The previous regime in Chicago couldn’t seem to get out of its
own way. Ex-head man Matt Nagy failed to build anything on offense
despite having two top-11 drafted signal callers to work with,
and ex-GM Ryan Pace missed on free agents and draft picks way
too often. Left in the wreckage of the past several seasons is
Justin Fields, the 2nd year quarterback out of Ohio State who
struggled mightily in his rookie year. With few weapons to throw
to, and a scheme that almost ran counter to his strengths, Bears
fans are left to wonder if his career can be salvaged.
After sitting Weeks 1 and 2, Fields got his first NFL start
in Week 3 against the Browns, and put up one of the worst debuts
in NFL history. He looked unprepared and outmatched, getting sacked
9 times, and completing only 30% of his passes for a sad 68 yards
in a 26-6 loss. The utter and continued failure by the coaching
staff to put Fields in advantageous positions was the true crime.
Chicago ran only 24 run/pass option plays the entire year, while
teams that had quarterbacks with similar athletic profiles ran
upwards of 100. The numbers are equally embarrassing for play
action passes. There were some highlights in the 2nd half of the
season that flashed his potential, but Fields’s rookie season
was largely a wash. New Head Coach Matt Eberflus, and offensive
coordinator Luke Getsy are now tasked with his development. Fields
is going to have to find a way to grow on a depleted roster in
transition. Speedster Darnell Mooney returns as the top receiver,
but after that it’s tight end Cole Kemet, a mish-mosh of fringe
NFL-level talent, and 3rd round pick Velus Jones Jr.
As the unquestioned starter, and face of the franchise, I have
to think Eberflus and Getsy will do everything in their power
to help Fields succeed. I expect more pocket movement to help
ease the pressure on the o-line and let the mobile QB be a threat
with his legs. Without a lame duck coaching staff and front office,
I think Chicago has a chance to settle down and be better. That
doesn’t mean they are going to be good, and Fields simply
doesn't have the receivers or experience to be trusted in fantasy,
but I can envision a world where he makes a spot start or two
for a needy fantasy squad during the season and you wouldn’t
feel gross having to do it.
A bright spot in an otherwise dreary season for Chicago, Montgomery
would likely have had a career year if not for a four–game
absence due to a knee injury. Before getting hurt in Week 4, Montgomery
already had two 100+ yard games, and 3 touchdowns. While his rushing
numbers sunk down the stretch, rookie quarterback Justin Fields
peppered him with targets. Buoyed by the 10th most touches in
the NFL, Montgomery was a solid RB2 option for 2021.
So, what can we expect in 2022 for the 4th-year back? Well for
starters, he is one of the few three-down workhorse backs in the
NFL, with only 6th round pick Khalil Herbert behind him. Although
he desperately needs Fields to progress to truly move beyond a
mid-tier RB2, Montgomery will get enough volume to remain in the
fantasy starter conversation. His overall numbers are capped by
a lack of efficiency, and likely growing pains of the offense.
There is also a chance the new administration gives a longer,
more consistent look at Herbert as a cheaper, long-term option.
With a chance to set a career high in receptions, I do like Montgomery
a round or two more in PPR than I do in standard leagues.
The 6th round rookie came out of nowhere while filling in for
Montgomery during his four-game absence. Herbert tallied 344 yards
(80% of his season total) over that span, displaying a burst and
wiggle (4.5 yards per carry) the offense doesn’t always
get with Montgomery. Unfortunately for Chicago and his fantasy
owners, the coaching staff totally ignored Herbert once Montgomery
returned, so we didn’t get to see if those four games were
a fluke, or a sign of possibility. The Bears didn’t add
significantly to the position in 2022, so I have to believe they
trust Montgomery to lead the way, but it also could signal that
Herbert could get a longer look than he did in 2021. He doesn’t
pop athletically, but he’s got great vision and is a decisive
runner. If he’s improved as a pass blocker, I expect him
to see the field more, and make for a passable starter if Montgomery
gets hurt again.
Mooney, the 2020 5th round pick out of Tulane followed up a solid
rookie year (61-631-4) with an at times dominant 2021, finishing
with a 81-1,055-4 line for a Chicago offense that sunk to 30th
in the NFL with only 3,207 yards in the air. What impressed me
most about what Mooney did last season; was the fact it was out
from under Allen Robinson’s shadow. During his rookie season
he had the benefit of nearly zero defensive attention, but last
season most defenses realized that Robinson was a shell of his
former self, and that Mooney was the real threat. Despite the
added attention, and a struggling rookie quarterback, Mooney was
money at times last season.
How do things change in 2022? Well, Mooney is now the unquestioned
alpha in the receiver room, with only a rookie, and Byron Pringle
to compete with. What makes Mooney a big threat (blazing speed)
is also offset by limits to his consistency and touchdown scoring
(size, bad team). So, while he’s likely to reach and exceed
his 2021 numbers, there will be some bouts of inconsistency (he
did have six games with less than 4 standard points) baked into
his value. I would be thrilled if I could get Mooney as a WR3.
At that spot he can win you a week or two, and you can live with
a few duds.
After solidifying their defensive backfield with their first
two draft picks, Chicago invested a 3rd round pick in Velus Jones
Jr. out of Tennessee. A dynamic special teams player with blazing
speed (4.31 in the 40), Jones Jr. is a raw receiver despite several
years of collegiate experience. Only in his final year with the
Vols did he really pop as a receiver, showing enough for Chicago
to add him to the mix. With the Bears, he has a real chance to
make a mark with only a few cast-offs as roadblocks to playing
time. Offseason reports sound great (as they usually do), with
Jones Jr. making an impression on Mooney and building chemistry
with Fields. Look for the Bears to ease him in during the first
half of the year, using him on special teams, and a few deep shots
to keep defenses honest. If he can accelerate his development
as a receiver, and the offense can get behind Fields, Jones could
make some fantasy noise down the stretch. If you have large rosters
he might be worth a stash, and if you don’t, make him a
priority free agent.
Kmet made a significant leap in his 2nd year with the Bears.
His 93 targets were good for 8th in the NFL at the position, and
his 612 yards were good for 12th. So how the heck did he only
finish at fantasy’s 23rd tight end? ZERO touchdowns, that’s
how. Another indictment on how bad Nagy’s offense performed
last year was the fact a 6’6’’ 263-pound mountain
of a man couldn’t find a way to score a touchdown. Fields
had only 31 pass attempts in the redzone last season and threw
only 5 for touchdowns. Mike White of the Jets threw as many on
9 attempts! Clearly Kmet is due for some positive regression in
the touchdown department. Adding just 5 scores to his 2021 receiving
numbers would have made him a fringe TE1. If he can remain a big
part of the passing game, Kmet should push to be an acceptable
fantasy starter.
