Let’s face it, as important as it is to make great waiver
pickups and get a few good trades accepted, nothing compares to
nailing (or failing) your draft. The heart and soul of every successful
championship fantasy team is almost always built at the draft,
and getting great value goes a long way to creating a championship
contending team.
While it is very important to find and target your guys, many
would argue that avoiding overpriced players is just as important.
Below I have 10 players that I feel should be avoided at and around
their current ADP. None of these guys are total avoids for me
but all of them are going considerably higher than I would feel
comfortable drafting them. For reference, the ADP’s listed
are for Half-PPR leagues.
Williams is being drafted as a 2nd round pick based on a very
successful 2023 season that saw him average 21 touches per game.
With this kind of workload, even mediocre efficiency would be
enough for a solid fantasy season. So, why am I avoiding him in
this range?
First, I do not think Williams comes close to the kind of workload
he had last season, when he was the only option the Rams had in
the backfield. The Rams selected Blake Corum with the 83rd pick
in the NFL draft and while I don't see Corum overtaking Williams
to become the starter, he has the profile of a guy that can handle
a lot of touches. In other words, the Rams did not draft a specialist
or change-of-pace guy, they specifically went after someone that
could share the workload.
After watching Williams miss time with injury in the middle of
the season last year, I believe the Rams will try to keep him
fresh and healthy, and that’s simply not helped by 20-plus
touches per game. The Rams ranked 12th in carries last season
and had a lot of positive game scripts (10 games decided by 10
or less points) but I see that changing, as their defense has
been downgraded with the loss of Aaron Donald. More shootout-type
games or simply games where they may need to abandon the run are
likely.
Overall, there are safer and higher upside players being drafted
after Williams that I feel better about than hoping for a 2023
workload repeat by the Rams starting RB.
Thanks in large part to rookie QB C.J. Stroud, Collins had a
massive third-year breakout with the Texans, more than doubling
his catches, yardage, and touchdowns from the previous season.
Collins displayed explosiveness and efficiency while averaging
over 16 yards per catch. With Stroud entering his second season
and Collins seemingly just entering his prime why am I avoiding
him at the start of the round 3?
While Nico’s overall numbers were great, he did a large
chunk of the damage when Tank Dell was out with injury. When Dell
was healthy, Nico played more of a 1B to Dell and so it is hard
to predict Nico being the dominant receiver in Houston this season.
Secondly, the addition of Stefon Diggs muddies the water even
more, as Diggs has been a target hog the past several years and
has a lot of motivation to have a big season. Add in the potential
of a stronger run game with Joe Mixon, the presence of Dalton
Shultz at tight end, and a possible dip in near historic efficiency
from Stroud and you are drafting Nico at his ceiling. There are
safer guys with a better path to guaranteed targets that are currently
being drafted after Collins like Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel.
This is an easy avoid for me almost every single year. The first
quarterback off the board in a 1-QB league. While I love Allen
and his upside, I simply believe the position is too deep to be
spending a 3rd round pick, much less a mid-third rounder, on any
quarterback, especially one that lost his top weapon from a year
ago. The talent available at other positions in the 3rd round
is simply too great to be wasting a pick on a position that is
easily 10- deep this season. For example, I would not be surprised
if Kyler Murray, going 40-plus picks later, has just as good a
fantasy season as Allen, but you are able to take him much later
and fill the rest of your roster out first. Nothing against Allen
the player, but the key to having a good draft is maximizing value,
and by taking a QB this early you are doing the exact opposite.
Are Taylor Swift fans the majority of early drafters this year?
I was shocked to see Kelce going this high and in the third round
he is an easy avoid for me this year. Kelce (34) failed to hit
1,000 yards for the first time in the previous eight seasons and
had the second-lowest touchdown total of his career (5). This
offseason, Kelce has admitted it may be best for him to limit
his snap count for the sake of the team, in order to keep him
healthy for the playoffs, yet this does not seem to be concerning
drafters.
Kelce may face the most legit target competition he has had since
Tyreek Hill was on the team three seasons ago. The additions of
Marquise Brown and rookie speedster Xavier Worthy, give the Chiefs
have two explosive new pieces to work with, as well as the continued
development of Rashee Rice. For me the combination of age, competition,
and likelihood of reduced snaps is too much to ignore for a third-round
pick. I know Kelce has been reliable for years but there are just
too many red flags this season and to be honest, he is the close
to being on my do not draft list.
The 2023 season was finally the one that D.J. Moore fans had
been waiting for. After several good but not great seasons in
Carolina, Moore was traded to Chicago and exploded for a 96/1364/8
line, all of which were career highs. Still in the prime of his
career, a third-round ADP would seem like a decent place to draft
him, but there are some red flags that have me hesitant at this
price.
The target competition has increased massively, as the Bears
added Keenen Allen, first-round rookie Rome Odunze, and pass-catching
specialist DeAndre Swift at RB to the mix. This is in sharp contrast
to Moore’s competition last season, which was basically
non-existent outside of TE Cole Kmet, who is still in Chicago
this season.
While the QB situation has theoretically been upgraded, Caleb
Williams is still a rookie and is very likely to have some ups
and downs in his first season. With a new QB also comes the question
about who he will gel with. Will it be the savvy target-hog Allen?
The explosive jump ball specialist in Odunze? A safety blanket
in Kmet? Or, will it be a different guy each week, meaning consistency
will be hard to come by. We really need to proceed with caution
here, and caution means not drafting any Bears’ pass catchers
before the 4th round.
