Fantasy football analysis is full of overused terms that can be
interpreted in many different ways; breakouts, handcuffs, and of
course, “sleepers” just to name a few.
In the good old days sleepers were unheralded players that fantasy
owners had never even heard of. As fantasy football gained in
popularity and the internet became more prevalent, player information
became readily available and the term sleeper evolved into something
entirely different.
Depending on who you talk to today, a sleeper could be anything
from a veteran returning from injury, to a rookie, to a player
in a new situation. I’ve heard “experts” name
sleepers that consistently get drafted in the first seven rounds.
For me, a true sleeper is a player that almost nobody is drafting,
or is typically selected in the last two rounds of a draft. These
are players that amateur fantasy owners may never have heard of
and more experienced players may simply dismiss.
I now present to you my top five deep sleepers of 2016.
Looking for a Deep Sleeper? San Diego's
Tyrell Williams may be a better version of Travis Benjamin.
At 6’4’’, 207 pounds, and with off the charts
athletic numbers (4.38-40, 39.5” vertical) you would think
Williams would be a hot commodity in fantasy circles, but coming
out of a small school with just average production he has flown
under the radar for over a year.
The time has finally come for Williams and I believe he will
be owned in every league by the end of 2016.
Williams was somewhat raw and certainly unproven coming out of
college in 2015 but has reportedly made a “sizable leap”
in year two, even getting a few reps with the first team offense,
catching 7 balls for 83 yards in two preseason games. What stands
out is the way he reaches another gear so effortlessly, a gear
most NFL players don’t have. He’s got some wiggle
and even a little power, and even against first team defenses,
Williams jumps out as a superior athlete.
I predict he will have the second-most fantasy points on the
team in standard scoring leagues (not counting Rivers of course).
While Danny
Woodhead should still be a PPR dynamo, and Antonio
Gates should see 5-8 touchdowns, Williams will be the big-play
guy who could win weeks for you. While Keenan
Allen will be the focus of the offense, he is a volume, possession-type
receiver but Rivers needs another reliable option down the field.
What about Travis
Benjamin you ask? He is a one-trick pony, a lid-lifter who
will distract the defense and open things up underneath, but will
be more of a decoy than a true threat. Williams will be more of
a consistent Benjamin if you will, catching deep balls, but also
having a presence in the intermediate passing game
The Chargers are set to have one of the more pass-happy offenses
and Williams is emerging at a perfect time. Expect to see him
on all three-receiver sets, (which the Chargers run frequently),
and even some two-receiver sets as well. It’s a bold prediction,
but I believe Williams will finish the year as a top 36 fantasy
receiver, making him a steal in drafts and the waiver wire.
At the time of this writing the 49ers quarterback situations
is, shall we say, interesting? With Colin Kaepernick’s future
being up in the air and Blaine Gabbert being anything but dependable,
who is to say that a very raw, but extremely athletic sixth-round
rookie couldn’t make a significant impact this season? With
an evil genius Coach like Chip Kelly, just about anything is possible.
Driskel was supposed to be the next big thing in college football,
with a big arm, quick feet, and all the measurables you look for
in a prototypical quarterback. He started for the Florida Gators
as a sophomore but flamed out and eventually finished his career
at Louisiana Tech, putting up 4,033 passing yards and 28 touchdowns
in his final year. With near elite athleticism for the position
and sound mechanics, Driskel fell to the sixth round and has been
labeled a “project” because of his inaccuracy and
inconsistency when throwing intermediate and deep routes and his
tendency to occasionally panic in the pocket.
Driskel is “a perfect fit” in San Francisco as he
pointed out himself after being drafted. His road to becoming
a starter is clear. Blaine Gabbert did a commendable job last
season but I think everyone knows he’s not the long-term
answer. He wasn’t picked by Chip Kelly and the 49ers do
not have a lot invested in him. Kaepernick has off-field drama
and simply has never looked like an NFL-caliber quarterback since
his one good season with Coach Harbaugh several years back.
With the 49ers not expected to win more than a handful of games
this season, I believe Coach Kelly will turn to his “project”
sooner rather than later. In Kelly’s system, Driskel should
be able to play to his strengths, throwing short, quick passes,
keeping up the pace/tempo and running the designed zone-read play.
Driskel also has the arm strength to keep defenses honest with
the deep ball, especially with Torrey Smith on the outside to
lift the lid.
During the preseason, Driskel has flashed his potential, but
suffered the typical rookie hiccups while going 15/31 for 132
yards through the air. On the ground though, that’s where
I get excited for his fantasy potential, as Driskel has run 11
times for 103 yards.
While it won’t always be pretty if/when Driskel is given
the keys to the offense, I could easily envision games of 225-plus
passing yards and 75-plus rushing yards on a consistent basis.
In a fantasy friendly system, with fantasy-friendly skills for
the position, Driskel could be a mid-season savior for fantasy
owners that are struggling for explosiveness at the position.
