A devastating rash of injuries both to himself and his supporting
cast went a long way to making 2015 a season to forget for Flacco
and the Ravens offense. Before tearing his ACL, Flacco was downright
mediocre for the first ten games of the season. His 2,791 passing
yards was pretty good, but a gruesome 14-12 touchdown to interception
ratio rendered him basically useless as a fantasy asset.
So what awaits Joe and his fantasy prospects in year two of the
Marc Tressman offense? Probably more mediocrity. Despite being paid
a ridiculously high amount because of some clutch play in some tight
spots, Flacco has never put up the kind of numbers that push his
team, or yours, into the next level. In his eight years as a starter,
Flacco has failed to put up 30 touchdowns or 4,000 yards passing
in a season, stats that are basic thresholds for QB1 status. Even
is his best season, 2014, he only finished as the overall QB14.
Historically this Ravens team was built on defense and the ground
game, things that eroded these past few years, coinciding with the
struggles of the team. Flacco has now had to balance the rehab of
a serious injury with the continued development of the offensive
scheme. Never an effective volume thrower, I’m not sure the throw-first
Tressman offense is the best possible fit. While Joe’s supporting
cast has improved, it relies on twilight vets like Steve Smith and
Justin Forsett a little too much for my liking. Sure, Mike Wallace
was brought in during the offseason, and 2015 first-rounder Breshad
Perriman should be ready to play his first NFL snaps this year,
but nothing about his situation in 2016 makes me believe Flacco
can be anything more than a low end QB2 with little upside.
From top 10 in 2014, to barely top 50 in 2015, last season was a
long one for Forsett and his owners. Forsett was always a great
bet to be over drafted based on his previous year production, but
he was on his way to a respectable year even before going down with
a gruesome arm injury in the 10th game. On pace for a 225-1025-3
line on the ground, and 50 catches, Forsett could have been a least
in RB2 territory by season’s end, but there is very little
about his 2016 situation that makes him a thrilling addition to
a fantasy squad.
Let’s face facts. Forsett is an aging vet that was a career change-of-pace
back until his 2014 breakout. If you caught lighting in a bottle
that year, congrats. If you draft Forsett expecting that to happen
again, watch out for lighting striking you. He’s not built for 200-plus
touches , let alone 200-plus carries and the Ravens recognize this.
Young “Buck” Javorius Allen and 4th round rookie Kenneth Dixon should
do a majority of the heavy lifting on the ground, and allow Forsett
to be fresher and more effective as the season wears on. I’m going
to guess Forsett holds the title of starting running back in name
alone, and ends up as nothing more than a FLEX option or bye week
fill in this season. Forsett’s low ceiling make him an extremely
underwhelming fantasy prospect and not a player I want to invest
heavily in.
Javorius “Buck” Allen, the 2015 fourth-rounder from
Southern Cal was a bit player in the Ravens offense before starter
Justin Forsett went down with a season ending injury in Week 10.
Although he didn’t light the world on fire, Allen displayed
a versatile game and suitable fit for Tressman’s offense,
as he hauled in at least 4 passes in all but one of his starts,
with a high water mark of 12 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown
in Week 13 against Miami. He scored double digit fantasy points
in four of his seven starts, and finds himself in a three-way
dogfight for running back touches. Keep a very close eye on Allen’s
role in camp. Backs in the Tressman offense have been historically
productive, and Allen could be a late round value pick.
Dixon is on my radar in a big way and should see his value climb
as we move deeper into camp and the preseason. He runs with a
fury befitting his 5’11, 218 lb stature, and is also a sure
handed receiver that was considered by many to be the best pass
catching back in the 2016 draft. The second leading touchdown
scorer in FBS history (87 TDs), Dixon rushed for 1,000 yards in
three of his four years at Louisiana Tech, and combined to catch
63 passes in his junior and senior years. He seems to be a perfect
scheme and mentality fit for this Ravens team, and easily possesses
the biggest upside of the three Baltimore backs. Barring injury,
all three of these guys are going to get touches, but I’d
target Dixon late in the draft and sit on his potential. He might
be slow to see a bulk of touches, but much like the Cardinals’
David Johnson last season, given enough time his talent and ability
should help get him on the field.