The Bucs were a bit of a surprise team last season and White
was a pleasant surprise for his fantasy owners, as he averaged
20 touches per game and played in every game of the season. The
reason I’m not buying him as a top 50 pick is simple, I
do not think he can repeat or surpass his 2023 performance. Despite
one of the heavier workloads in the entire NFL, White failed to
eclipse 1,000 yards rushing and averaged a very mediocre 3.6 yards
per carry. Despite 272 attempts, White only managed two 100-yard
games and only three runs greater than 20 yards. Simply put, White
was a compiler who did not do anything special other than stay
healthy and get volume.
With a new offensive coordinator, a little more competition (4th
round rookie Bucky Irving) and higher expectations, the Bucs may
not be satisfied with the White’s average efficiency and
may instead look to limit his workload. This would obviously crush
his fantasy outlook, as his value is based almost entirely on
volume. Taking White with a top 50 pick is rolling the dice, when
there are plenty of other RB’s currently going after White,
that are more appealing like James Cook and Alvin Kamara.
Cooper, somewhat quietly, had a career high 1250 yards receiving
in 2023, with an amazing 17.2 yards per catch average, which was
over 2 yards per catch higher than his best season previously.
The big question for drafters this year is can he match that output
(or better) in his age 30 season? My guess would be no, partly
because I think Cooper’s outburst was a bit of a fluke,
but also because I do not trust Deshaun Watson to remain healthy
and return to becoming a consistent quarterback.
The Browns also added Jerry Jeudy at wide receiver, which was
a very underrated acquisition of a player that did not get a fair
shake in Denver, despite being a very talented prospect. In addition,
tight end David Njoku broke out in a big way in the second half
of 2023 and I cannot see the team getting away from him after
such a dominant final five games of the season.
Cooper’s 2023 season was inconsistent on a week-to-week
basis, scoring double-digit fantasy points in nine games, and
single digit in seven. Among the nine double-digit games was an
incredible 50-point game against Houston (Wk16) where Cooper went
11/265/2. I’m not saying that won’t happen again but…
OK, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Overall, I see
Cooper as a boring, safe-ish option that you wouldn’t hate
having on your team but for being a top 50 pick there are higher
ceiling players in that range that are more appealing like Zay
Flowers.
Stroud set the NFL on fire last season as a rookie, putting up
historically elite efficiency levels and blowing away all expectations.
So why would I be fading him at ADP this year? It mostly has to
do with the 5th and 6th round having potential studs at more shallow
positions while there will be multiple QB options with similar
value later in your draft. As a result, reaching on Stoud who
has a limited ceiling due to his lack of rushing ability doesn’t
make sense.
In the 5th-6th round range, there is a goldmine of players that
I think can be incredible values. Christian Kirk, Kenneth Walker,
Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, and Marquise Brown all stand out as
borderline league winners, or at the very least every-week starters
with high ceilings. At QB, I personally have Kyler Murray ranked
higher than Stroud with Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott
and Jayden Daniels all in the same tier as Stroud. Yet all these
guys are going after Stroud, some several rounds later.
By contrast, the players at TE/RB/WR drop-off significantly after
the 5th-6th round range so you are playing with fire taking a
Stroud because you may be scrambling to find consistent starters
at those other positions later on. As much as I like Stroud the
player, it’s all about value and Stoud is going at a hot
spot in drafts where you are much better waiting on the position
a round or two or more.
I love the potential of the Green Bay offense this year under
the development of Jordan Love and I’m absolutely leaving
every draft with a piece of this passing attack. While I like
Reed and feel like he is a relatively safe choice, the main issue
with selecting him at his ADP is you are not getting any real
value in the pick, especially for a player with a relatively low
ceiling. The Packers’ receiving corps is stacked with young
talent and you can cherry pick different stats to make an argument
for any one of three-to-four guys to have the best 2024 season.
Reed does not play a lot of snaps in 2-WR sets and when all Packers
were healthy last season other wideouts, like Christian Watson,
were more productive.
Training camp reports have been positive on each of Romeo Doubs,
Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Reed, and coaches have said they will
all get action. This is an easy decision to wait until one or two
of these guys have already been drafted and then grab the 3rd or
even 4th guy off this list to absolutely maximize value. These four
have an even chance of having a great season, so just take the guy
that costs you the least capital. This makes Reed is a no-brainer
fade at his current ADP, as the first Packer wide receiver off the
board.
I was surprised that Addison is still a top 100 pick with the
possibility of a looming suspension, but here we are. Even before
Addison got into some off-field trouble, I was fading him after
being propped up by a small sample of success in a somewhat fluky
situation. Addison had a solid rookie year, going 70/911/10 on
108 targets. A deeper look at these numbers tells a different
story, as almost half of his production came in a five-game stretch
where Justin Jefferson was out with injury. In addition, another
one of his bigger games (8/57/1) came when T.J. Hockenson was
out with injury in Week 18. While filling in and stepping up for
injured players is all part of the game, Addison is perhaps one
of those players that is more helpful to an NFL team than a fantasy
team.
Assuming health for Jefferson (and eventually Hockenson), Addison
could struggle to be a weekly WR4 and has a will have a limited
ceiling, especially considering were expecting Sam Darnold or
rookie J.J. McCarthy to be a downgrade from Kirk Cousins. If you
add in the possibility of suspension, Addison goes from a risky
pick at his ADP to a near do-not-draft type of player.
