Point Per Reception, or PPR leagues, are becoming more popular with
each passing year, and while the scoring change is relatively easy
to get used to, a change in strategy also has to be accounted for.
PPR owners should take note of certain RBs and WRs who can change
your draft strategy and target earlier than you would in a standard
scoring league. I have the players broken down into four categories;
stars, specialists, sleepers, and slackers.
Stars
– established players with solid value in all league
formats but are even more valuable in PPR leagues.
Specialists – players lacking
in standard scoring league appeal, but become solid contributors
in PPR leagues and in some cases, stars.
Sleepers – players normally
available late in your draft that with potential to become valuable
PPR options.
Slackers – players that may
be solid picks in standard scoring leagues but whose value takes
a hit in PPR scoring leagues.
Note: Current
ADP’s based on 12 team PPR scoring leagues
One simple stat should be enough to convince you of Allen’s stardom
as a PPR stud; he was on pace for 134 receptions last season.
While not a huge touchdown threat, Allen is the focal point of
an offense that throws as much as any team in the league (T-2nd
pass attempts) and has just enough talent around him to keep defenses
honest. After missing eight games last season Allen looks to be
back to 100 percent and should pick up where he left off, averaging
over 10 targets per game. With a below average defense and an
offense built on the short-to-intermediate passing game, Allen
should have no problem topping 100 receptions this year, making
his weekly floor very high even if he scores less than 10 touchdowns.
Allen should put up WR1 numbers in a PPR league, meaning you could
easily go RB-WR or have a deadly WR-WR combo with your first two
picks.
Tate is more of a complementary receiver in standard leagues because
he lacks big touchdown numbers and counted on more as a WR3. In
PPR leagues, he is a solid WR2 and could flash WR1 production
when the matchup is right. Tate’s durability, yards after catch,
and versatility set him apart. In the Lions offense Tate gets
used in multiple ways: down-field, intermediate routes, bubble
screens, and even the occasional run play. With the Lions now
void of a true number one receiver, Tate will be a focal point
of the offense that ranked in the top five in pass attempts (632)
last season. Now entering his third season with Matthew
Stafford, Tate should have the most QB chemistry of any receiver
on the depth chart and 150 targets are not unrealistic to expect.
He presents great value at the end of the 3rd round who will often
outscore many touchdown-dependent players taken ahead of him.
Landry is often taken a full round earlier in PPR leagues, making
him a true PPR specialist. With limited athletic ability and increasing
competition around him, Landry isn't an exciting pick in standard
leagues (just 10 total touchdowns in two seasons) but he has become
Ryan
Tannehill’s security blanket. While his 2015 stat line (111-1159-4;
111 rush yds) might be his ceiling, he finished as a top ten receiver
in most PPR leagues but is currently being drafted as the WR16,
making him a very safe pick with upside. I’ll project him right
around the average of his first two seasons, making him a 95-catch,
1000-yard receiver. Getting Landry as your second wide receiver
brings consistency every week, allowing you to gamble on higher
risk players at other spots in your draft.
I almost put Aiken in the sleeper category but after his mini-breakout
in the second half of 2015, most owners recognize his potential.
In the final nine games last season Aiken averaged just over 6
receptions per game, mostly without starting QB Joe
Flacco. While the yardage and TD numbers didn’t exactly impress,
the potential for a 80-catch season is real, making Aiken a very
solid value in the 10th round in PPR leagues. While some fantasy
owners believe Aiken is 4th on the Ravens depth chart, I see Aiken
as a security blanket for Flacco, especially with major age/health/production
concerns coming from two other receivers (Steve
Smith, Breshad
Perriman). On a team trying to find their footing in the running
game, Aiken should present a very nice consistent floor of production
as a WR3 who is being drafted as a WR4 right now. Cash in while
you still can.
To go from 19 career receptions (in two seasons) to a useful fantasy
player takes quite a leap but the stars are aligning for Ellington.
First, the arrival of Chip Kelly means volume on offense, and
with a below average defense it also means a lot of passing volume.
Second, the competition for targets in San Francisco is up in
the air with mediocre and unproven options (other than Torrey
Smith), and Ellington by all reports, has risen to the occasion
this off-season. Finally, Ellington’s skill set should be able
to take advantage in Kelly’s system. Unlike his teammate Torrey
Smith, who is a down field vertical burner, Ellington is more
quick than fast, gets in and out of cuts with good flow and has
good hands. While Ellington will probably be lucky to see anything
more than 5 touchdowns, I could easily see 5-plus catches per
game, with a few big plays mixed in. As a late round draft pick,
Ellington could be an every week flex play in PPR leagues.
After being underutilized for three years, Matthews had a mini-breakout
in Miami last year, catching 43 balls for 662 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Now going into his fifth year and a change of scenery, Matthews
has a legitimate chance to be the Titans number one receiver,
especially after the recent trade of Dorial
Green-Beckham. Matthews is not a freak athlete but presents
solid size (6’, 220) and good hands along with a natural knack
for getting open and catching the ball, even when contested. While
the Titans keep preaching “exotic smashmouth” as the type of offense
they want to run, the reality is, their defense is sub-par and
they are going to spend a lot of time throwing the ball to play
catch-up. The proven quality behind Matthews at receiver is thin,
making Matthews an easy pick to lead the team in targets most
weeks. I’ll put my over/under at 80-1050-7 for Matthews this year
and be extremely happy getting him after the 12th round, plugging
him into my WR3/flex spot in PPR leagues.
As an undrafted free agent, Hurns has exceeded expectations in
two seasons, scoring 16 touchdowns and racking up over 1,700 yards.
While he will remain a red-zone threat and the occasional big-play
guy, Hurns is not a volume receiver and it’s possible 2015 will
be his ceiling when his career is complete. With a much improved
defense, an expected increased emphasis (and productivity) on
the run game, Hurns is likely to lose some targets this coming
season. If you take his same catch percentage and drop him just
10 targets, which seems likely, we are looking at a less than
a 60-catch season. While he may have some solid yardage days and
score 7-9 touchdowns, his production in PPR leagues should be
very inconsistent, and is likely being over-drafted (WR31) at
this point.
The book has been out on Jackson for a while but for some reason
his PPR ADP is barely lower than his standard ADP (8.04). While
Jackson has shown to be more than a vertical threat, he still
just has one season (out of 8) with more than 65 receptions, and
that was in a Chip Kelly-led offense. In standard scoring, and
certainly DFS, Jackson is an exciting WR3 play that can explode
for a big game at any time, but in PPR his inconsistency and unpredictability
takes its toll. He had 8 or less PPR points, in five of his nine
games last year. With the emergence of Jordan
Reed, the continued presence of Pierre
Garcon, the drafting of Josh
Doctson, and a reliable receiving back in Chris
Thompson, Jackson does not have much volume upside, so more
inconsistency is almost a certainty. While a handful of big games
make him an exciting gamble, he lacks the consistency I prefer
in PPR leagues. Jackson should be a late-round flier, not an 8th
round pick.
