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Bill Anderson | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer
 

Deep Sleepers
9/2/16

Fantasy football analysis is full of overused terms that can be interpreted in many different ways; breakouts, handcuffs, and of course, “sleepers” just to name a few.

In the good old days sleepers were unheralded players that fantasy owners had never even heard of. As fantasy football gained in popularity and the internet became more prevalent, player information became readily available and the term sleeper evolved into something entirely different.

Depending on who you talk to today, a sleeper could be anything from a veteran returning from injury, to a rookie, to a player in a new situation. I’ve heard “experts” name sleepers that consistently get drafted in the first seven rounds.

For me, a true sleeper is a player that almost nobody is drafting, or is typically selected in the last two rounds of a draft. These are players that amateur fantasy owners may never have heard of and more experienced players may simply dismiss.

I now present to you my top five deep sleepers of 2016.

Tyrell Williams

Looking for a Deep Sleeper? San Diego's Tyrell Williams may be a better version of Travis Benjamin.


WR Tyrell Williams, SD

At 6’4’’, 207 pounds, and with off the charts athletic numbers (4.38-40, 39.5” vertical) you would think Williams would be a hot commodity in fantasy circles, but coming out of a small school with just average production he has flown under the radar for over a year.

The time has finally come for Williams and I believe he will be owned in every league by the end of 2016.

Williams was somewhat raw and certainly unproven coming out of college in 2015 but has reportedly made a “sizable leap” in year two, even getting a few reps with the first team offense, catching 7 balls for 83 yards in two preseason games. What stands out is the way he reaches another gear so effortlessly, a gear most NFL players don’t have. He’s got some wiggle and even a little power, and even against first team defenses, Williams jumps out as a superior athlete.

I predict he will have the second-most fantasy points on the team in standard scoring leagues (not counting Rivers of course). While Danny Woodhead should still be a PPR dynamo, and Antonio Gates should see 5-8 touchdowns, Williams will be the big-play guy who could win weeks for you. While Keenan Allen will be the focus of the offense, he is a volume, possession-type receiver but Rivers needs another reliable option down the field.

What about Travis Benjamin you ask? He is a one-trick pony, a lid-lifter who will distract the defense and open things up underneath, but will be more of a decoy than a true threat. Williams will be more of a consistent Benjamin if you will, catching deep balls, but also having a presence in the intermediate passing game

The Chargers are set to have one of the more pass-happy offenses and Williams is emerging at a perfect time. Expect to see him on all three-receiver sets, (which the Chargers run frequently), and even some two-receiver sets as well. It’s a bold prediction, but I believe Williams will finish the year as a top 36 fantasy receiver, making him a steal in drafts and the waiver wire.

QB Jeff Driskel, SF

At the time of this writing the 49ers quarterback situations is, shall we say, interesting? With Colin Kaepernick’s future being up in the air and Blaine Gabbert being anything but dependable, who is to say that a very raw, but extremely athletic sixth-round rookie couldn’t make a significant impact this season? With an evil genius Coach like Chip Kelly, just about anything is possible.

Driskel was supposed to be the next big thing in college football, with a big arm, quick feet, and all the measurables you look for in a prototypical quarterback. He started for the Florida Gators as a sophomore but flamed out and eventually finished his career at Louisiana Tech, putting up 4,033 passing yards and 28 touchdowns in his final year. With near elite athleticism for the position and sound mechanics, Driskel fell to the sixth round and has been labeled a “project” because of his inaccuracy and inconsistency when throwing intermediate and deep routes and his tendency to occasionally panic in the pocket.

Driskel is “a perfect fit” in San Francisco as he pointed out himself after being drafted. His road to becoming a starter is clear. Blaine Gabbert did a commendable job last season but I think everyone knows he’s not the long-term answer. He wasn’t picked by Chip Kelly and the 49ers do not have a lot invested in him. Kaepernick has off-field drama and simply has never looked like an NFL-caliber quarterback since his one good season with Coach Harbaugh several years back.

With the 49ers not expected to win more than a handful of games this season, I believe Coach Kelly will turn to his “project” sooner rather than later. In Kelly’s system, Driskel should be able to play to his strengths, throwing short, quick passes, keeping up the pace/tempo and running the designed zone-read play. Driskel also has the arm strength to keep defenses honest with the deep ball, especially with Torrey Smith on the outside to lift the lid.

During the preseason, Driskel has flashed his potential, but suffered the typical rookie hiccups while going 15/31 for 132 yards through the air. On the ground though, that’s where I get excited for his fantasy potential, as Driskel has run 11 times for 103 yards.

While it won’t always be pretty if/when Driskel is given the keys to the offense, I could easily envision games of 225-plus passing yards and 75-plus rushing yards on a consistent basis. In a fantasy friendly system, with fantasy-friendly skills for the position, Driskel could be a mid-season savior for fantasy owners that are struggling for explosiveness at the position.

