QB Andy
Dalton (2014 QB Rank - No.18, 17.9 FPts/G)
Listen, Andy Dalton was an unmitigated disaster last year. Coming
off a monster 2013 where he finished with 33 touchdowns and over
4,000 yards passing, the fantasy world knew there would be some
regression in 2014. A change in offensive philosophy combined with
serious injuries to top pass catchers Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones,
and A.J. Green, led to the near total collapse of Dalton’s fantasy
value. His 2014 season went up in flames and ended in yet another
playoff disaster, but there is reason to believe Dalton can make
like a phoenix-like rise from the ashes to become a value QB1 again.
Make no mistake - Dalton is not an elite talent. He turns the ball
over too much and is prone to some catastrophic games, but he’s
big and strong, possesses a mediocre but accurate arm (64% completion
percentage). He also takes a beating, and is a team leader. He’s
one of the many quarterbacks that are dependent on the talent around
them. Luckily for Dalton, he’s surrounded by some of the best
skill position players in the NFL. Bernard and Hill provide a deadly
1-2 punch from the backfield, and when healthy, Green, Jones, Sanu
and Eifert have the potential to form one of the leagues’
most talented and explosive pass catching assemblies. With Green
back fully healthy, and Eifert and Jones back from season’s
long injuries, Dalton has the stable of pass catchers that came
with his elite 2013 season. Dalton had 66 total touchdowns in 2012
and 2013 combined, so a return to relevance isn’t out of the
realm of reason. With offensive coordinator Hue Jackson stating
his desire to open up the offense this season, look for Dalton’s
pass attempts to go back over 500, after dipping to a career low
483 last year. Dalton has the weapons and confidence of his coaches
to return to top-10 status. With the questionable secondaries of
Baltimore and Pittsburgh on the schedule for a quarter of the season,
Dalton is a sneaky QB2 value pick that could make for a fantastic
streamer in weekly leagues.
With rookie Jeremy Hill being brought on slowly to start the season,
Bernard was the lead horse in the Cincinnati backfield over the
first few weeks of 2014. While his overall fantasy numbers were
strong in the first few games, he failed to reach 4.0 yards per
carry during the first three games of the season, and look positively
worn down by midseason, where he missed several games due to injury.
By the time he returned in Week 12, Jeremy Hill had exhibited a
dominant skill set and clearly had usurped lead runner duties. Cincinnati
and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson realized that Bernard was
best used as a receiver and space back, where he could utilize his
quickness to make chunk plays. So while Hill continued to hammer
it on the ground, Bernard was phased out of the run game and became
a dual threat weapon as a pass receiver. Over the final three games
of the season he had more receptions (20) than rushing attempts
(14). With a successful formula discovered, look for Bernard to
used in a similar fashion for the 2015 season. Bernard will compliment
Hill, and do most of his damage as receiver, making him a gem in
PPR leagues. In standard leagues, his lack of consistent carries
and goal line work, means his value will be much more limited, making
Bernard more of a low tier RB2.
Power, speed, elusiveness – you name it, Jeremy Hill displayed
it in 2014. The former LSU Tiger had a dominant rookie season, putting
up a 222-1124-9 line. Hill’s stats are even more impressive
considering he didn’t see consistent touches until Week 8!
Hill was fantasy gold and one of the best values of any player last
year. So what can fantasy owners expect as an encore in his sophomore
season? I fully expect Hill to be a top-5 running back, and a shoe-in
first round pick in drafts. His 5.1 ypc average, size-speed combination,
and ability to play on all three downs means he’ll rarely
come off the field, and easily surpass the 222 carry total from
last season. Hill displayed an impressive ability to make big plays
by breaking tackles, as he accumulated 11 carries of 10+ yards-after-contact
(behind only Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster). The returned health
of the Bengals passing threats means defenses simply cannot afford
to put eight men in the box. The offensive line is better and younger,
and this whole Cincinnati offense has a chance to put up a serious
amount of points, and Hill stands to benefit. With health, he’s
a lock for 1,200 yards and 10+ touchdowns, and has one of the highest
upsides of any fantasy back in the league. I wouldn’t hesitate
to make Hill a very early pick, and a strong RB1.
