The Vikings came off a snake-bitten 2016 season to have one of
the most magical runs in history last year. Despite losing their
starting quarterback and running back to season ending injuries
early on, the Vikings held it together largely behind the play
of an aggressive defense and their journeyman quarterback Case
Keenum. While the defense returns largely intact, the Vikings
made the splash of the offseason, replacing Keenum with Kirk Cousins.
While Keenum's success was an absolute shock, Cousins has racked
up the statistics the past several years. The last three seasons
has seen Cousins finish as the No.9, No.5, and No.4 overall fantasy
quarterback. He’s gone over 4,000 yards three straight years,
and has tossed 25+ touchdowns in those seasons as well. Now these
prolific numbers haven’t exactly translated into wins for
his teams, but the former Redskin has become the poster child
for the strategy of taking a quarterback late in your draft.
So can Kirk continue to churn out the fantasy numbers as he moves
to a more talented, established team? My gut tells me no. For
years the Redskins failed miserably to build a reliable defense
or running game around Cousins, and he racked up a ton of garbage
time statistics trying to win shootouts or salvage respect in
blowout losses. The Vikings will likely be favored in most of
their games in 2018, and still want to win with defense and their
running game. Say what you will about the wins and losses, but
Jay Gruden can coach offense, and I think his scheme was very
friendly to Cousins. I expect a statistical regression across
the board, especially in attempts and touchdowns, but because
of the talent he’s throwing and handing off to, Kirk should
still remain a good bet to finish as a QB1, just one that lands
toward the end of the pack rather than in the middle.
The sample size was small, but Dalvin Cook showed flashes of
special ability during his first year with the Vikings until a
torn ACL ended his season. His 14.1 fantasy points-per-game were
good enough to put him in the top-10 at his position had he stayed
healthy and consistent. In his wake Latavius Murray picked up
the slack on the ground, punching it into the endzone 8 times
and rushing for 800+ yards. Oddly enough it was Murray’s slow
return from ankle surgery that gave Cook the chance to shine early
in the year. Although there isn’t quite a similar parallel this
season, (as Cook has the clear talent edge over Murray), drafting
Cook as your RB1 is going to come with plenty of risk.
Sure Cook did show dual threat capability in the four games he
played, catching 11 passes of almost 100 yards, but knee injuries
are always scary despite modern medicine, and one of Cook’s
red flags coming out of college was the injury prone label. Thankfully
his rehab has gone great, and he was cleared for team drills in
early June. If he gets the full go at the start of camp and doesn’t
suffer setbacks, I’d be comfortable leaning on Cook as an
RB1 in both standard and PPR leagues as he’s going to catch
a ton of passes with Jerick McKinnon’s 51 receptions gone
to San Francisco and Murray providing no threat in that area.
In the offseason of the 2017 season, the Vikings threw cash at
Murray hoping he could be the lead back in the offense. But shortly
after signing he underwent ankle surgery, and because he was slow
to recover, it looked like rookie sensation Dalvin Cook would
relegate Murray to being “just another guy” on the
team. Eventually Murray got healthy, Cook went down, and the Vikings
were forced to lean on their free agent. And lean they did. Murray
averaged over 14 attempts per game during his starts, with the
team going an impressive 11-0 when he carried the ball at least
15 times. Sure, he mostly got only what was blocked, as evidenced
by his 3.9 yards per carry average, but he scored 8 touchdowns
and was well worth the offseason investment.
Unfortunately for Murray’s fantasy value, the Vikings clearly
view him as a backup, as the two sides reached a restructured
contract agreement in the offseason, lowering his salary. Because
he provides little in the passing game (15 receptions last year),
Murray is merely a handcuff for Dalvin Cook owners and would only
have fantasy value should Cook go down again with an injury.
The Yin to Adam Thielen’s Yang, Stefon Diggs was a tale of peaks
and valleys during the 2017 season. He began the season looking
like a bonafide #1 fantasy receiver with a 22-391-4 line over
the first four games. He seemed to mesh very well with newly installed
starter Case Keenum, but a 7-week stretch followed the hot start
that saw Diggs only snag one more touchdown and fail to register
80 yards. A 3-game touchdown streak salvaged some value in the
fantasy playoffs, but as a whole he was down a significant amount
of receptions from 2016.
Diggs’s 8 touchdowns last season (in only 14 games) were
more than he combined in his previous two seasons, and I expect
there to be a natural regression in 2018. He’ll be breaking
in yet another new quarterback this season in Kirk Cousins, whose
deep ball skill-set actually matches well with Diggs. I just think
too much of this passing game funnels through Thielen, as the
offensive scheme won’t change much even with a new signal
caller at the helm. His role in the offense means he’s going
to be inconsistent on a weekly basis, as he’ll mix WR1 weeks
with WR4 weeks. Let’s split the difference and say with
a slight regression in touchdowns and a slight increase in yards
and receptions, Diggs comes in at a low-end WR2.
WR Adam
Thielen (2017 WR Rank – No.10, 9.6 FPts/G)
I really whiffed on my preview of Thielen last off-season. Not
many people, including myself, expected him to repeat the breakout
he had in 2016. And to be fair, he didn’t repeat it at all,
he shattered it! His targets, receptions and yards were way up,
and while his touchdown totals remain pretty flat for a team’s
#1 receiver, there’s no doubt it’s time to take Thielen
seriously as a yearly WR1. His 143 targets were tied with A.J.
Green for 9th in the NFL and his 1,200 yards were good for 5th
overall. He displayed a cool chemistry with Keenum and should
make sweet music with Kirk Cousins, who possesses better ball
placement and arm strength. Thielen wins with elite hands and
body control, and is a master route runner. His high reception
totals mean he’ll give you weekly consistency, especially
in PPR leagues. They didn’t give Cousins all that money
to mothball this offense, so I can’t see why there aren’t
at least 130 targets that go Thielen’s way this season.
The low touchdown totals are going to keep his value muted in
standard leagues, but he should again provide one of the biggest
receiver bargains in fantasy football as a low end WR1 you can
snag after all the other big names dry up.
Because of improved line play and more consistent running game,
Rudolph was a much smaller part of the passing offense in 2017.
He remained strong in the scoring department with 8 TDs, but precipitous
drops in receptions and yardage fueled his dip in the fantasy
standings amongst tight ends.
The whole position itself has taken a weird turn in recent years,
being incredibly touchdown dependent. It’s also been very
top heavy, with the top 3 or 4 tight ends really being head and
shoulders above the rest. In this offense Rudolph is the third
look, as most of his chances come within 20 yards. He makes his
money with solid underneath routes and dominance in the red zone,
and does have a new quarterback that loved to utilize the tight
end. He’ll probably be good for another 50+ catches for
500+ yards and half a dozen touchdowns, unexciting numbers, but
par for the course at this position. There’s nothing wrong
with selecting Rudolph as your TE1, but he’s the kind of
pick in the draft that you let come to you.
