Graham's fantasy value may take a slight
hit, but it certainly won't freefall now that he's a Seahawk.
Every offseason there is one move that seems to defy logic; some
unproven commodity gets a boatload of cash, or some veteran all-pro
gets his walking papers. And once in a blue moon a trade goes down
that makes a slight splash in the fantasy world. Maybe an aging
veteran running back gets new life in an up-tempo offense (Darren
Sproles in 2014) or a quarterback brings a steady hand to a rudderless
ship (Matt Schaub). Ok, fine, so Schaub was a disaster, but you
get the idea. But the first day of the 2015 league year saw one
of the biggest fantasy relevant trades in quite some time when Jimmy
Graham was dealt to the Super Bowl runner-up Seattle Seahawks.
Fantasy Impact
Unarguably the best fantasy player at his position for several years
(sorry Gronk), and possibly the most valuable fantasy asset in the
game, Jimmy Graham packs his bags for the great Northwest after
dominating the NFC south to the tune of 89-1099-11 per season over
the past three years. The first thing to consider when evaluating
a pass catcher’s fantasy impact is the guy pulling the trigger.
Going from Drew Brees to Russell Wilson is a big drop-off in passing
game chops, but Wilson has two straight Super Bowl appearances with
back-up and free agent level talent at receiver. Brees peppered
Graham with targets the last four seasons, but saw a troubling drop-off
in efficiency last season. Graham goes from one Pro Bowler to another,
so we won’t get much clarity here. The biggest threat to Graham’s
seat at the fantasy banquet will come in the form of offensive philosophy.
The Saints attempted 200 more passes than the Seahawks in 2014,
and was squarely a pass-first offense during Graham’s dominating
stretch of play. As we’ve seen these last two years, Seattle
relies on a battering running game, and a slippery Wilson who picks
his shots downfield to wear down opponents and close out games.
It’s fair to say that Graham is going to be hard-pressed to
approach the 138 targets he averaged over the last few seasons.
But before you sour on Graham too fast, keep in mind that Seattle’s
No.1 receiver, Doug Baldwin, who will never get confused with Jerry
Rice, totaled nearly (98) 100 targets last season. Lacking playmakers
in the short and intermediate range, Graham should step right in
and lead this team in targets immediately. His size, catch radius,
and ability to dominate linebackers and nickel corners off the line,
means Graham should maintain a fairly high level of opportunities.
A season with approaching 70 catches is certainly within reason.
A drop-off, yes, freefall no.
The one area I do have concern about production is the red zone.
For years Graham was option one, two and three on every pass play
within 20 yards of the end zone. Graham actually has nine 1-yard
touchdown catches on 9 attempts in his career! But while the Saints
had no running threat close to the goaline, Seattle has one of the
game’s best in Marshawn Lynch. In 2014, Lynch accounted for
more than half (16) of the team’s 30 red zone scores. Graham
scored 9 of his 10 touchdowns from inside the 20 in 2014. Will there
be enough red zone scoring opportunities for Graham in Seattle?
The answer to that question will go a long way in determining Graham’s
final fantasy numbers.
NFL teams almost never trade young, dominating offensive players,
even in a sad attempt to save a few bucks. Whatever reason the Saints
have for moving Graham, be it toughness questions, blocking liability
or finances, Seattle must be thrilled to add a passing game centerpiece
to pair with Wilson and the Lynch led run game. Seattle brought
in Graham to run pass patterns, not to be an in-line blocker. For
an offensive system that gets the most of its talent, expect Graham
to move around the formation, thrive off play-action fakes and crossing
patterns, and still be a clear-cut TE1 for your fantasy team.
