The 2022 season was tough for the Packers, particularly for future
Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. The QB threw for just 217 yards per
game-by far the worst number of his career-and he threw 12 interceptions,
the second-worst number of his career. While it’s true that
Rodgers didn’t have much to work with in the pass-catching
department, the signs of aging were much more apparent than at
any point prior. He rushed for just 94 yards on the season-the
fewest of his career as a starter--and added just one touchdown
on the ground after contributing three rushing scores in both
2020 and 2021. Now heading into his 19th NFL season, Rodgers hopes
that a change of scenery could be the catalyst for returning him
back to his former glory as a three-time NFL MVP.
Rodgers heads to New York to join the Jets and while a veteran
QB heading to a new situation doesn’t always lead to great success,
the similarities to Tom Brady’s move to Tampa Bay are glaring.
Rodgers joins a team that has been in desperate need of competent
quarterback play, coached by one of the league’s bright young
coaches, and he’ll have the opportunity to throw to this past
year’s AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson. Wilson
broke out as a rookie and should provide Rodgers with a reliable
WR1, which he was sorely missing this past season. In fact, Rodgers’
leading receiver from a season ago, Allen Lazard, came to New
York along with his QB and should find himself in a much more
natural role as his new team’s No. 2 or even No. 3 option in the
passing game.
The fantasy game has changed so much, especially at QB, due to
the rushing ability that many of the top signal callers are bringing
to the table. But there’s still space for a player like Rodgers
to finish inside QB1 range this season. No QB in NFL history offers
a higher TD/INT ratio throughout his career than Rodgers. In fact,
it’s not even close. Only four QBs ever (Aaron Rodgers, Patrick
Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady) have higher than a 3.0
TD/INT ratio throughout their careers. Still, Rodgers is an outlier
even amongst outliers in this category, with a completely absurd
4.52 TD/INT over his career. Having the ability to provide league-leading
touchdown numbers along with single-digit interceptions makes
Rodgers an under-the-radar safe fantasy option who still provides
upside at the position. He’s no longer the sexy option that he
used to be, but he’s currently being drafted outside the top-12
at the position and that’s pretty much his floor. He’s someone
to target if you wait at the position this season.
If it wasn’t for the extremely unfortunate ACL tear that
he suffered in Week 7 of his rookie campaign in 2022, we’d
almost certainly be talking about Breece Hall being a first-round
pick in fantasy drafts this season. Even though he began the season
splitting touches in his own backfield, Hall became one of the
league’s true bell cows by Week 4 and was well on his way
to finishing as a top-five fantasy RB.
Heading into his sophomore season, however, the only real concern
that fantasy managers should have is when he might be back on
the field. We’ve seen some incredible recovery times for
players who’ve suffered similar injuries as of late, but
we’ve also seen players like J.K. Dobbins and others struggle
to get back on the field. The fact that Hall’s injury took
place during the middle of the season is concerning because he
won’t have anywhere close to a full year to recover before
the team suits up to play in Week 1. Jets head coach Robert Saleh
has been optimistic when he’s been asked about Hall’s
recovery and we’ve seen videos of Hall running in a straight
line, but that’s not enough for us to really draw anything
conclusive from.
Hall is a classic example of an unknown heading into draft season,
but the unknown is completely health-based. We know the talent
is there. His upside, if he’s healthy, is an elite RB1,
which is why he’s still being drafted in the top 15 of the
RB position. That could change dramatically if we see significant
changes to his health, of course, but as of right now, this is
a complete risk/reward scenario for fantasy managers. If you do
end up selecting Hall in drafts, be sure to prioritize landing
additional reliable options at the position, as it’s very
possible that you’ll be without him early in the season.
When he does get back on the field and ramped up physically, however,
the sky is truly the limit for this talented young back.
Many fantasy managers had high hopes for 2021 rookie Michael
Carter, but those who were paying closer attention should have
known that he was always a trap. Breece Hall is simply the much
more talented back and he was always going to take over that team’s
starting job while leaving scraps for the other players in the
backfield. What we didn’t expect was that not only would
Hall take over the job by Week 4, but Carter himself would end
up losing his top spot on the Jets’ RB depth yet again even
after Hall suffered a season-ending injury. In fact, despite playing
in every game for the Jets in 2022, Carter failed to reach double-digit
carries in any game after Week 9, and didn’t see more than
five carries in any of the Jets’ final five games.
Now heading into his third season, some fantasy managers are
beginning to do it to themselves yet again. Breece Hall’s
ACL injury means that he might not be ready to play in Week 1,
so the tendency to look down the depth chart at the RB2 position
simply becomes too enticing for some. Carter is being viewed by
way too many managers as the “handcuff” for Hall,
but there’s really no reason to believe that will be true.
His two years of experience in the Jets’ offense and his
pass-catching ability likely give him the edge over other players
in this backfield, but we’ve already seen him lose his job
to the likes of Zonovan Knight, who is also still on the roster.
