Improving in each of his first three seasons in the league, Russell
Wilson finally broke out as an elite fantasy option at the quarterback
position this past season as he finished sixth with an impressive
23.4 fantasy points per game. Wilson did this despite the Seahawks
rushing the ball as much and as successfully as any team in the
league. Of course, a lot of the team’s rushing came from
Wilson himself who became just the eighth quarterback to rush
for 800 or more yards in a single season as he finished the year
with 849 yards on the ground. His six rushing touchdowns led all
quarterbacks in that department as well.
A 20-touchdown, seven-interception season with 3,475 yards is
acceptable but not spectacular in today’s NFL. This was likely
one reason why the team opted to make a huge offseason move by
acquiring tight end Jimmy Graham from the New Orleans Saints.
Graham, who has been among the elite at his position for quite
a few seasons, brings new life to this Seattle passing game, particularly
in the redzone where he’s made 51 touchdown receptions during
his five year career. This is still the Marshawn Lynch show close
the goaline, but Graham’s jump ball skills add a new dimension
to the offense which means we could see Wilson’s touchdown numbers
inflate this season.
The biggest question regarding Wilson seems to be his ability
to be productive as a pure pocket passer. Fortunately, that hasn’t
been much of a concern as of yet as he’s stayed healthy
thus far in his career while surprisingly avoiding big hits despite
his propensity to run. Still, he is one hit away from a “minor”
knee, back, rib or other injury that could allow him to continue
playing but might substantially limit his rushing numbers. We’ve
seen this before from many run-heavy quarterbacks, so it’s
always a risk to select a player whose fantasy production is so
dependent on him being fully healthy. Nevertheless, Wilson’s
dual-threat ability gives him a high floor that few other quarterbacks
can achieve. He’ll likely be a top four quarterback in most
fantasy drafts and should produce numbers around that ADP so long
as he stays healthy.
It’s hard to believe that Marshawn Lynch has been as productive
as he has for so long while never really being considered as a
potential No.1 overall fantasy pick. That remains the case in
2015 as Lynch is again being selected as a mid-first-round pick
in most drafts following his fourth straight season with over
1,200 rushing yards and double-digit rushing touchdowns. Lynch
has never been the top-scoring fantasy running back, but he has
been in the elite conversation since his move to Seattle back
in 2010. His consistent high-end production makes him one of the
most valuable players in all of fantasy football and doesn’t
possess the same type risk that many of the other top fantasy
backs do. Lynch has touched the ball over 300 times in every full
season he has spent in Seattle and there’s little reason
to believe that he won’t surpass that number again this
season.
Lynch heads into his ninth NFL season and despite his age and
high workload, he remains very productive on a per-carry basis.
He finished with 4.7 yards per carry in 2014 and even cracked
the 5.0 mark back in 2012. Not only that, but his usage in the
passing game increased in 2014 as he made 37 receptions for a
career-high 367 yards and four touchdowns, also a career high.
His 17 total touchdowns were the best of his career and despite
the addition of Jimmy Graham to the passing game, Lynch remains
one of the most likely players in the league to touch the ball
near the goal line. One concern for Lynch is that the team will
be without former two-time Pro Bowl center Max Unger, who left
for New Orleans in the trade for Graham. Unger was one of the
better run blockers at the position and Seattle really didn’t
do much to address the position during the offseason. Given the
offensive line concerns, however, Lynch remains one of the top
fantasy players heading into the season and his high floor makes
him one of, if not the safest running backs in all of fantasy
football.
A highly-touted player coming out of college, running back Christine
Michael has been practically nonexistent in the Seattle offense
through his first two seasons in the league. Michael has touched
the ball a total of 53 times despite averaging an impressive 4.9
yards per carry. Stuck behind one of the league’s best at the
position and Robert Turbin who possesses a wider skill set particularly
in the passing game, Michael is a classic handcuff option who
could end up being a huge difference maker down the stretch, but
only if Lynch (and possibly Turbin) get hurt. His biggest value
is in dynasty leagues where he is expected to be the running back
of the future in a highly productive, run-first offense.
The primary backup to Lynch since entering the league in 2012,
Robert Turbin has been productive but not spectacular when given
the opportunity. He’s averaged 4.0 yards per carry throughout
his career, but has primarily been used as a third-down or change-of-pace
back to complement Lynch, particularly in obvious passing situations.
Turbin doesn’t touch the ball enough to be fantasy relevant
on his own unless Lynch goes down, but given the back injuries
that have been causing Lynch problems over the past couple of
seasons, there is a possibility Turbin will be given the chance
to play more in 2015 in an effort to keep Lynch healthy down the
stretch. Should Lynch go down with an injury, chances are that
Turbin would be on the field more than Michael, so he remains
the primary handcuff to Lynch even though Michael has better long-term
prospects.
