideal size (6’5,”, 225 lbs.), has a rocket arm and can make all the throws needed at this level. Despite having some off-field incidents, Mettenberger is actually known as a good leader and a tough, competitive player who is not afraid to take a hit in order to get the ball downfield. Mettenberger has experience playing in a pro-style offense and is the type of quarterback that Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt covets. Speaking of the Titans, the stage is set in my mind for Mettenberger to flourish if given the chance. First, starting quarterback Jake Locker is injury-prone and inconsistent , as well as entering the final year of his contract. Second, the offensive line has improved and considered a strength of the team. Third, with Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Delanie Walker, the Titans boast a trio of solid receiving options – plus Bishop Sankey as a check-down option – that can attack all levels of the defense. Finally, the Titans defense is suspect and thus, could put the team in shootout situations that would theoretically boost the fantasy production from the quarterback position. Of course, the cards would have to fall a certain way just for Mettenberger to get a shot, but I believe that if that window opens just a crack, he has the tools, the surroundings and the support to smash through that window and actually become a solid spot fantasy starter in his first year in the league.

RB Alfred Blue, HOU
ADP: N/A

Alfred Blue is going undrafted right now but he is someone to keep a very close eye on in the coming weeks. Currently third on the Texans depth chart at running back, Blue could emerge as a legitimate fantasy starter if the chips fall the right way. With a declining and injury-prone Arian Foster as the starter, chances are Blue will get a shot at some point this year to make some noise. If Foster stays healthy all 16 games then Blue won’t have much value, but there are very few people out there, myself included, who believe Foster can make it through eight games, much less all 16. Foster is already dealing with hamstring issues in training camp and assuming he does miss some time, only Jonathan Grimes – currently second on the depth chart – stands in the way of Blue making a significant impact. While both guys have had strong preseasons, Grimes reminds me of a JAG (“just a guy”), whereas Blue has the look of a legit starter. Grimes has more experience and is more trusted by the coaches, but Blue has the all the measurables you look for in a starting running back, while coming from a pro-style offense. The coaching staff is invested in Blue, drafting him this past May. If Blue does get that opportunity this year, as I believe he will, the situation he falls into is a good one, as the Texans should be running the ball quite a bit behind a decent offensive line. Enough talent in the receiving positions will make defenses respect the pass regardless of the mediocre quarterback they have under center, With an improved defense and a more creative play-caller I could see Blue getting 18 or more touches a game if Foster were out, making him a solid RB2 at the very least.

Lance Dunbar

Dunbar can provide nice RB depth to your PPR team.

RB Lance Dunbar, DAL
ADP: 13.12

Lance Dunbar is not that deep of a sleeper – he’s more of a must-draft backup. Apparently most drafters aren't treating him as such, as he is not getting taken until almost the 14th round as the No. 59 running back on average. I have him in the mid-to-upper 30’s in my running back rankings. Dunbar has a lot of positives going for him this year but with DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and Tony Romo getting all the attention in Dallas, he is flying relatively low on the fantasy radar and he shouldn’t be. He plays behind a running back who, although relatively healthy last season, is a known injury risk. Second, new play-caller Scott Linehan loves to throw the ball, loves to use multiple running backs and loves to throw to those backs. Dunbar is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Third, the Cowboys boast one of the league’s better offensive lines, and with great protection and the threat of the pass, there should be some consistently big holes for the backs to slip through. Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, coaches in Dallas have already said they have big plans for Dunbar this season and purposely sat him out of preseason games just to have him fresh for the regular season. In my mind Dunbar is more than a handcuff, as he could have solid flex value, especially in PPR leagues, even if Murray is healthy the whole year. If Murray were to miss time, Dunbar’s value would only increase with the extra volume he would receive. For a guy you could spot start most weeks, Dunbar is undervalued by three-to-four rounds in most drafts.

WR Brandon LaFell, NE
ADP: 14.02

Currently being taken in the early 14th round, Brandon LaFell is being looked over for several reasons. First, he is not a flashy name. Instead, he is a veteran that has not produced much so far in his career. Second, after spending the first part of his career with the Panthers, LaFell is on a Patriots team with much bigger names on a crowded depth chart. While both these reasons are legitimate, there is also good reason to believe LaFell could still contribute nicely as a third or possibly even a second wide receiver. He has considerable talent, even though it may not have translated into big numbers in Carolina. At 62,” 210 lbs., LaFell has good size, adequate speed and most importantly on a Patriots team, very good field awareness and route-running ability. He is also an above-average run blocker, meaning it could be hard to take him off the field in any given down and distance. The Patriots receiving corps is indeed deep with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Kenbrell Thompkins, but each one of those guys is a significant injury risk, other than perhaps Edelman. If LaFell should find his way into the lineup, the volume alone should be enough to make him starter-worthy, seeing a handful of red-zone targets every week. While LaFell, at this stage of his career is not a “sexy” pick, he may just be the smarter one.

WR Cody Latimer, DEN
ADP: N/A

Going even deeper than LaFell, Cody Latimer is currently going undrafted in most mocks so far, but I believe has a very good chance of becoming an every-week flex option before the midway point of the season. While it is true that most rookie wide receivers find it hard adjusting to the NFL game right away, sometimes the specific situation and player can buck the odds. Latimer is a legit size-speed combination type player that is proficient at run-blocking and terrific at going up and getting contested balls. While the Broncos already have an elite size-speed guy in Demaryius Thomas, defenses are well aware of what he can do and will often double team him when possible, especially near the end zone. Latimer is the perfect guy for the Broncos to bring in around the red zone, as he, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas provide a trio of big targets for Peyton Manning. With this type of usage alone Latimer could be a spot starter in standard scoring leagues. The uncertainty surrounding the recent concussion of Wes Welker only helps to increase his long-term value. If Welker were to miss any significant amount of time, which I see as the most likely scenario, Emmanuel Sanders would move into the slot, giving Latimer the start on the outside. If either Thomas or Sanders would get injured, Latimer would also step into a starting role, as Welker is not suited to play outside receiver consistently. This is a perfect situation for the rookie to be in. It looks more and more like a perfect bench stash that could pay off big in just a matter of weeks.

TE Dwayne Allen, IND
ADP: N/A

The tight end position is very deep this year for fantasy purposes, with solid starters going as low as the 13th round. So, let’s go even deeper and take a look at a guy who is going undrafted in most leagues but could surprise as a possible top-12 tight end in standard scoring leagues. Dwayne Allen burst onto the scene as a rookie two years ago and caught 45 balls for 521 yards and three touchdowns – a respectable total for a rookie tight end, especially on a mediocre offense with a rookie quarterback. Last year Allen missed almost the entire regular season – he played one game and caught one ball for a touchdown – and needed hip surgery that sidelined him for six months. While Allen’s teammate Coby Fleener was supposed to be a breakout fantasy star at the position in Allen’s absence, Fleener was average at best. With Allen back to full health and a better all-around tight end than Fleener, he should play a ton of snaps on a team that could be one of the better offenses in the AFC this year. The offense should feature two tight end’s frequently, keeping targets to a minimum and thus keeping Allen from being one of fantasy’s elite. I truly believe, he has a legitimate chance of leading all tight ends in touchdowns. With a very questionable run game and receivers that are more flash and speed than size and strength, Allen may get more than a handful of passes thrown his way from within the 10-yard line. He makes a great TE2, especially if you are waiting on the position until late in your draft. He will be an every-week starter for the Colts and with a bit of luck, perhaps your fantasy team too.

Suggestions, comments? E-mail me.