A Patriots running back, really? Before you dismiss Gaffney as
a guy you would want anywhere near your fantasy team, hear me
out. Gaffney was originally a Carolina Panthers 6th round pick
in 2014. After getting injured and missing his rookie year, the
Patriots claimed him and he subsequently spent 2015 on injured
reserve. The Patriots, and Bill Belichick have showed faith in
Gaffney, giving him another shot this season, and it looks like
he may finally get his chance to make a mark.
Gaffney is a big back, at 6’0’’, 220 pounds
but is an excellent all-around athlete, who runs with vision,
patience, smarts, and toughness. While bigger backs normally get
knocked for their inability to catch the ball, Gaffney actually
has great hands and is also solid in pass protection. While Gaffney
doesn't possess blazing speed, he seems to do everything else
well and looks like a player that Belichick loves - smart, no-nonsense,
versatile, coachable player that gets the job done. Gaffney is
a hybrid between James White and LeGarrette Blount, a big back
that can catch the ball and if needed, could easily play a three-down
role, as well as well as punch it in at the goal line.
With Dion Lewis out until at least Week 7, perhaps longer, and
White locked in as the pass-catching back, only Blount stands
in Gaffney’s way of backfield touches. While Blount also
seems to have a special place in Belichick’s heart, Gaffney
has kept pace with in preseason games, putting up similar stats
and showing well when getting first-team reps. While I don’t
see Blount totally losing his job, I can see game scripts this
season where Gaffney could get 15-plus touches, with the potential
for both catches and touchdowns. I personally wouldn't be surprised
if Gaffney was the Patriots Week 1 starter and led the team in
touches, although I admit the chances of a timeshare are significant.
My advice is to have Gaffney on as many rosters as you can right
now because we have seen some crazy scenarios from the Patriots
backfield and you don’t want to be fighting for him on the
waiver wire. All it may take is one good game to begin the season
and he may hold onto that starting job all year long.
TE Erik Swoope, IND
When the Colts signed Swoope as an undrafted free agent in 2014,
he had played exactly zero games of organized football. As a four-year
player on the Miami Hurricanes basketball team, Swoope had the
athleticism and size (6’5’’ 260) of an NFL tight
end but was clearly a developmental project.
Fast forward two years and Swoope has passed the eye test, produced
numbers this preseason (10 catches 103 yards), and has earned
the praise of his coach who said he has made “tremendous
strides”. While a third-string tight end seems like a long
shot to make any fantasy noise, this could just be the guy to
do it. The Colts are expected to be a high-volume passing attack
that will look to spread the ball around to many targets. While
T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are easily the top options, there
are plenty more targets up for grabs, especially with the departure
of Coby Fleener.
Dwayne Allen is the clear starter at the position, but is one
of the more injury prone players of the past three seasons (21
games missed) and lacks athleticism and height for the position,
both of which are strengths of Swoope. Allen and second string
TE Jack Doyle, are however solid blockers, but it’s not
hard to imagine the Colts running two tight end sets with Swoope
as the primary receiving threat. Swoope also has the athleticism
to lineup outside as a receiver on occasion, perfect for a team
lacking size in its receiving corps, making him a threat in the
red zone.
While it is a long-shot that Swoope becomes a three-down player
this season, there is a glaring opportunity for him to get involved
in this juicy fantasy offense. He should be on your radar as a
deep sleeper who could produce big weeks if given an opportunity
at serious playing time.
Living in Virginia, I am saturated with Redskins and Ravens coverage
24/7. I’ve watched each of the Ravens preseason games this
year and surprisingly, the same player has stood out on every
occasion, Jeremy Butler.
I remembered Butler’s name from last season, as he caught
31 balls in just eight games, but I knew very little about his
background and didn’t think twice about him until this preseason
where he has quietly led the Ravens with 16 catches, 148 yds and
2 TDs. At 6’2’’ 215 Butler has solid size for
a receiver and looks the part as a solidly-built athlete. What
impresses me the most about Butler is his fluidity, as he seems
to catch the ball, secure it, and run all in one fluid motion
with no wasted movement. He also has very reliable hands and just
enough speed to go along with his power, to be able to turn short
catches into big plays.
While the Ravens receiving corps is super deep, each player on
the depth chart has serious question marks and at the moment,
nobody has undeniably stepped up as THE guy. At best, Butler is
fifth on the depth chart right but it doesn't take much of an
imagination to see how his time could come sooner than later.
Steve Smith is close to retirement, and while I would never question
the determination and will of one of the toughest guys to ever
play the position, father time and injuries have to catch up with
this guy at some point. Breshad Perriman came into the league
as a raw prospect with high expectations but has yet to play in
any game due to multiple knee injuries. Mike Wallace is on his
third team in three years and while a rebound year is possible,
at 30 years old and with a questionable work ethic, the chances
of him being a dominating force like he was with Pittsburgh unlikely.
Finally, you have Kamar Aiken, who I actually like in PPR leagues,
but is a bit of an overachiever and is more of a security blanket
guy.
Butler could pay off big this year as a fantasy WR3 if given
a full-time role in the Ravens offense. While you won’t have to
draft him, keep a close eye on the Ravens injury report/depth
chart going into Week 1 and be prepared to pounce on him if it
looks like he could see playing time.