With Percy Harvin and Golden Tate now off the roster, Doug Baldwin
sits atop the Seattle depth chart as the team’s top receiving
option. That should worry Seahawk fans as the team really hasn’t
done much to address this obvious position of need. Baldwin has
been serviceable, but doesn’t do much to light up the fantasy
scoreboard. Through four seasons, Baldwin has 196 receptions for
2,757 yards and 15 touchdowns. His best season came in 2014 as
he started all 16 games for the first time in his career which
translated to career highs in receptions (66) and yards (825).
Unfortunately all those receptions and yards only produced three
touchdowns, which meant Baldwin remained on the outside looking
in as even a Flex play in standard leagues as he finished as the
No. 47 wide receiver on the year. With Graham now on the roster,
don’t look for Baldwin’s redzone opportunities to
increase in 2015. He’ll likely lead all Seattle wide receivers
in receptions again this season, but that won’t make him
a particularly tantalizing fantasy option if he can’t get
into the end zone. Baldwin’s low ADP means you won’t
have to spend much to get him, but there are other options being
selected around that area who provide a much higher ceiling.
After finishing 72nd among wide receivers in 2014, it’s
hard to get excited about third-year receiver Jermaine Kearse
who started all but two games alongside Baldwin this past season.
Kearse finished the year with just 38 receptions for 537 yards
– both career highs – but just one touchdown. Despite
him being penciled in as the team’s No. 2 option at wide
receiver, Kearse might be fourth player drafted in the group.
Through three full seasons, including playoffs, Kearse has only
had more than three receptions in a game on three occasions and
he has never broken 100 receiving yards in a regular season game.
The upside isn’t there with Kearse and given the lack of
opportunities to go around in the Seattle passing game, it would
be wise for fantasy owners to hold off on selecting Kearse in
drafts.
Few players can say they had a breakout game in the Super Bowl,
but that’s exactly what happened to rookie wide receiver
Chris Matthews. Matthews did not record a single reception through
the entire regular season or in the playoffs prior to Super Bowl
XLIX. On that night, however, he made four receptions for 109
yards and a touchdown. Head coach Pete Carroll is certainly not
new to exploiting his opposition’s weaknesses and certainly
he saw an opportunity for the 6’5” Matthews to do
damage against the New England secondary, but there’s no
guarantee that Matthews will be an important part of the offense
going forward. It will be interesting to see if Matthews can keep
up the momentum in the preseason, but those who draft prior to
the preseason games, shouldn’t invest more than a late-round
flier on this young wideout.
Seemingly noticing their lack of production at the wide receiver
position, Seattle looked to address the position by selecting
Paul Richardson in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft. He
showed promised early but didn’t do much until the end of
the regular season when he scored his first touchdown and had
two five-catch games. Unfortunately, Richardson tore his ACL in
the playoffs and is unlikely to be ready to start the 2015 season.
Because of that, Richardson won’t be drafted in most leagues,
making him an interesting player to potentially target on waivers
during the regular season, particularly if the other Seattle receivers
continue to be less than impressive.
TE Jimmy
Graham (2014 TE Rank – No. 3, 9.9 FPts/G)
Perhaps the biggest off-season acquisition in the league, Jimmy
Graham left the friendly confines of New Orleans to join Russell
Wilson in Seattle. Arguably the most-talented tight end in the
league, Graham has produced monster numbers in each of the past
four seasons, including a ridiculous 46 touchdowns during that
stretch. While it would be easy to expect that Graham’s
success from New Orleans continues in Seattle, there’s no
question he is going from one of the league’s most pass-happy
offenses to one of the least. Over the past three seasons, Drew
Brees attempted an absurd 1,979 passes. By comparison, Wilson
attempted just 1,252 during that same timeframe. Wilson’s
pass attempts have increased in each of his three seasons, but
it’s almost unfathomable that he would even approach Brees’
numbers, let alone surpass them.
While pass attempts alone won’t tell the story, it’s
worth considering that Graham’s total targets could see
a decrease of as much as 20-to-30 percent now that he is in Seattle.
The quality of those targets could go up, but it will be extremely
hard for him to replicate the numbers he put up in New Orleans
unless Seattle completely changes the gameplan that has brought
them to back-to-back Super Bowls. Still, given the weakness at
the tight end position, Graham remains one of the elite options
at the position and could be selected as high as the second round
in drafts while still returning solid value.
