One of the true upside quarterbacks to target late in redraft
leagues this season, Oakland’s Derek Carr also makes a strong
case to be one of the more highly sought-after passers in dynasty
leagues. Most rookies don’t step right into fantasy success, but
the surprisingly low number of bad performances that Carr had
in 2014 bodes well for his chances going forward, especially now
that the team has made serious strides to improve his weapons.
Carr finished as the No. 20 fantasy quarterback last season despite
playing for a 3-13 team with few quality targets in the passing
game. He scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 16 starts,
including six games where he finished with 20 or more. With receivers
Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree now rostered and expected to
start immediately, Carr will need to develop chemistry with his
new weapons, but should have an increased ceiling, especially
later in the season.
Although he does not possess much in the way of running ability
as he rushed for fewer than 100 yards on the season in 2015, Carr
possesses a big, accurate arm when he has time to throw. Without
any major improvements to the offensive line, Carr himself will
need to get the ball out sooner if the Raiders hope to improve
this season. Thankfully, Cooper and Crabtree are both high-quality,
physical possession receivers who should give Carr big, reliable
targets on short and intermediate throws. Targeting Carr as a
QB2 late in drafts is a good option, especially for those lucky
enough to land a reliable QB1. Don’t expect huge numbers,
but roughly 4,000 yards and high-20’s to low-30’s
in touchdowns is not out of the question. That should make him
a prime candidate to stream on bye weeks.
The league’s worst run-blocking offensive line did no favors
to 2014 starters Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden. The duo
averaged just 3.2 yards per carry on 198 combined rushes while
showing practically zero big play ability. While the veterans
struggled to produce anything of value, the young Latavius Murray
sat on the bench, waiting for his opportunity. When that opportunity
finally arrived, Murray burst onto the scene, showing off electric
playmaking ability which saw him average 5.2 yards per carry over
the course of the season – a full two yards per carry better
than what the Raiders were getting from Jones-Drew and McFadden.
With Jones-Drew now retired and McFadden now in Dallas, the feature
running back job appears to belong to Murray as we head into the
2015 season. With an ideal combination of speed and strength,
Murray is everything that fantasy owners should be looking for.
The biggest red flag surrounding him is durability. Murray missed
his entire rookie campaign in 2013 after suffering what was originally
described as a “minor” ankle injury in a preseason game. He never
saw the field again in 2013 and saw only four carries through
the Raiders’ first half of the 2014 season. If he can stay healthy,
Murray has the potential to be a top-10 fantasy running back this
season. With only Roy Helu and a mediocre Trent Richardson behind
him on the depth chart, 200-plus carries is certainly within reach.
Once a top pick in the NFL draft, Trent Richardson appeared to
be on the path to becoming one of the NFL’s elite runners
early in his career. A workhorse back as a rookie, Richardson
gained 1,317 total yards and 12 touchdowns on 318 touches for
the Browns. A shocking mid-season trade to the Colts saw most
fantasy owners targeting the back as he was now the lead dog in
a much better offense. Unfortunately, Richardson never quite lived
up to expectations in Indianapolis. In fact, one could say that
he was one of the most disappointing fantasy players in recent
memory as he has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry over his past
two seasons.
Now gone from Indianapolis, Richardson finds himself in a much
less appetizing fantasy situation, stuck behind another young,
talented back on the depth chart and rushing behind one of the
worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league. Perhaps the
motivation of having to play hard to get on the field will serve
him well, but don’t look for Richardson to be much of a
contributor early in the season. His main value lies as the perceived
handcuff to Murray should he go down to an injury. Although Roy
Helu has certainly been more productive than Richardson, Helu’s
skills might be better served as a complementary back, no matter
who the starter is.
It was only a few seasons ago that Roy Helu, a fourth-round pick
in the 2011 NFL draft, was perceived to be the new Redskins starter
going into the 2012 season. Washington threw us a curveball, however,
when they gave the job to the relatively unknown rookie, Alfred
Morris. Morris proceeded to produce big numbers, leaving Helu
as the odd man out over the past few seasons.
Now with a new opportunity in Oakland, Helu could potentially
see increased playing time, particularly on third downs where
he has shown reliable hands, quality pass protection skills and
flashes of big time playmaking ability. With a 5.4 yards per carry
average in 2014, Helu has also shown that he can be a producer
on early downs as well. Given the injury history of Murray and
the flop potential of Richardson, Helu may be worth a late-round
flier, particularly in deeper leagues. He should see regular playing
time even if both Murray and Richardson stay healthy which gives
him some value in the interim, but he could be a fantasy gem if
either player goes down or gets benched.
