In 2023, Aaron Rodgers had his season abruptly ended on the opening
drive due to a severe torn Achilles. He has since been working
diligently to return to the field and is expected to start the
2024 season. With only veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor behind
him, Rodgers faces no significant competition for the starting
quarterback position.
The former Packers QB finished as QB13 in 2022 and QB8 in 2021,
but those achievements were in an offense that succeeded even
without him this past season. Nonetheless, Rodgers has the potential
to deliver a low-end QB1 fantasy season in 2024.
The primary concern is that his ceiling isn’t much higher
than a borderline QB1, given his lack of mobility and the Jets'
offense not being particularly high-powered in previous seasons.
Rodgers' best fantasy performances have come when he led the league
in touchdowns-per-attempt percentage, a category in which he excels.
However, he has been under five percent in three of the past five
seasons before 2023, raising concerns, especially now that he's
in a new offense. In 2023, nine different NFL quarterbacks had
a passing touchdown percentage above five percent, including Jordan
Love, Rodgers' replacement in Green Bay, who finished with a 5.5%
touchdown rate.
For Rodgers to exceed the mid-QB2 range in 2024, the Jets' defense
would need to decline significantly, or Breece Hall would need
to be injured, either of which could lead to an increase in Rodgers'
total pass attempts. He’s been among the league’s slowest quarterbacks
in plays-per-game in recent seasons, so he’s not likely to get
to high pass attempt totals unless the scoreboard requires it.
Without that, Rodgers will need to revert to his historically
high touchdown rates to surpass expectations.
Breece Hall is recognized as one of the league’s most dynamic
running backs, finishing the previous season as RB2 and a true
difference-maker at the position. Leading all running backs with
95 targets, Hall secured 76 catches for 591 yards, topping the
league in both categories in 2023. He also contributed four touchdowns
in the passing game. Although his receiving stats were somewhat
inflated by a 16-target game against the Commanders in Week 15,
Hall's performance remained impressive even without that game,
keeping him at the top in most running back receiving metrics.
If not for Christian McCaffrey's extraordinary numbers in San
Francisco, Hall would likely be the frontrunner for the RB1 spot
in drafts this season.
Now set to play alongside Aaron Rodgers, a quarterback known
for his highly effective check-down passes, Hall stands to benefit
significantly. Throughout his career, Rodgers has consistently
boosted the performance of running backs in the passing game,
as seen with Aaron Jones being targeted 68, 63, 65, and 72 times
during his tenure as Green Bay’s primary back alongside
Rodgers. That number fell to just 43 targets for Jones in 2023
as he played alongside Jordan Love. Given Hall’s superior
receiving skills compared to Jones, his targets are unlikely to
decrease substantially in 2024, adding to his nice, high floor
in PPR formats.
With Rodgers at the helm, the Jets' offense is expected to improve,
potentially enhancing Hall’s rushing opportunities as well.
Despite his talent, Hall has only scored nine rushing touchdowns
over his first two seasons, primarily due to the Jets' struggling
offense, which often necessitated a focus on the passing game.
Increased offensive efficiency should theoretically lead to more
red zone opportunities and, consequently, more goal-line rush
attempts for Hall in 2024.
Overall, Hall is one of the safest picks this season, having
already proven himself as one of the league’s best running
backs in a poor offense. With an anticipated improvement in the
Jets' offensive performance, Hall has a strong chance to exceed
his previous achievements and solidify his status as an elite
fantasy running back.
The Jets' fourth-round draft pick Braelon Allen has emerged as
a standout player during OTA practices, prompting many to believe
he has already secured the RB2 role. Despite his impressive performance,
though, Allen remains stuck behind one of the league’s best
all-around running backs (Breece Hall), limiting his opportunities
to see the field unless Hall suffers an injury.
However, if Allen manages to carve out a role in the Jets' offense,
his size and speed combination make him an intriguing prospect.
