With all of the attention fantasy football, and the NFL in general,
gets nowadays, it is becoming harder and harder to really find legitimate
“sleepers” anymore. Needless to say, there are still guys that,
for whatever reason, seem to slip through the cracks every year
and are going past the midway point in drafts but break out to have
big years. Last year Josh
Gordon (ADP 8.02), Michael
Floyd (ADP 10.04), Alshon
Jeffery (ADP 10.10) and Kendall
Wright (ADP 14.03) fit the category. Here is this year’s: a
group of players that I believe could contribute far and above their
current ADP.
QB
Zach Mettenberger, TEN
ADP: N/A
This one is like an endless pit, winter hibernation-type deep
sleeper, but he is much more fun to discuss over picks like Carson
Palmer, Jay
Cutler and Johnny
Manziel, who some experts call “sleepers” even though everyone
in the world knows about them. With the quarterback position very
deep this year, especially in 12-team standard leagues where you
can consistently get a solid starter in the eighth round or later,
I’d rather highlight a player who will go undrafted in all redraft
leagues but could conceivably, if things fell the right way, make
a big impact at the position. With this being said, I’m not advocating
taking Mettenberger in all but the deepest leagues, as finding
even two solid quarterbacks to roster is not a difficult task.
Hear me out, though, on why you should pay attention to him and
his situation this year.
Mettenberger, by many accounts was one of, if not the most, physically-talented
quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Despite having very limited
mobility, he possesses ideal size (6’5,”, 225 lbs.), has a rocket
arm and can make all the throws needed at this level. Despite
having some off-field incidents, Mettenberger is actually known
as a good leader and a tough, competitive player who is not afraid
to take a hit in order to get the ball downfield. Mettenberger
has experience playing in a pro-style offense and is the type
of quarterback that Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt covets. Speaking
of the Titans, the stage is set in my mind for Mettenberger to
flourish if given the chance. First, starting quarterback Jake
Locker is injury-prone and inconsistent , as well as entering
the final year of his contract. Second, the offensive line has
improved and considered a strength of the team. Third, with Kendall
Wright, Justin
Hunter and Delanie
Walker, the Titans boast a trio of solid receiving options
– plus Bishop
Sankey as a check-down option – that can attack all levels
of the defense. Finally, the Titans defense is suspect and thus,
could put the team in shootout situations that would theoretically
boost the fantasy production from the quarterback position. Of
course, the cards would have to fall a certain way just for Mettenberger
to get a shot, but I believe that if that window opens just a
crack, he has the tools, the surroundings and the support to smash
through that window and actually become a solid spot fantasy starter
in his first year in the league.
RB
Alfred Blue, HOU
ADP: N/A
Alfred
Blue is going undrafted right now but he is someone to keep
a very close eye on in the coming weeks. Currently third on the
Texans depth chart at running back, Blue could emerge as a legitimate
fantasy starter if the chips fall the right way. With a declining
and injury-prone Arian
Foster as the starter, chances are Blue will get a shot at
some point this year to make some noise. If Foster stays healthy
all 16 games then Blue won’t have much value, but there are very
few people out there, myself included, who believe Foster can
make it through eight games, much less all 16. Foster is already
dealing with hamstring issues in training camp and assuming he
does miss some time, only Jonathan
Grimes – currently second on the depth chart – stands in the
way of Blue making a significant impact. While both guys have
had strong preseasons, Grimes reminds me of a JAG (“just a guy”),
whereas Blue has the look of a legit starter. Grimes has more
experience and is more trusted by the coaches, but Blue has the
all the measurables you look for in a starting running back, while
coming from a pro-style offense. The coaching staff is invested
in Blue, drafting him this past May. If Blue does get that opportunity
this year, as I believe he will, the situation he falls into is
a good one, as the Texans should be running the ball quite a bit
behind a decent offensive line. Enough talent in the receiving
positions will make defenses respect the pass regardless of the
mediocre quarterback they have under center, With an improved
defense and a more creative play-caller I could see Blue getting
18 or more touches a game if Foster were out, making him a solid
RB2 at the very least.
Dunbar can provide nice RB depth to your
PPR team.
