A relatively quiet second half of the 2020 season makes it easy
to forget that Russell Wilson was the best quarterback in all
of fantasy football through the first seven weeks of the season.
Wilson threw for at least three touchdowns in all but one of the
Seahawks’ first eight games and that incredible start allowed
him to finish as a top five fantasy QB for the year even though
he surpassed two touchdown passes in just one of the Seahawks’
final nine games.
While there is reason to have some concern about Wilson’s second
half, there’s some hope to be had when you consider that the team
prioritized the passing game this April when they used their only
draft picks in the first three rounds on wide receiver D’Wayne
Eskridge. Say what you will about Eskridge as a prospect, but
the point is that the Seahawks seemed to clearly identify that
they needed to get deeper at pass catcher even though they had
one of the league’s top duos in 2020 with DK Metcalf and Tyler
Lockett.
It’s hard to believe that Pete Carroll will ever truly allow
the Seahawks to maintain a modern, pass-happy offensive approach
for an entire season, but Wilson’s efficiency numbers are
truly other worldly so he’s been able to perform as a solid
QB1 for fantasy even in years when his pass attempts have been
relatively low. We do have to expect that his rushing totals will
dwindle down as he nears his mid-30s but Wilson did finish the
2020 season with 513 rushing yards, which was a good step up from
what he had in both 2019 (376 rushing yards) and 2020 (342 rushing
yards).
For Wilson to finish as a top five QB again this season, he will
need to continue to be both a plus-contributor in the rushing
game while also maintaining his place as one of the league’s
most highly efficient passers, both of which he has done throughout
his career. A boost up in pass attempts and we could be talking
about Wilson competing for the crown of fantasy football’s
highest scorer this season. Wilson is one of the safest quarterbacks
on the board once again.
An injury-riddled season meant that Chris Carson’s totals
saw a significant dip in 2020. The Seahawks back missed four full
games and was uncharacteristically kept to fewer than 10 carries
in four additional games, much of that due to pesky injuries.
When he finally got back to at least near full strength, however,
Carson was immediately a major part of the Seattle offense as
he finished the season with at least 13 touches in each of the
Seahawks’ final six games, including their playoff loss
to the Rams.
While the Seattle offense was less efficient overall down the
stretch when they leaned more heavily on their running game, the
fact is that the team went 7-1 in the eight regular season games
where Carson carried the ball at least 10 times. Data analysts
would tell you that this might be more of a “correlation”
situation than it is a “causation” one, but the Seahawks
have been a team notorious for playing “run the ball and
play good defense” football. That might not be great for
Russell Wilson and the passing game, but it’s proven to
be great for the running game and more specifically Carson over
the past few years.
Another thing worth noting is that Carson tied a career high
with 37 receptions in 2020. As stated earlier, Carson played significantly
fewer downs in 2020 than he had in his previous two seasons, so
this was actually a substantial uptick in passing game work. While
his 16-game pace would’ve put him at just under 50 receptions
for the season and we shouldn’t necessarily expect that
kind of usage, it’s nice to see that Carson is no longer
a complete nothing as a receiver. We had to drop Carson down a
bit in PPR rankings in previous seasons but that shouldn’t
be the case anymore as he’s seeing enough work to be a reliable
RB2 in all formats.
Former first round draft pick Rashaad Penny has been one of the
biggest busts of the 2018 draft class. The running back has touched
the ball just 161 times in three seasons and he missed almost
the entire 2020 season while recovering from an injury he suffered
toward the end of the 2019 season.
While we expected that Penny’s knee would be better by
now, we recently got news that he had some sort of “clean
up” surgery in June. The team does believe that he’ll
be ready for training camp, but this is certainly not a great
confidence builder for those hoping that Penny would finally get
an opportunity this season.
The Seahawks were forced to try out other running backs in 2020
with both Penny and starter Chris Carson missing time due to injuries
and, to the team’s credit, they saw success with almost everyone
who saw significant touches. Carlos Hyde, DeeJay
Dallas and Alex
Collins all turned in viable fantasy performances at running
back for Seattle, so there’s reason to believe that Penny could
contribute as well if Carson does end up going down again, but
it’s also very possible that he won’t be given the first opportunity
should that happen.
Penny is a late-round dart throw option whose health concerns
have masked an otherwise fairly talented player. Don’t go
into your drafts thinking he’s a certainty to contribute
anything this year, but you could do worse if you’re simply
searching for a player who does have some “boom” potential
late in your draft.
