Progressing in each season of his career so far, the hype continues
to grow for 26-year-old Derek Carr. His impressive 2016 season had
him firmly in the NFL MVP conversation and his value was extremely
noticeable in his team’s Week 17 loss against the Broncos and subsequent
first round playoff defeat at the hands of the Texans – both games
in which Carr was unable to suit up. Now entering his fourth season,
Carr will again have the opportunity to throw to arguably the league’s
best one-two punch at wide receiver, Michael Crabtree and Amari
Cooper, and he will also add a big-bodied and physically talented
tight end in Jared Cook to the mix.
The addition of Marshawn Lynch to the running back committee should
give fantasy owners some pause as Lynch has been one of the more
productive red zone runners in the league throughout his career.
That could potentially lead to fewer passing attempts near the goal
line for Carr. In addition, Carr’s struggles against his divisional
competition have to be a big concerning. He threw for an average
of just 211 yards per game and just four touchdown passes in the
five games he started against AFC West opponents in 2016. None of
those teams should take a significant step back defensively in 2017,
so Carr is not necessarily a no-brainer every week starter for fantasy
purposes at this point in his career. Still, the Oakland offense
has tremendous upside overall and there’s little reason to be worried
that his seasonal numbers will take a dramatic dip down.
It's not often that a player retires from a perennial Super Bowl
contending team, then returns over a year later to play for a franchise
that has mostly been a basement dweller for the better part of 20
years. But that's the situation we have with Marshawn Lynch, who
now finds himself as a Raider for the 2017 season. Lynch is well
known for being one of the most bruising tailbacks in recent history,
bringing the kind of grit to the field that isn't common in today's
NFL. On paper, his style matches perfectly with the Oakland offense,
specifically due to the team's recent efforts to revamp and rebuild
their offensive line. The Raiders now boast one of the league's
most dominant front fives, which makes for an extremely interesting
fantasy situation. Lynch was highly productive even behind a largely
mediocre Seattle offensive line, but he may now have the opportunity
to break off even more big runs. Lynch's situation isn't without
concern, however.
While Derek Carr might not be quite as established as Russell Wilson
was, he and the passing game were certainly the focal point of the
Oakland offense in 2016 - a reality that is not expected to change
much even with Lynch on the roster. But even beyond the concerns
of the passing game taking carries from Lynch is the reality that
Lynch is not necessarily a shoo-in to get all of, or even the large
majority of carries. Second-year backs Jalen Richard and DeAndre
Washington both had moments where they looked very good as rookies
and with Lynch having spent a year away from the game, there are
some who believe that his age (31) and general wear and tear will
lead to him needing to concede carries to other backs anyway. The
Raiders certainly didn't bring Lynch into the fold in order to sit
him on the bench, but keep an eye on the other tailbacks on the
roster during the preseason and training camp. If Washington or
Richard begin to separate themselves from the other, it might be
a wise idea to handcuff one of them to Lynch, which would go a long
way to securing yourself a potentially elite running back situation.
An undrafted rookie seemingly stuck behind two other young tailbacks
on the Oakland roster, few could have predicted that Jalen Richard
would provide the pop as he did in 2016. Richard finished the season
with a whopping 5.9 yards per carry average - good enough for second
in the NFL among running backs - and was also a productive receiver
out of the backfield. While he never carried the ball more than
10 times in a single game and only scored three total touchdowns
on the season, Richard was able to provide six double-digit PPR
days to his fantasy owners. It appeared as if Richard may have a
significant role increase in 2017 when Latavius Murray left in the
offseason, but the addition of Marshawn Lynch certainly hurts the
upside of both Richard and fellow second-year back DeAndre Washington.
Richard’s role in the offense shouldn’t change substantially, however,
as Lynch has never been a great pass catcher. Look for Richard to
approach 40 catches this season which, combined with a handful of
carries each week, should give him some low-end flex appeal in PPR
formats, especially in games when the Raiders fall behind on the
scoreboard.