You can make a case for Green being undervalued
at his current ADP (2.09, WR8) in 12-team leagues.
Green is my darkhorse pick for overall WR1. This should tell you
all you need to know about how I feel about his fantasy prospects
entering the 2015 season. A nagging toe injury sapped his speed
and quickness for much of the season, but despite missing four games
he was able to put up a 69-1046-6 line and finish as a WR2 in standard
leagues. Precedent and his effectiveness make me believe that Green
is one of the best receivers in the league and he has a good a chance
as any to be fantasy’s top receiver.
Before his injury plagued 2014 season, Green finished as fantasy’s
No.4 overall receiver in 2012 and 2013. He’s one of the few
receivers in the league capable of hitting a big play from anywhere
on the field, will be peppered with targets in an offense that projects
to pass more frequently, and actually had the second-highest per
catch average of his career last year even thought he was rarely
fully healthy. Being injured may have forced him to work harder
on the technical aspects of route running, and it doesn’t
hurt that he’s also in a contract year. The threat of the
running game will keep defenses honest, and Green will benefit from
the return of Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert as coverages can’t
roll in his direction as frequently. Sure there are a bunch of reason’s
(more options in the red zone, the erratic play of Andy Dalton)
why Green might not rise to No.1, but it’s not for lack of
talent. I see several flashes in the pan (Beckham, Evans) and guys
with less pedigree (Jeffrey) being ranked near or above Green. There
honestly aren’t three receivers in the league I’d take
over Green, which means he could be an easy WR1 value pick for any
fantasy team.
After taking a second-year leap and coming out of nowhere to score
10 touchdowns in 2013, Marvin Jones ended up missing the entire
2014 season with a broken foot. Lost in his breakout season was
the fact he became an integral part of the passing offense, notching
5-plus catches in each of the last four games, including an 8-catch
130-yard game in the playoffs. Sure, the touchdown total was never
sustainable, but the fact he became such a trusted redzone threat,
and serious part of the game plan mean fantasy owners need to
notice in 2015. Fifteen months removed from that breakout season
means that Jones will not be a hot fantasy name among your league,
and is very likely to be overlooked. The less talented Mohammed
Sanu finished last year as a borderline WR3. I really think this
offense is going to be a fantasy treasure trove, and Jones could
be one of those gems. Don’t expect 10 touchdowns again, but Jones
has the opportunity, talent, and most importantly health to be
a factor as a WR3 with upside.
Forced into the No.2 receiver role because of the season ending
injury to Marvin Jones, the former Rutgers standout set career
highs in catches (57), yards (790) and touchdowns (5). And while
he technically finished as a low-end WR3, most of Sanu’s yearly
value came in a total of five games where he totaled nearly 63
percent of his season yardage total and scored four of his five
touchdowns (Coincidently those were games missed by A.J. Green,
leaving Sanu as the de-facto receiving threat.) Outside of those
five games, and especially down the stretch, Sanu barely registered
a blip on the fantasy radar. An inability to get open against
quicker, and more physical defenders, and plagued by a league
leading 14 dropped passes, Sanu will find it nearly impossible
to be fantasy relevant with the return of Marvin Jones and Tyler
Eifert. Sanu will probably be relegated to the No.5 passing option
at best, and that simply isn’t enough volume to give him much
fantasy value.
I think it says a lot about the ragged state of the fantasy tight
end position when a guy coming off an arm injury that cost him
his entire second season is generating fantasy buzz. With every
owner scrambling to find tight end value outside of the studs,
it seems like there are a host of players who offer potential
starting tight end possibilities. Eifert is one of those guys.
After a somewhat disappointing rookie season where he failed to
make a real impact (39 receptions, 2 touchdowns), Eifert enters
2015 healthy and ready to contribute to a young offensive nucleus
that is waiting to break out. Eifert excels as a flex tight end,
and he should find plenty of room down the seam and across the
middle while defenses focus on A.J. Green. His build and game
reminds me a lot of Zach Ertz, and I think that’s about where
I see Eifert’s production. He could push for 50+ catches, 600+
yards and 5 scores, putting him squarely in starting tight end
conversation. If you’re tight end strategy is to collect a few,
throw them in your lineup and see what happens, Eifert is a candidate
with upside.