One of the top breakout superstars of the 2020 season was wide
receiver DK Metcalf. He turned in an excellent rookie season in
2019, but he established himself as one of the league’s
most dominant pass catchers this past season when he caught 83
passes for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. Perhaps most impressive
was Metcalf’s consistency, as he was able to catch at least
four passes in 12 of 16 contests for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks threw the ball at an uncharacteristically high rate
to start the 2020 season which led to a big start to the season
for Metcalf, but we did see a bit of a drop off from him later
in the year. Still, Metcalf finished the season as a top five
fantasy wide receiver in standard scoring formats and he was in
the top 10 in average yards per target, proving that his upside
could be even higher if he is given more opportunities.
WR1 overall is probably not realistic for Metcalf just given
how Seattle tends to play, but Metcalf is a strong bet to be a
top 10 wide receiver again this season. His only established competition
for targets is Tyler Lockett and we’ve already seen that those
two can both feast even in this relatively low volume passing
attack.
While the concerns about DK Metcalf being a “boom or bust” type
of receiver have been put to rest, the player who truly exemplifies
that phrase is actually his teammate, Tyler Lockett. An absurdly
hot start to the 2020 season allowed Lockett to scrape together
a top-12 WR finish on the year in non-PPR formats, but ask any
fantasy owners who had a stake in the Seahawks wide receiver and
you’ll hear the disappointment in his or her voice as the tales
of his pathetic second half are retold. From Week 8 through the
fantasy championship of Week 16, Lockett scored just one touchdown.
Worse yet, he failed to exceed 67 yards in any of those nine contests.
It was an abysmal finish to what looked like it could be a monster
season for Lockett, who was the fantasy WR1 overall after six
games.
As we look into 2021, there is no longer a conversation about
who the WR1 is in Seattle - it’s Metcalf. But that doesn’t
necessarily mean that Lockett can’t also provide some fantasy
production this upcoming season. There’s still very little
target competition in Seattle so he should see significant enough
opportunities to contribute some boom weeks which would be particularly
helpful in best ball formats which continue to become more popular
each year. Even in traditional formats, though, Lockett should
at least be a bit more consistent, assuming that the Seahawks
do end up leaning a bit more on their passing game than they did
down the stretch in 2020. Still, there will likely be time that
Lockett disappoints and it’s been difficult to predict his
spike weeks, so he could be frustrating to own yet again this
season.
The Seahawks moved on from wide receiver David Moore this offseason
but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re going
to be leaning less on their passing game. While they didn’t
bring in another wide receiver of note in free agency, they did
spend their second round pick on D’Wayne Eskridge, a wide
receiver from Western Michigan.
Eskridge spent five years at the school, never reaching 800 yards
in a season, but he did produce huge per-game numbers as a second-year
senior in 2020. Eskridge caught 33 passes for 768 yards and eight
touchdowns in just six games in his final collegiate season, drawing
the attention from some NFL scouts. It was a bit of a surprise
to many when he went off the board to Seattle in the second round,
but it shows that the team sees something in him. Given that the
Seahawks had just one draft pick in the first three rounds, they
obviously are hoping that he can be an immediate contributor for
the team.
Seattle’s target share is seriously imbalanced as they
leaned extremely heavily on Metcalf in Lockett in 2020. That won’t
likely change much in 2021, but there is still some opportunity
for Eskridge to see some targets this season. He’s more
of a dynasty consideration than anything else, but there’s
a chance that he could become viable should Metcalf or Lockett
go down with an injury.
The Seahawks have been searching for a tight end since Jimmy
Graham left in 2018 and whether it’s been due to injury
or just a general lack of skill, they’re yet to find anyone
who can contribute much on the field, especially when it comes
to fantasy points scored. This offseason, however, they did add
a player who has at least shown signs of pass catching prowess
when they signed former Rams tight end Gerald Everett.
Everett has been stuck in one of the league’s most bizarre
tight end situations, competing with Tyler Higbee for playing
time in what has, at times, been one of the league’s best
offenses. We’ve seen some big performances from both players
when the other was out, but they’ve typically cannibalized
one another enough that neither have been a viable weekly fantasy
contributor so long as both are on the field.
With only Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson to compete with in
Seattle, Everett should finally have an opportunity to see the
majority of snaps in what should be an efficient Seahawks offense.
Russell Wilson does have a history of finding his tight ends in
the end zone and while touchdowns are not all that consistent,
the tight end position is pretty much a crapshoot from week to
week if you’re not blessed with having one of the elite
performers. There’s very little chance that Everett becomes
one of those elite performers, but you’re paying almost
nothing for him in drafts and there’s a chance that he does
finish in the top-12 at the position.