The Jets also drafted Israel Abanikanda in the fifth round of
the 2023 NFL Draft, making this one of the most crowded backfields
in the entire league.
Carter is currently a late-round pick in most drafts, but there’s
some real potential for that ADP to skyrocket if we find out that
Hall is unlikely to play in Week 1. The talent is there for Carter
to produce as an RB2 for fantasy if he’s given the role-there’s
just no reason to believe that’ll happen. For that reason,
Carter could end up being a huge trap for fantasy managers late
in draft season. He’s fine to select now given his late-round
ADP, but Abanikanda or Knight might end up being the best value
of these backs in the unfortunate scenario where Hall ends up
missing significant time.
The 2022 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year returns for his
second season, now with a significant upgrade at quarterback,
in an offense that is expected to be much better than it was under
the likes of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco. Aaron Rodgers
might not be the player he was during his prime, but he’s
certainly an upgrade over what Wilson had as a rookie when he
caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards. Not only that, but Rodgers is
an absolute surgeon in the red zone, which should help Wilson
improve upon the four touchdowns he scored.
Wilson is one of those players who we’ve seen good things
from, but who hasn’t quite ascended into the “elite”
tier at the position yet, so less-knowledgeable fantasy managers
might overlook this talented young pass catcher. He’s currently
being drafted in the third round of most drafts, which seems fair
given that offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has proven
to be a slow-paced play-caller and that might limit Wilson’s
true upside to finish near the top of the fantasy WRs. However,
we’ve seen Rodgers support some truly monster fantasy seasons
from his WR1s in the past, and with Wilson being the locked-in
WR1 in this offense, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic
that Wilson breaks into the “reliable WR1” tier here
in 2023.
While the Jets’ WR1 spot is locked in, the competition
at WR2 only became murkier this off-season when the Jets added
veterans Mecole Hardman from Kansas City and Allen Lazard from
Green Bay to compete with Corey Davis. Davis has been a disappointment
throughout his career, but after a near-1000-yard season for the
Titans in 2020, his move to the Jets has been borderline disastrous.
He caught just 32 passes in 2022 and while plenty of that can
be blamed on the awful quarterback situation he had to deal with,
it’s also true that Davis just wasn’t getting open
at the rate the team needs from their WR2.
Given what we know about Davis’ development, it makes sense
to assume that Lazard, who joins the Packers after playing alongside
Aaron Rodgers for the past five seasons, has the inside track
to start the season as the Jets’ WR2 opposite Garrett Wilson.
Lazard is coming off his best season as a pro, having led the
Packers with 60 receptions for 788 yards and six touchdowns. While
he’s just not good enough to be a team’s WR1, there’s
no reason to think that Lazard isn’t talented enough to
beat out perennial disappointments like Davis and Hardman.
For fantasy purposes, however, it’s hard to imagine a scenario
in which Lazard provides anything better than WR4 numbers for
fantasy this season. He’s likely to see fewer than the 100
targets he got in 2022 and with Rodgers’ propensity to lean
on his WR1, we could be looking at Wilson being the only Jets’
WR worth rostering for fantasy. Still, Lazard and Rodgers do have
some chemistry and if the Jets’ offense ascends like many
believe it will, there could be some reasonably productive weeks
from Lazard and that could make him a decent occasional fill-in
for fantasy managers in deeper leagues.
Veteran tight end Tyler Conklin joined the Jets in 2022 after
spending four years with the Vikings and he immediately made an
impact. Conklin scored a touchdown in his first game with his
new team and proceeded to see 24 targets over his first three
games of the season. While many of the top tight ends were struggling
to start the season, Conklin was looking like a potential difference-maker
at the position after just a few weeks with his new team…and
then reality hit.
Conklin would catch just 19 passes over the Jets’ eight-game
span from Week 5 through Week 12. This horrendous stretch was
followed up by a mediocre end-of-the-season run as well, which
resulted in Conklin finishing outside of TE1 range and miles away
from being an actual difference-maker at the position. At this
point, we know what Conklin is-a starting-caliber NFL tight end
who has his moments, but is way too inconsistent to be relied
upon for fantasy purposes.
Some have pointed to the Jets’ quarterback upgrade as being
a reason to be back in on Conklin as a late-round tight end and
while it’s hard to deny that the rising tide of Aaron Rodgers
joining the team should lift all boats, it’s also true that
Rodgers hasn’t historically targeted his tight ends at a
very high rate. Robert Tonyan and Jermichael Finley have both
had outlier seasons in the touchdown department when playing with
Rodgers, which isn’t out of the question for Conklin, but
neither player scored more than five touchdowns in any other season
other than their one standout campaign.
There are just too many other options with higher upside than
Conklin for him to be considered in normal fantasy drafts.