Arguably the most sought-after playmaker in the entire 2015 NFL
Draft, Amari Cooper lands in Oakland, a team in desperate need
of a superstar receiver to complement their second-year quarterback
Derek Carr. Cooper, who dominated the college ranks this past
season with 124 receptions for 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns,
should step in and play immediately in this offense. That will
give him the opportunity to begin creating a rapport with Carr
almost immediately, which could mean that the duo is already on
the same page to start the season. With the recent success that
other rookie wide receivers have had throughout the league, it
would not be surprising to see Cooper step in and perform almost
immediately. With good speed, elite quickness, great hands and
NFL caliber route-running already in his skill set, Cooper should
be one of the top picks in dynasty leagues and could even finish
as a high-end WR2 this season.
Another new face in Oakland this season, former San Francisco
49ers first round pick Michael Crabtree stays in the Bay area
and will look to improve upon a disappointing 2014 which saw him
fail to exceed 700 yards as he scored just four touchdowns on
the season. Worse yet, he failed to hit 100 yards in any game,
which essentially made him a fantasy dud throughout the entire
year.
A new team might be just what the doctor ordered for Crabtree,
however, who just didn’t seem to be clicking with Colin
Kaepernick. In Oakland, Crabtree will have an opportunity to work
with a more traditional pocket passer in Derek Carr, which could
lead to better timing and an increased success rate on passes
going his way. It’s also worth considering that the Raiders
will almost certainly pass the ball more often in 2015 than the
49ers did in 2014, so his opportunity level should increase. Crabtree
still has the possibility of disappointing fantasy owners, but
he should at least be a reliable contributor on a week-to-week
basis, particularly in PPR formats. WR2 numbers are not likely
from Crabtree, but solid WR3 numbers seem like a good ceiling.
WR Rod
Streater (2014 WR Rank – No.133, 4.8 FPts/G)
After a surprisingly impressive sophomore season in 2013 where
he caught 60 passes for nearly 900 yards, Raiders wideout Rod
Streater was pegged on many sleeper boards heading into the 2014
season. Streater would catch a touchdown pass in Week 1 and appeared
to be on his way to living up to the hype, but a broken foot ended
his season early in Week 3. Now back on the field, Streater finds
himself in a battle for the team’s third wide receiver spot behind
Crabtree and Cooper. Worse yet, even if he wins the third receiver
job, he’ll likely be behind tight end Mychal Rivera and at least
one of the Raiders’ running backs on the target pecking order.
The 6’3” receiver might possess the stature to produce decent
numbers this season, but without guaranteed regular playing time,
it will be hard to trust him on draft day.
WR Andre
Holmes (2014 WR Rank – No.53, 6.2 FPts/G)
The Oakland receiver with the lowest likelihood of fantasy production
who could still be considered watch-worthy in deeper leagues is
Andre Holmes. Holmes, who caught 47 passes for 693 yards and four
scores a season ago, is heading into his fifth season but has
yet to produce numbers with any consistency. His biggest stretch
of games this past season came when he caught nine passes for
195 yards and three scores in Weeks 4 and 6 (the Raiders had a
bye in Week 5). Unfortunately, he failed to produce much after
that as he caught just one touchdown in the team’s remaining
eleven games and he never caught more than five passes in any
one game. Holmes is a decent depth option, but really only possesses
much fantasy value if either Cooper or Crabtree goes down with
an injury. Otherwise he’ll battle for snaps with Streater
as the team’s third wide receiver, which won’t likely
mean too much for fantasy purposes.
Considered a backup fantasy TE at best going into the 2014 season,
Mychal Rivera exceeded expectations his second professional season.
Rivera caught 58 passes for 534 yards and four touchdowns, good
enough to make him a solid bye week fill-in or even a low-end
TE1. Things started off slow, but once Rivera and Carr began to
click, they became a good duo. Rivera made six or more catches
in five of the Raiders’ final 10 games of the season and
caught all four of his touchdowns over that span.
While his chemistry with Cooper and Crabtree is still being ironed
out, Carr may lean on Rivera early in the year. That could translate
to some nice fantasy numbers, but fantasy owners shouldn’t
necessarily expect that to continue throughout the season. As
he becomes more comfortable throwing the ball to his new wide
receivers, Rivera could become a forgotten man in the offense.
It’s also worth noting that the Raiders did draft another
tight end, Clive Walford, in the third round of April’s
NFL Draft. It’s difficult for rookie tight ends to make
an impact and Walford won’t likely get much playing time
early, but could cut into Rivera’s snaps enough to reduce
his fantasy value later in the season.