Standing at 6-2 and weighing 235 lbs, Allen averaged over 3.6
yards after contact per attempt during his collegiate career,
with nearly 5.9 yards per attempt and 35 rushing touchdowns. Additionally,
he has received high praise for his pass-catching ability in Jets
camp, indicating potential as an every-down back if Hall is sidelined.
For now, Allen should be considered a pure handcuff, but his
potential makes him an interesting late-round pick. If given the
opportunity, Allen could prove to be a valuable asset in the Jets'
backfield.
In 2023, Garrett Wilson saw substantial volume in a struggling
Jets offense but lacked the efficiency to make a significant impact.
He finished fourth in the league with 168 targets, accounting
for over 30 percent of the team's target share. While he accumulated
a high number of total air yards due to his volume of targets,
his average target distance ranked outside the top 60, leading
to poor per-target efficiency. Additionally, the Jets' quarterbacks
struggled with accuracy, further contributing to Wilson's inefficiency.
Despite playing in all 34 games over his two professional seasons,
Wilson has finished as WR24 and WR21. The Jets' quarterback situation
has been one of the worst in the league during Wilson's tenure,
so the arrival of Aaron Rodgers should be a significant improvement.
However, Wilson's projected breakout as a WR1 is already being
factored into his draft position, as he is often selected near
the beginning of the second round in most drafts, making him an
expected top-12 player at his position despite not having achieved
such numbers previously.
Wilson has demonstrated excellent skills early in his career,
but he remains a somewhat risky draft pick. The uncertainty lies
in not knowing which version of Aaron Rodgers will be on the field
or whether he and Wilson will develop an immediate connection.
WR Mike Williams
(2023 WR Rank – No.113, 16.7 FPts/G)
Boom or bust has defined Mike Williams' NFL career, and now the
former first-round draft pick heads to New York to play alongside
future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Williams only played
three games this past season but delivered spectacular performances
during that short span, ranking as the WR10 in average fantasy
points per game. Despite having played seven NFL seasons with
talented quarterbacks like Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert, Williams
has only reached 1,000 yards twice. While Rodgers may be the only
future Hall of Famer among them, the 2024 version of Rodgers might
be the least effective quarterback Williams has played significant
snaps with.
Williams is known as a classic "better in best ball"
player, given his unpredictable week-to-week performances and
the frustration of managing his history of spike weeks followed
by duds. Currently being selected outside the top 50 at his position
in drafts, Williams' acquisition cost is low, making him a reasonable
late-round pick as a WR5/6.
Malachi Corley, dubbed by some as "the 2024 class' Deebo
Samuel," brings a unique skill set to a Jets offense that
desperately needs playmakers to complement Breece Hall and Garrett
Wilson. Although Corley isn't particularly tall or fast, his 215-pound
frame and exceptional tackle-breaking ability made him a formidable
opponent for defenses at Western Kentucky. Drafted with the first
pick of the third round, it's clear the Jets view Corley as more
than just a gadget player.
Corley could become a short-yardage specialist with significant
big-play YAC (yards after catch) potential, a rare role for wide
receivers. Given Aaron Rodgers' history of success with similar
players like Randall Cobb, it's conceivable that Corley could
have a breakout rookie season. However, he's most likely to finish
fourth or even fifth on the team in targets.
Tyler Conklin finished the previous season as the TE18 and is
being drafted in a similar position for 2024. While Conklin is
likely to out-produce his ADP, a true breakout season seems unlikely.
He has never finished higher than TE15, which he achieved in 2022,
and his career season-high is just three receiving touchdowns.
However, there's a good chance he will exceed that mark in 2024.
Aaron Rodgers has a history of utilizing his tight ends near
the goal line, leading to high touchdown seasons for players like
Richard Rodgers (8 touchdowns), Jermichael Finley (8 touchdowns),
and Robert Tonyan (11 touchdowns). Conklin could follow this trend
and become a decent TE2 with a few spike weeks due to multiple
touchdowns. However, given the evolving tight end landscape, players
like Conklin are not worth significant draft capital.