WR Steve
Smith (2015 WR Rank - No.52, 12.1 FPts/G)
In 2014 Forsett and Steve Smith combined to carry the Ravens offense
on the back of their renaissance seasons. In 2015 their season
ending injuries combined to torpedo their team and set up a very
uncertain 2016. Before going down with a ruptured Achilles in
Week 8, Smith was downright filthy. With three double digit reception,
135-plus yard games through the season’s first six weeks,
Smith was on pace for another monster year in his farewell season.
The injury threw a wrench into those plans, and now Smith returns
a year older, and coming off one of the more severe lower leg
injuries a receiver can suffer. The list of players, let alone
receivers coming off Achilles injuries and returning to pre-injury
form is quite miniscule. A fiery competitor his whole career,
I know why he’s willing to endure the grueling rehab necessary
to return to the field, but I have to wonder just how much playing
time he will see. He likely won’t see the field for real
until the regular season, but even then it’s incumbent upon
the Ravens to give their younger receivers a chance to grow as
the franchise undergoes a rebuilding stage. I’m done counting
this guy out, but for my money, I wouldn’t be willing to
invest a significant draft resource to Smith when the time comes.
Who you gonna call? Kamar Aiken! Yeah, doesn’t quite have
the same ring to it as “Ghostbusters”, but that’s
who the Ravens (and savvy fantasy owners) called during the latter
half of 2015. Replacing Smith as the primary receiver, Aiken went
on to catch at least 5 passes, and compile 5 double digit target
games over the final eight games of the season. What’s more
impressive is that in many of those games Aiken was catching passes
from a motley crew of quarterbacks because of the injury to Flacco
(knee). Aiken returns in 2016 as the healthiest and most experienced
receiver on the team. He proved last season that route running
and sure hands will get you production. My biggest concert for
Aiken’s fantasy value stems from the signing of Mike Wallace,
and the expected healthy return of Perriman and Smith. The chances
for Aiken to lead the team in receiving will be there, but I’m
not sure that will be enough to lead to a repeat of his top 30
finish. Look at Aiken as a WR3 at the very best.
WR Mike
Wallace (2015 WR Rank - No.75, 4.0 FPts/G)
Miscast in dink and dunk offenses in Miami and Minnesota, Wallace
seems like the ideal lid lifting option for Flacco and the Ravens.
Never a heavy reception guy (73 receptions is his career high),
Wallace is your prototypical boom or bust player. He only has
one 100-yard game over the last two years, and found the end zone
only twice during his cup of coffee with Minnesota. He should
be a more efficient player for the Ravens, but he simply isn’t
going to get the ball enough to have much fantasy appeal.
Perriman has yet to play a snap of any relevance since he was
drafted in the firstround of the 2015 NFL draft. A strained ligament
in his knee was a reoccurring saga last offseason, that eventually
led to surgery costing him the entire year. During OTAs this spring
Perriman suffered what was initially ruled a partially torn ACL,
but later downgraded. Even though it wasn’t as serious,
it still looks like he will miss the majority of camp. He possesses
the talent and athleticism to have an impact on the field whenever
he gets on it, but for now fantasy owners are skittish about his
prospects and rightfully so. He’s nothing more than an in-season
waiver add.
As expected, a 35-year old blocking specialist on his third NFL
team, who only managed 39 catches TOTAL in his two previous seasons
would go out in 2015 and rack up 74-825-6 line to finish as a
top-10 tight end. Sarcasm aside, Watson parlayed his career year
into two-year, $7 million deal with the Ravens. Stepping into
the starting line-up ahead of youngsters Crocket Gillmore and
Maxx Williams, Watson should see a fair share of looks in an offense
that lacks definitive playmakers out wide, and a coach and QB
who favor tight ends. With Gillmore and Williams still around,
and Dennis Pitta fighting back from multiple hip injuries, it
will be nearly impossible for Watson to repeat his 74 receptions,
and top-10 finish. Look for Watson to be more of a TE2 this year,
and someone I would easily bypass for a player with more potential
upside.
