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Colby Cavaliere | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Marvin Jones Has Big Shoes to Fill
2016 Fantasy Impact
3/10/16

 

Marvin Jones

Opportunity in a pass heavy offense should put Marvin Jones in the low end WR2 conversation.


It’s hard enough to fill the shadow of a potential hall of famer, but it’s even harder when that shadow was 6’5’’, 240 pounds and belonged to the most physically dominant receiver in NFL history. That’s the tall order freshly signed, former Cincinnati Bengal Marvin Jones faces in 2016 as he attempts to lessen the blow of loss of Calvin Johnson.

Jones, the 5th year player out of Cal might not be as physically imposing as Megatron, but at 6’2, 200 he’s no slouch. Jones, running as the outside compliment to A.J. Green in Cincinnati had a nearly invisible rookie year, before catching everyone’s attention with a 10-touchdown season in 2013. On his way to becoming a potential fantasy phenom, Jones broke his foot and missed all of the 2014 season. He proved healthy, and more than capable, as he picked up a career best 65 receptions for 816 yards in 2015. He obviously struggled to keep up the unsustainable touchdown per 5 reception rate he had in 2013 as he finished last season with just four scores.

At first glance the 5-year $40 million dollar deal seems like serious coin for a guy who hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since 2013 and was never more than a complementary receiver for Cincinnati. But perhaps his numbers were suppressed by being a 3rd or 4th option in a balanced offense. I was curious, so I went to see what Jones did when he was asked to fill the shoes of Tyler Eifert, while the young tight end missed time last year. I hoped to see a marked increase in production, but what I saw were stats that were very much in line with his season totals. In the three games EIfert missed, he tallied 12 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t seem to be any bigger part of the offensive game plan, and if he was, he very much failed to take advantage of what were surely one-on-one matchups with defensive backs. In fact, Mohamed Sanu, Jones’s free agent teammate was usually the receiver that picked up the slack when one of Cincinnati’s top receivers missed time.

A quick glance at the numbers, and 3-year body of work don’t scream BREAKOUT to me. Being the 1a receiver in Detroit certainly means his targets and opportunities should surpass his career season highs, but I have my doubts that he has the ability to be an impact fantasy player. Aside for that fluky 10 touchdown season (four of which came in one monster game), Jones hasn’t exactly jumped off the page. The former 5th-round pick should carve out a nice role for the Lions, but I think it’s a stretch to assume he’ll step up and dominate targets. He’ll be an effective red zone option, but will struggle to beat double teams. The development of Eric Ebron, and the running game will go a long way in determining Jones’s final numbers. If Ebron can be a threat and command more attention, if the running game can bring the safeties up, Jones has a chance for a more open secondary. In the end, opportunity on a pass heavy offense should alone put him in the low end WR2 conversation, and worthy of mid-round pick in fantasy drafts.