The saying in pro sports is that availability is the best ability.
But when is that only a half truth? When you play a full season
on a mysteriously damaged knee, that's when. Although Aaron Rodgers
finished as a QB1, had an absurd 25-2 touchdown-to-interception
ratio, and once again threw for over 4,400 yards, he failed to finish
in the top-5 among fantasy quarterbacks. 2018 was the first time
that’s happened in a 16-game season since his first time as
a full-time starter in 2008.
Clearly the knee injury suffered in Week 1 affected Rodgers the
entire season. He struggled to avoid the rush, wasn’t nearly
as dangerous with his legs and lacked the normal touch his passes
typically have. Add in the fact that he was breaking in a host
of young, unfamiliar receivers behind Davante Adams, and there
you have the reason the Packers only reached 30 points four times
last season.
There are some fairly significant coaching changes coming for Rodgers
in 2019. For the first time since he became Green Bay’s full-time
starter in 2008, Mike McCarthy won’t be the head coach voice
in the headset. In comes fairly green Matt LaFleur who is yet another
branch of the Sean McVay coaching tree, but is only a few years
older than Rodgers. While LaFleur has worked alongside some of the
league’s most impressive offensive minds, he failed to really
maximize the talent he had in Tennessee last year as the offensive
coordinator. Rodgers had a rocky ending to his relationship with
McCarthy, and it remains to be seen how he’ll react to the
change.
For all the changes going on in Green Bay from the roster and front
office, to the coaching staff, Rodgers’ fantasy value will as usual,
come down to his health. Significant injuries to his calf, shoulder,
and knee in recent seasons have been his downfall, and he left his
final game of 2018 with a fairly significant concussion. He’s in
his mid-30s, but is still one of the best players in the NFL. If
the talent around him can continue to develop, he’s as good of a
bet as any to finish as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks.
Jones, the former 5th round pick from Texas Tech has simply been
one of the most explosive running backs in the league the last two
years. He’s averaged 5.5 yards-per-carry in his two seasons,
leading all running backs in the NFL last year in that category.
With speed to burn, and a year of development behind him, Jones
ascended to the lead back role with the Packers last season, even
showing up more as a receiver as the season wore on. Now more than
ever Green Bay realizes that Jones gives the offense a dimension
in the running game that must be respected, and with Matt LaFleur
already talking about getting his running backs more involved in
the passing game (something Mike McCarthy flat out failed to do),
Jones might be ready to ascend into a higher tier of fantasy back.
Jones led the team in rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns last
season, finally getting some distance on fellow back Jamaal Williams,
but there remain some roadblocks to Jones becoming fantasy football’s
next big thing. The first, is durability. Remember, you can’t
score from the trainer’s room, and Jones has had his fair
share of lower leg injuries the first few years in the league.
Hamstring and knee injuries cost him 4 games last year, and with
such a reliance on speed and quick twitch muscles, soft tissue
injuries are a major concern. As a side note, word is he’s
gotten in much better shape this offseason. Second, is the presence
of Williams. Williams isn’t going anywhere, and will likely
command more work than typical back-ups. LaFleur used both Derrick
Henry and Dion Lewis often last year, (at least until Henry went
on a ridiculous tear in the last month of the season) and ran
the ball 51% of the time. Jones doesn’t quite have the frame
to hold up to 200 carries, so Williams will be involved.
The bottom line here is that Jones is dripping with talent and upside.
He’ll never see 8-man fronts, and has a coach that uses a
zone run scheme that fits his talents perfectly. With an uptick
in receptions, and better health and stamina, Jones has a shot to
get into RB1 territory, which would be a steal at his current ADP.
The pecking order in this backfield became clear last season,
as Williams was jumped by Aaron Jones. Less talented and explosive,
Williams serves as a quality back-up who can handle all phases of
the offense, but just doesn’t do much that jumps off the screen.
Although underutilized by Mike McCarthy during his coaching tenure,
the running game figures to be a bigger part of the 2019 Packer
game plan and Williams could benefit. While nearly invisible when
Jones was healthy last year, look for Williams to soak up about
10-12 touches a game, with a chance at goal line work. It won’t
be nearly enough work for standalone value, but you wouldn’t
be wasting a roster spot on your team if you grabbed him as a handcuff
to Jones. With late round picks or undrafted free agents behind
him, Williams has a lock on back-up duty, but is someone who could
give fringe RB2 value if thrust into the starting lineup because
of injury.
