What do you get when you mix a historic rookie receiver with
the 29th ranked defense? You get Kirk Cousins having one of the
best statistical seasons of his career and a top-12 finish at
an extremely deep fantasy position, that’s what!
With little defense to speak of and rookie Justin Jefferson putting
up all-time numbers for a 1st year player, Cousins and this offense
were forced into a fair share of shootouts. Just look at how bad
it got during the 2nd half of the year, where in the final eight
games Cousins was forced to throw a ton, securing 20 touchdown
passes and throwing for over 2,400 yards. The 7-9 Vikings finished
out of the playoffs largely because of a porous defense. Very
reminiscent of the early parts of his career when he was mainly
a stat compiler, what can we expect from Cousins in 2021?
I still believe that head coach Mike Zimmer wants this to be a
tough, run-based offense as evidenced at the start of last year
when Cousins failed to reach 30 pass attempts in any of the first
four games. The problem? The Vikings went 1-3, and eventually
the defense broke down so much, that Cousins only had two more
games over the final twelve where his attempts were in the 20’s.
Say what you will about Zimmer’s philosophy, but he’s going to
get his way with the promotion of 33-year old Klint Kubiak to
offensive coordinator. The son of former OC Gary Kubiak, Klint
is far more experienced than most 33-year old coaches, but has
seen scant duty as a play caller, and it remains to be seen how
much power he will have to paint outside the lines of his father’s
offense. The other variable is the defense. If Zimmer wants a
run-based attack, he’s going to need gigantic improvement from
the defense, but I’m not sure the improvements to the D-line (Dalvin
Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, and the return of Danielle Hunter)
will be enough to fix a leaky secondary that really only added
an aging Patrick Peterson. In the end, this offense will likely
need and should pass more than Zimmer wants, and because of the
elite tools at his disposal, Cousins has a shot to return QB1
value as low-investment.
A big write-up here isn’t necessary, as if you’ve been a part
of fantasy football in the last few years Cook is a name you’ve
heard plenty. Coming off two straight top-5 seasons, Cook is the
prototype elite fantasy back. Explosive from anywhere on the field,
dynamic in both the run and passing game, and an absolute ball
hog, Cook is that consistent backfield asset every winning fantasy
team needs to have. While Cook is a monster in any format due
to his ability to score (31 total touchdowns the last two years)
and catch passes (97 receptions the last two years) he has been
a bit injury prone, which is a much bigger concern as we enter
into a 17-week regular season. Something I feel is being overlooked
this fantasy offseason is the effect a 17-week season will have
on running back load management. For a team like the Vikings,
who are truly playoffs or bust, keeping Cook fresh down the stretch
is vitally important. Now more than ever, fantasy teams are going
to NEED quality handcuffs (more on Alexander Mattison in a second).
Look for a bit of regression in Cook's overall numbers, but certainly
not enough to remove him from top-3 consideration. Just be SURE
you grab the next guy in this preview!
Alexander Mattison is one of the most significant running back
handcuffs in fantasy football. Yes, he will sit and rot on your
bench while Cook takes 80% of the running back touches, but when
Cook gets dinged up, as he’s been known to do, Mattison
can step in and give you a chunk of that production back. Annually
one of the most hyped back-ups in the NFL due to his talent and
role when forced into starter’s snaps, Mattison is a must
have for Cook owners, especially in this lengthened season.
WR Adam Thielen
(2020 WR Rank – No.8, 11.9 FPts/G)
About to be on the north side of 30, Thielen seemed to be supplanted
as the team’s No.1 option last year by a fella named Justin Jefferson.
Thielen, who was coming off an injury marred 2019, was just 24th
among receivers in receptions and yardage. So what carried him
to a top-10 finish at the position? A career high 14 touchdowns,
something that is nearly impossible to duplicate or count on for
2021. Touchdown scoring is always a fickle stat in fantasy, so
for receivers, it comes down to targets and receptions, and expect
those numbers to rebound some for Thielen. I expect defenses to
shift their gaze to Jefferson a bit more this year, and that should
open up Thielen for more looks than he’s seen in a few years.
Sure, he’s lost a bit of that downfield explosion, but his elite
body control, hands, and rapport with Cousins in the redzone is
more than enough to make him a WR1 standard league candidate in
an offense with diverse threats.
Normally, rookies in the NFL slowly “move on up” as their career
develops, but this Mr. Jefferson seems to have started his career
in that “deluxe apartment in the sky”, so what could he possibly
do as a follow-up to his historic rookie season? (props to you
if you are old enough to get the references, apologies if you
aren’t!) Slaying Anquan Boldin’s 16-year old record, and evoking
memories of Randy Moss debut season with the Vikes, Jefferson
was nearly unstoppable after his 7-175-1 outburst in Week 3. Tagged
by many as the most NFL ready receiver coming into the 2020 draft,
Jefferson by most metrics, was one of the best receivers in the
league. He could get down the field deep (13th in average depth
per target), make plays after the catch (14th in yards-after-catch)
and score touchdowns (7). An expert route runner capable of the
full route tree, Jefferson can, and will be a match-up nightmare
in 2021. With a likely regression in receiving yards, the former
LSU Tiger should be able to make that up with more receptions
and an uptick in touchdowns. Baring a true catastrophe, I can’t
envision a scenario where Jefferson isn’t a WR1 in all formats.
With plodding Kyle Rudolph finally gone, according to new offensive
coordinator Klint Kubiak, Smith is “going to have more opportunities”
to make plays in the offense. But ask his boss Mike Zimmer, and
things sound different. ““Honestly I don’t think
it’s a bigger role for him whatsoever - I think it’s
a bigger role for Tyler Conklin. He’s kind of emerged as
a guy moving upward.” So what gives? In a game of “Will
he or won’t he”, fantasy owners are left to wonder
just where Smith fits into their plans in 2021. Despite an abundance
of athletic talent, Smith was never able to overcome Rudolph as
the main starter, and on a team like the Vikings that run nearly
half their offense from the two tight ends, or “12”
personnel, this position has fantasy relevance. Part of Zimmer
throwing cold water on Smith's chances is the fact the 3rd year
pro isn’t a fundamentally sound blocker, something this
offense needs in the run game. But you don’t score fantasy
points with blocks, and what both coaches have said might be true.
I can see a scenario where Smith gets a bunch more looks in the
passing game and becomes the teams #3 receiver, and Conklin gets
a snap share as the primary blocking tight end. With so many young,
athletic guys at the position, Smith is still someone I’m
willing to gamble on later in the draft, as he has a shot to be
in the mix as an upside fantasy starter if the Vikes have to throw
a ton.