Prior to the signing of Marshawn Lynch, the DeAndre Washington hype
train for 2017 was in full effect. The 5’8” back was
effective as a rookie, rushing for an impressive 5.4 yards per carry
while entrenched in a running back by committee fantasy nightmare
alongside Latavius Murray and Jalen Richard. Murray was the lead
dog in that backfield but did miss some time in the middle of the
season. During that time, it was Washington who saw his snaps increase
most significantly, nearly out-snapping Richard by a 2-to-1 ratio
while Murray was out. Lynch will almost certainly see the lion’s
share of the early down snaps for the Raiders in 2017 and while
Richard is better suited to handle passing down duties, it could
be Washington who is really the “handcuff” to Lynch
if there is one to be had. This means that while Richard will likely
outscore Washington on the season, Washington’s upside might
actually be higher. Either way, this situation is unpredictable
and there’s a good chance that both Washington and Richard
will go undrafted in many leagues.
Now entering his third season as a pro, Amari Cooper continues to
establish himself as one of the league’s premier pass catchers
and it seems to be clear that he has not yet met his full potential.
Cooper’s 1,153 yards in 2016 led the Raiders and he dropped
just four total passes in his second season. What’s interesting
is that while Cooper started the season red hot with four games
of 125-plus yards in his first eight contests, he failed to eclipse
even 80 yards in a game over the second half of the season. He remained
productive enough to not be a complete flop due to some timely touchdowns,
but there is some concern that the 23-year-old will continue to
be frustratingly inconsistent. The talent is certainly there, however,
and he was really only a few missed targets away from a near double-digit
touchdown season, which would’ve made him a top-10 player
at his position in 2016. The nice thing about Cooper is that there
isn’t a whole lot of competition for targets outside of Michael
Crabtree in the Oakland offense, so as long as he’s healthy
he should continue to provide enough big games mixed in with some
duds that fantasy owners will be happy selecting him as a low-end
WR1.
While it’s the budding superstar Amari Cooper who has been
the recipient of most of the hype, the wide receiver who has quietly
led the Raiders in both targets and receptions – as well as
fantasy points – for the past two seasons is actually Michael
Crabtree. Crabtree’s production in each of his first two seasons
in Oakland has been almost a copy-and-paste, but it’s been
good enough for him to finish as a borderline WR1 in both seasons.
While he gave fantasy owners zero games of more than 110 receiving
yards, Crabtree was substantially more consistent in 2016 than his
counterpart, Cooper. Crabtree caught multiple passes in every game
and finished with four or more receptions in each of his final six
games of the season. He sees a tremendous amount of red zone targets
which has allowed him to score 17 times over the past two seasons,
which is certainly helpful during weeks when his yardage totals
might not be quite as high. He may not possess the upside that Cooper
does and most believe that he’s going to take a bit of a backseat
to the young playmaker in 2017, but there’s still a great
chance that Crabtree produces numbers good enough to make him a
quality WR2 in most formats.
It’d take some serious noise in the preseason and/or injuries
to Crabtree or Cooper for another Oakland wide receiver to get into
the fantasy conversation, but if there’s a player to keep
an eye on early in the season, it might just be former Minnesota
Vikings wideout Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson flashed tremendous
playmaking ability at times for the Vikings, but never generated
consistency, which led to the team not resigning him this offseason.
Minnesota’s trash might end up being Oakland’s treasure
however, as OTA and minicamp reports have analysts raving about
Patterson’s play. Even offensive coordinator Todd Downing
spoke highly of Patterson’s abilities, making it clear that
the team will look for unique ways to get the ball into his hands
even if he’s not able to latch on as a consistent target in
the passing game. Think Tavon Austin with size. Patterson should
find himself handling many of the return duties which does give
him a bit of additional fantasy potential, but it’ll be up
to Downing and the coaching staff to find ways to get him into open
space on offense. He’s still young and the physical tools
are certainly there, so don’t count him out just yet.
A physical beast who runs with blazing speed, it’s almost
shocking that it took this long for tight end Jared Cook to land
in Oakland. The Raiders have been looking for a quality tight end
for quite some time and while Cook has certainly been a disappointment
elsewhere, there’s little question that he’ll be an
upgrade from what the team saw in 2016 with Clive Walford. The tight
end position overall is a bit of a crapshoot after the top seven
or so players, so at least half of your league will be scrambling
to find quality at the position. In those situations, it makes a
lot of sense to look at upside. While Cook’s career has been
marked with letdowns, there are few situations that are better for
fantasy purposes than the one that he finds himself in with the
Raiders. Crabtree and Cooper are clearly the top two targets, but
Cook could very well find himself as the third option in one of
the league’s better offenses.