RB Tyler Gaffney, NE

A Patriots running back, really? Before you dismiss Gaffney as a guy you would want anywhere near your fantasy team, hear me out. Gaffney was originally a Carolina Panthers 6th round pick in 2014. After getting injured and missing his rookie year, the Patriots claimed him and he subsequently spent 2015 on injured reserve. The Patriots, and Bill Belichick have showed faith in Gaffney, giving him another shot this season, and it looks like he may finally get his chance to make a mark.

Gaffney is a big back, at 6’0’’, 220 pounds but is an excellent all-around athlete, who runs with vision, patience, smarts, and toughness. While bigger backs normally get knocked for their inability to catch the ball, Gaffney actually has great hands and is also solid in pass protection. While Gaffney doesn't possess blazing speed, he seems to do everything else well and looks like a player that Belichick loves - smart, no-nonsense, versatile, coachable player that gets the job done. Gaffney is a hybrid between James White and LeGarrette Blount, a big back that can catch the ball and if needed, could easily play a three-down role, as well as well as punch it in at the goal line.

With Dion Lewis out until at least Week 7, perhaps longer, and White locked in as the pass-catching back, only Blount stands in Gaffney’s way of backfield touches. While Blount also seems to have a special place in Belichick’s heart, Gaffney has kept pace with in preseason games, putting up similar stats and showing well when getting first-team reps. While I don’t see Blount totally losing his job, I can see game scripts this season where Gaffney could get 15-plus touches, with the potential for both catches and touchdowns. I personally wouldn't be surprised if Gaffney was the Patriots Week 1 starter and led the team in touches, although I admit the chances of a timeshare are significant.

My advice is to have Gaffney on as many rosters as you can right now because we have seen some crazy scenarios from the Patriots backfield and you don’t want to be fighting for him on the waiver wire. All it may take is one good game to begin the season and he may hold onto that starting job all year long.

TE Erik Swoope, IND

When the Colts signed Swoope as an undrafted free agent in 2014, he had played exactly zero games of organized football. As a four-year player on the Miami Hurricanes basketball team, Swoope had the athleticism and size (6’5’’ 260) of an NFL tight end but was clearly a developmental project.

Fast forward two years and Swoope has passed the eye test, produced numbers this preseason (10 catches 103 yards), and has earned the praise of his coach who said he has made “tremendous strides”. While a third-string tight end seems like a long shot to make any fantasy noise, this could just be the guy to do it. The Colts are expected to be a high-volume passing attack that will look to spread the ball around to many targets. While T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are easily the top options, there are plenty more targets up for grabs, especially with the departure of Coby Fleener.

Dwayne Allen is the clear starter at the position, but is one of the more injury prone players of the past three seasons (21 games missed) and lacks athleticism and height for the position, both of which are strengths of Swoope. Allen and second string TE Jack Doyle, are however solid blockers, but it’s not hard to imagine the Colts running two tight end sets with Swoope as the primary receiving threat. Swoope also has the athleticism to lineup outside as a receiver on occasion, perfect for a team lacking size in its receiving corps, making him a threat in the red zone.

While it is a long-shot that Swoope becomes a three-down player this season, there is a glaring opportunity for him to get involved in this juicy fantasy offense. He should be on your radar as a deep sleeper who could produce big weeks if given an opportunity at serious playing time.

WR Jeremy Butler, BAL

Living in Virginia, I am saturated with Redskins and Ravens coverage 24/7. I’ve watched each of the Ravens preseason games this year and surprisingly, the same player has stood out on every occasion, Jeremy Butler.

I remembered Butler’s name from last season, as he caught 31 balls in just eight games, but I knew very little about his background and didn’t think twice about him until this preseason where he has quietly led the Ravens with 16 catches, 148 yds and 2 TDs. At 6’2’’ 215 Butler has solid size for a receiver and looks the part as a solidly-built athlete. What impresses me the most about Butler is his fluidity, as he seems to catch the ball, secure it, and run all in one fluid motion with no wasted movement. He also has very reliable hands and just enough speed to go along with his power, to be able to turn short catches into big plays.

While the Ravens receiving corps is super deep, each player on the depth chart has serious question marks and at the moment, nobody has undeniably stepped up as THE guy. At best, Butler is fifth on the depth chart right but it doesn't take much of an imagination to see how his time could come sooner than later.

Steve Smith is close to retirement, and while I would never question the determination and will of one of the toughest guys to ever play the position, father time and injuries have to catch up with this guy at some point. Breshad Perriman came into the league as a raw prospect with high expectations but has yet to play in any game due to multiple knee injuries. Mike Wallace is on his third team in three years and while a rebound year is possible, at 30 years old and with a questionable work ethic, the chances of him being a dominating force like he was with Pittsburgh unlikely. Finally, you have Kamar Aiken, who I actually like in PPR leagues, but is a bit of an overachiever and is more of a security blanket guy.

Butler could pay off big this year as a fantasy WR3 if given a full-time role in the Ravens offense. While you won’t have to draft him, keep a close eye on the Ravens injury report/depth chart going into Week 1 and be prepared to pounce on him if it looks like he could see playing time.