RB
Lance Dunbar, DAL
ADP: 13.12
Lance
Dunbar is not that deep of a sleeper – he’s more of a must-draft
backup. Apparently most drafters aren't treating him as such,
as he is not getting taken until almost the 14th round as the
No. 59 running back on average. I have him in the mid-to-upper
30’s in my running back rankings. Dunbar has a lot of positives
going for him this year but with DeMarco
Murray, Dez
Bryant and Tony
Romo getting all the attention in Dallas, he is flying relatively
low on the fantasy radar and he shouldn’t be. He plays behind
a running back who, although relatively healthy last season, is
a known injury risk. Second, new play-caller Scott Linehan loves
to throw the ball, loves to use multiple running backs and loves
to throw to those backs. Dunbar is an excellent receiver out of
the backfield. Third, the Cowboys boast one of the league’s better
offensive lines, and with great protection and the threat of the
pass, there should be some consistently big holes for the backs
to slip through. Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, coaches
in Dallas have already said they have big plans for Dunbar this
season and purposely sat him out of preseason games just to have
him fresh for the regular season. In my mind Dunbar is more than
a handcuff, as he could have solid flex value, especially in PPR
leagues, even if Murray is healthy the whole year. If Murray were
to miss time, Dunbar’s value would only increase with the extra
volume he would receive. For a guy you could spot start most weeks,
Dunbar is undervalued by three-to-four rounds in most drafts.
WR
Brandon LaFell, NE
ADP: 14.02
Currently being taken in the early 14th round, Brandon
LaFell is being looked over for several reasons. First, he
is not a flashy name. Instead, he is a veteran that has not produced
much so far in his career. Second, after spending the first part
of his career with the Panthers, LaFell is on a Patriots team
with much bigger names on a crowded depth chart. While both these
reasons are legitimate, there is also good reason to believe LaFell
could still contribute nicely as a third or possibly even a second
wide receiver. He has considerable talent, even though it may
not have translated into big numbers in Carolina. At 62,” 210
lbs., LaFell has good size, adequate speed and most importantly
on a Patriots team, very good field awareness and route-running
ability. He is also an above-average run blocker, meaning it could
be hard to take him off the field in any given down and distance.
The Patriots receiving corps is indeed deep with Rob
Gronkowski, Aaron
Dobson, Danny
Amendola, Julian
Edelman and Kenbrell
Thompkins, but each one of those guys is a significant injury
risk, other than perhaps Edelman. If LaFell should find his way
into the lineup, the volume alone should be enough to make him
starter-worthy, seeing a handful of red-zone targets every week.
While LaFell, at this stage of his career is not a “sexy” pick,
he may just be the smarter one.
WR
Cody Latimer, DEN
ADP: N/A
Going even deeper than LaFell, Cody
Latimer is currently going undrafted in most mocks so far,
but I believe has a very good chance of becoming an every-week
flex option before the midway point of the season. While it is
true that most rookie wide receivers find it hard adjusting to
the NFL game right away, sometimes the specific situation and
player can buck the odds. Latimer is a legit size-speed combination
type player that is proficient at run-blocking and terrific at
going up and getting contested balls. While the Broncos already
have an elite size-speed guy in Demaryius Thomas, defenses are
well aware of what he can do and will often double team him when
possible, especially near the end zone. Latimer is the perfect
guy for the Broncos to bring in around the red zone, as he, Demaryius
Thomas and Julius
Thomas provide a trio of big targets for Peyton
Manning. With this type of usage alone Latimer could be a
spot starter in standard scoring leagues. The uncertainty surrounding
the recent concussion of Wes
Welker only helps to increase his long-term value. If Welker
were to miss any significant amount of time, which I see as the
most likely scenario, Emmanuel
Sanders would move into the slot, giving Latimer the start
on the outside. If either Thomas or Sanders would get injured,
Latimer would also step into a starting role, as Welker is not
suited to play outside receiver consistently. This is a perfect
situation for the rookie to be in. It looks more and more like
a perfect bench stash that could pay off big in just a matter
of weeks.
TE
Dwayne Allen, IND
ADP: N/A
The tight end position is very deep this year for fantasy purposes,
with solid starters going as low as the 13th round. So, let’s
go even deeper and take a look at a guy who is going undrafted
in most leagues but could surprise as a possible top-12 tight
end in standard scoring leagues. Dwayne Allen burst onto the scene
as a rookie two years ago and caught 45 balls for 521 yards and
three touchdowns – a respectable total for a rookie tight
end, especially on a mediocre offense with a rookie quarterback.
Last year Allen missed almost the entire regular season –
he played one game and caught one ball for a touchdown –
and needed hip surgery that sidelined him for six months. While
Allen’s teammate Coby Fleener was supposed to be a breakout
fantasy star at the position in Allen’s absence, Fleener
was average at best. With Allen back to full health and a better
all-around tight end than Fleener, he should play a ton of snaps
on a team that could be one of the better offenses in the AFC
this year. The offense should feature two tight end’s frequently,
keeping targets to a minimum and thus keeping Allen from being
one of fantasy’s elite. I truly believe, he has a legitimate
chance of leading all tight ends in touchdowns. With a very questionable
run game and receivers that are more flash and speed than size
and strength, Allen may get more than a handful of passes thrown
his way from within the 10-yard line. He makes a great TE2, especially
if you are waiting on the position until late in your draft. He
will be an every-week starter for the Colts and with a bit of
luck, perhaps your fantasy team too.
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
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