Opportunity in a pass heavy offense should
put Marvin Jones in the low end WR2 conversation.
It’s hard enough to fill the shadow of a potential hall of
famer, but it’s even harder when that shadow was 6’5’’,
240 pounds and belonged to the most physically dominant receiver
in NFL history. That’s the tall order freshly signed, former
Cincinnati Bengal Marvin Jones faces in 2016 as he attempts to lessen
the blow of loss of Calvin Johnson.
Jones, the 5th year player out of Cal might not be as physically
imposing as Megatron, but at 6’2, 200 he’s no slouch.
Jones, running as the outside compliment to A.J. Green in Cincinnati
had a nearly invisible rookie year, before catching everyone’s
attention with a 10-touchdown season in 2013. On his way to becoming
a potential fantasy phenom, Jones broke his foot and missed all
of the 2014 season. He proved healthy, and more than capable, as
he picked up a career best 65 receptions for 816 yards in 2015.
He obviously struggled to keep up the unsustainable touchdown per
5 reception rate he had in 2013 as he finished last season with
just four scores.
At first glance the 5-year $40 million dollar deal seems like serious
coin for a guy who hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since
2013 and was never more than a complementary receiver for Cincinnati.
But perhaps his numbers were suppressed by being a 3rd or 4th option
in a balanced offense. I was curious, so I went to see what Jones
did when he was asked to fill the shoes of Tyler Eifert, while the
young tight end missed time last year. I hoped to see a marked increase
in production, but what I saw were stats that were very much in
line with his season totals. In the three games EIfert missed, he
tallied 12 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t
seem to be any bigger part of the offensive game plan, and if he
was, he very much failed to take advantage of what were surely one-on-one
matchups with defensive backs. In fact, Mohamed Sanu, Jones’s
free agent teammate was usually the receiver that picked up the
slack when one of Cincinnati’s top receivers missed time.
A quick glance at the numbers, and 3-year body of work don’t
scream BREAKOUT to me. Being the 1a receiver in Detroit certainly
means his targets and opportunities should surpass his career season
highs, but I have my doubts that he has the ability to be an impact
fantasy player. Aside for that fluky 10 touchdown season (four of
which came in one monster game), Jones hasn’t exactly jumped
off the page. The former 5th-round pick should carve out a nice
role for the Lions, but I think it’s a stretch to assume he’ll
step up and dominate targets. He’ll be an effective red zone
option, but will struggle to beat double teams. The development
of Eric Ebron, and the running game will go a long way in determining
Jones’s final numbers. If Ebron can be a threat and command
more attention, if the running game can bring the safeties up, Jones
has a chance for a more open secondary. In the end, opportunity
on a pass heavy offense should alone put him in the low end WR2
conversation, and worthy of mid-round pick in fantasy drafts.