Welcome to the rarified air of elite fantasy receivers Davante
Adams! His ascension to stardom was easy to see coming, as it’s
been building for several seasons. Despite being on a struggling
offense that had a gimpy quarterback, Adams was No.2 in the NFL
with 169 targets, 5th in receptions, 7th in yards, and 2nd in touchdowns
with 13.
A true complete fantasy receiver, Adams enters the prime of his
career as the apple of Rodgers’ eye and the clear alpha in
a fresh, modern offensive passing scheme. With the improved development
of the young receivers around him, and a more emphasis on the run
game, duplicating the 169 targets and 13 touchdowns is going to
be a challenge, but with Rodgers healthier the two should be even
more deadly and efficient. Hopkins, Julio Jones and Adams should
be vying for the top fantasy finishes at this position, so don’t
hesitate to grab the budding star.
Every Batman needs a sidekick, so can Valdes-Scantling be Robin
for Devante Adams? If last year’s rookie numbers are any
indication, this could be the next great Green Bay dynamic duo.
A raw 5th round rookie from South Florida, MVS has speed to burn,
and uncoachable height. With the departure of Jordy Nelson, the
decline of Randall Cobb, and injury to Geronimo Allison, Valdes-Scantling
was probably thrust into a bigger role than the Packers expected,
but he responded positively, playing in all 16 games and putting
up a solid 38-581-2 line on 73 targets. Sure, the near 50% catch
rate isn’t ideal, but Valdes-Scantling certainly flashed in
a mid-season 4-game stretch that saw him go over 60 yards three
times, hit the century mark twice, and score two touchdowns. He
faded a little down the stretch before a decent finish, but all-in-all
in was an impressive rookie season.
With another year under his belt, and the continued development
with Rodgers, MVS has a chance to be a much bigger fantasy player
in 2019. With the No.2 outside receiver position his to lose opposite
Adams, he should see plenty of single coverage. If he can learn
to play to his strengths and build on his route tree, Valdes-Scantling
is worth significant draft capital. He’s got great upside
in an offense run by Rodgers, and should approach WR3 numbers,
with a chance to have some big weeks. With a strong camp his ADP
should rise into the single digits.
A horrifically sounding injury (just google torn abductor muscle...ouch!)
cost Allison half of his season last year, and it’s a true
shame, as he opened the season on a tear, with 19 receptions almost
300 yards and two touchdowns over the first two weeks. His 8.5 standard
points per game over a full season would have made him a solid WR3.
But while 2018 was mostly a lost season, the 4th year player is
a great bet to set career highs across the board if he can stay
healthy.
Taking on the slot role from the departed Cobb, Allison has a
chance to carve out a significant role in this passing game. It’s
tough to gauge just how LaFleur’s offense will utilize the
slot, as the Titan passing game was mostly a sloppy mess last
year, but the Rams find ways to exploit matchups to get all their
receivers involved. Early off-season reports have been glowing
for Allison and his cohorts, and I have a feeling that this whole
passing offense will see a big rebound. With Rodgers healthy,
and the young guys developing, pay close attention to Allison’s
role in the preseason. If this offense clicks like I think it
might, and with his ADP currently higher than Valdes-Scantling,
Allison could be a worthy bench add, especially in PPR leagues
Even at a fantasy position as shallow as tight end, Graham was
a pretty big stinker during his first season in Green Bay. Even
with yet another HOF quarterback throwing him the ball, Graham looked
old and slow. Age and injuries seemed to sap him of any explosion
he had, and he even had difficulty finding the endzone with only
two scores.
Typically a dominant red zone target in his career, I have to
believe that there is some positive touchdown regression on the
way in 2019. The days of dominant reception and yardage totals,
and chunk plays are gone though, and the Packers know it as they
drafted Texas A&M Jace Sternberger with a 3rd round pick.
Sternberger was drafted to catch passes, and he’ll do more
of it if Graham fails to be an impact player in the offense. With
a young buck nipping at his heels, this might be Graham’s
last chance. In a weak fantasy position he’s worth a look
as a fringe TE1.
