After years of making a fantasy living off of high passing volume,
Cousins' numbers plummeted across the board last year as the Vikings
committed to running the ball more and Adam Thielen missed six games
with a hamstring injury. His attempts, yardage and touchdown totals
were the fewest since he became a full-time starter in 2015.
A clear QB2 for most of the year last year, the bottom really
fell out for Cousins from Week 14 on. He barely scraped together
double digit points, and in a loss to the 49ers in the Divisional
Round he could barely complete a pass past the line of scrimmage,
rolling up a sad 6-yards-per-attempt. So while the lower passing
numbers got the Vikings to the second round of the playoffs, they
still fell short of a conference final, and Kirk’s fantasy
value went into the toilet. Can we expect a repeat or rebound
in 2020?
This funky offseason should be manageable for the Viking offense.
NFL lifer Gary Kubiak enters his 25th season in the League, and
was the Minnesota Assistant Head Coach and Offensive Advisor last
season so you know he had a big hand in crafting the offense. Now
built around the legs of Dalvin Cook (more on him later), Cousins
and the Vikings do have a gaping hole at receiver with Pro Bowler
Stefon Diggs shipped off to Buffalo and replaced by rookie Justin
Jefferson. How quickly Cousins and Jefferson can develop chemistry
with little work prior to training camp will be big. Diggs was a
deep home run threat, while Jefferson is more of a surgical slot
receiver, so Cousins is sure to miss the nearly 18 yards per reception
Diggs gave him last year. Another factor throwing a wrench into
any analysis for Cousins in the status of Dalvin Cook. Currently
threatening a hold-out unless he gets a new deal, the entire offense
gets a downgrade if he misses games.
There are simply too many moving parts for me to trust Cousins as
a QB1 this year. With Diggs and former coordinator Kevin Stefanski
both gone, and a rookie being counted on for a big role, it’s
hard for me to envision Cousins greatly surpassing his 2019 numbers.
Short of Cook holding out for the season, or injuries ravaging the
backs, I think 450 passing attempts is right where Head Coach Mike
Zimmer wants to be.
Seeing Cook’s breakout 2019 coming was truly one of the
easiest fantasy calls in a long time. With the holy fantasy trinity
of elite talent, workhorse role, and relative health, Cooks dazzled
for much of the season, finishing in the top-10 in every relevant
statistical category for running backs. He and Christian McCaffery
were the only backs in the NFL to tally 1,100+ yards rushing,
500+ yards receiving and score double digit touchdowns. Incredibly
consistent, Cook tallied all of his stats without ever having
a 30-point standard league game!
Sure the season ending loss to the 49ers was an unmitigated disaster
(26 total yards on 17 touches) and he still has to work with a
below average line, but Cook is easily in the top-5 conversation
again this year. I can’t play what-if games with his contract,
so let’s assume that works itself out. Kubiak has stated
this week that he isn’t concerned with any time Cook might
miss because he knows the system so well. With the offense breaking
in a rookie receiver, there is room for those 303 touches from
last season to rise. As one of the very few three-down workhorse
backs in the NFL whose talent justifies it, there aren’t
many fantasy picks better at the position.
While he was never called on for more than mop-up or breather
duty, Mattison did well to live up to the hype he got last offseason.
The former 3rd round pick put together a strong 4.6 yards-per-carry
average on his 100 attempts, and showed he’s more than capable
of filling in if Cook’s threat to hold-out comes to fruition.
Mattison is one of the few MUST HAVE handcuffs in fantasy, both
because he’s actually got starting caliber talent, and he’ll likely
get a largely undisputed role if Cook isn’t playing. There is
always that one owner who likes to grab back-up runners with upside,
so if you own Cook be prepared to pay a draft premium for peace
of mind.
WR Adam Thielen
(2019 WR Rank – No.55, 8.4 FPts/G)
He was already going to have a tough time duplicating his historic
2018 season, so being a victim of a more run oriented offense
in the first half of the season, then playing at less than 100%
during the second half and missing 6 total games was too much
to overcome, in what was largely a disappointing fantasy run in
2019.
Sure, there were flashes of the possibilities in Week 5 and the
Wild Card round, but everything in between was a mess. In the
other 10 games he did play in, Thielen went over 60 yards only
once, actually had three games where he failed to reach a full
point in standard scoring leagues. But an extremely down year
could be a blessing in disguise for a player who had been one
of the best values in fantasy football before last year.
With the departure of Diggs, Thielen instantly becomes the unquestioned
WR1 for the Vikings. With a likely kick to the outside to let
Jefferson take over the slot, Thielen should run more of the downfield
routes in the offense, leading to more big plays. One positive
takeaway from last season was the 6 touchdowns he managed to score
in 10 games, meaning double digit scores this season are a decent
bet. The passing volume in the offense is unlikely to return to
pre-2019 form, so hoping Thielen sees 150+ targets is probably
a pipe dream, but the departure of Diggs does leave 94 unaccounted
for targets. He should be a back-end WR1 in PPR and standard scoring
leagues that you can get value on.
With a high football IQ, experience in a pro system, and elite
physical fights, Justin Jefferson was a dynamic force from the
slot last season at LSU. Widely considered the best slot receiver
in the draft, I would argue that Jefferson has a chance to be
the most consistent fantasy receiver out of this year’s
rookie class. His ability to make contested catches, and his 4.4
speed mean the Vikings can use him and Adam Thielen all around
the formation, and with little impact talent behind him on the
depth chart, Jefferson is going to get plenty of chances to show
his stuff. Although rookie receivers typically have a hard time
adjusting to the speed and complexity of NFL defenses, four rookies
(Metcalf, McLaurin, Samuel, and A.J. Brown) last season were fantasy
difference makers right off the bat. I think 50 catches 600 yards
and a few scores is the absolute floor for Jefferson this season.
Being picked near the overall WR60 in early drafts, I think he
has a chance to finish higher than that come season’s end,
and will be a serviceable WR3 on many teams come mid-season. He’s
got talent, opportunity, and a better than average quarterback,
three things the other higher profile 1st round receivers can’t
all claim.
TE Kyle Rudolph
(2019 TE Rank - No.15, 4.8 FPts/G)
Largely a “start and hope for a touchdown” fantasy
play in 2019, Rudolph’s reception and yardage numbers took
a nosedive along with the Vikings’ passing volume. Entering
his 10th year in the league, Rudolph provides the offense with
a strong blocker, or solid red zone target, but zero playmaking
ability or explosion. Look for last year's 2nd rounder, Irv Smith,
to take over more of the receiving work from the tight end position.
Raw and in his rookie year, Smith still had only 1 fewer target
than Rudolph and flashed at times. As long as Rudolph is around,
Smith’s upside is capped, but with 94 targets left behind
from Diggs, Smith is sure to claim some of that pie and see an
uptick in opportunity. All things considered, if you are going
the streaming route, or drafting for TE2 potential, roll with
the guy with the higher ceiling, and for me, that’s Irv
Smith.
