The Vikings of the past two seasons have been near mirror images
of each other. Tantalizing talented, and just inconsistent enough
to not get into the playoffs. Because of an underachieving defense,
and a prehistoric offensive scheme despite dynamic talent, Mike
Zimmer and his coaching staff have been replaced with another
fruit plucked from the Sean McVay coaching tree, former Ram offensive
coordinator Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell has bounced
around the NFL as player and coach, but finally brings a brand
of football to Minnesota that fits their prolific offensive players.
Cousins' fantasy numbers didn’t exactly suffer under a run-first
coach, as the Viking defense was so bad, throwing the ball became
necessary for survival. Instead of throwing the ball around the
yard to play catch-up, look for this Vikings offense to attack
defenses with a scheme that isn’t shy about putting the ball in
their best player’s hands in a variety of ways. Much like the
Rams, I anticipate Cousins and the offense utilizing multiple
formations and sets to get the ball out quickly to their playmakers.
Passing to set up the run will open the offense, and allow more
room for Dalvin Cook to scamper around. While Cousins doesn’t
possess the pure arm talent that Matthew Stafford does, he was
in the top-10 in the NFL in pass attempts of 30+ yards last year,
so he’s got the moxie to go long. Along with his efficiency numbers,
I expect those deep shots to increase as well.
With a more modern scheme, Justin Jefferson in his 3rd season,
and NFC North that isn’t exactly stacked, Cousins has a realistic
shot at a top-5 season if Thielen comes back healthy, and the
young receivers develop. Either way, Kirk is a great value pick
on the fantasy quarterback carousel if you are looking to wait
on your signal caller.
It was always going to be a long shot for Cook to reproduce the
numbers of his monster 2020 season, but to call 2021 as anything
less than a disappointment would be folly. Missing four games
certainly didn’t help, but when he was healthy, he was all
but forgotten in the passing game (his 34 receptions were the
lowest since his rookie year) and he only found the endzone 6
times after finding paydirt 30 times over the 2019 and 2020 seasons
combined.
While his talent is unquestioned, and he suffered from a lack
of offensive innovation and consistency last year, the injuries
become a bigger and bigger caveat for the 26-year-old back. He’s
missed multiple games in every season in the NFL, with a shoulder
injury being the big culprit last season. While his peak seasons
may have passed, there is still plenty of RB1 value baked into
his game. The fresh scheme on offense should see him moved around
the formation more, and keep him out of stacked box situations.
If he can remain efficient on a floor of 250 carries and 50 receptions
he should be in the top-5 consideration at his position.
Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Alexander Mattison
is looking to prove once and for all that he deserves to be a
full-time starter in the NFL. Mattison has flashed and produced
as a bell-cow back every time he’s been asked to fill in
for Dalvin Cook over the last several years. He hit career highs
across the board in 2021, including 32 receptions which nearly
matched his 14-game starter teammate. Mattison and Tony Pollard
are likely the most vital handcuffs in fantasy, and Cook owners
must keep that in mind during the draft, as they will pay a premium
for a back-up that can replace almost all the production of a
starter.
If it wasn’t obvious before, it’s clear now, this
is Justin Jefferson’s team. Supplanting Thielen as the alpha
dog in the passing game, and bringing back memories of HOFer Randy
Moss’s early career production, Jefferson was nearly unstoppable
in his 2nd season. His 1,616 yards were the 2nd most in the NFL,
and just one of several ways he was able to improve upon a historic
rookie season. So, what can be possibly do in Year 3? For starters,
the offensive scheme should work wonders for Jefferson, as he’ll
serve in the Cooper Kupp role. He’s already been thrilled
with the modernization of the offense, even if he might see a
slightly diminished target share as a result. Hitting 108 receptions
and 1,600 yards is going to be an incredible stretch, but with
more efficiency and usage in the red zone, Jefferson could see
a spike in scoring chances. Either way, Jefferson is just one
of a few guys in play as the WR1 in all formats, and a locked
in 1st round pick.
WR Adam Thielen
(2021 WR Rank - No.27, 10.2 FPts/G)
While Jefferson garnered most of the headlines last season, and
a high ankle sprain cost him four games, Thielen still proved
to be a scoring maven, with another double-digit touchdown total
(10). Set to be 32 at the start of the season, Thielen’s
lack of big play ability led to a career low 10.8 yards per reception
last year. It will be interesting to see just how invested this
offensive scheme is in an aging player, while a few younger, more
dynamic receivers remain on the depth chart. With a bigger target
distribution, even 100 targets might be hard to reach. Thielen
has kept himself in the standard league WR2 conversation on the
back of 24 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Touchdowns are
notoriously hard to rely on, so a slip back to a more reasonable
WR3 standing is more likely.
For years the Vikings passing game revolved around Adam Thielen,
Stefon Diggs and then Justin Jefferson. The emergence of 2020
5th round pick K.J. Osborn has begun to change that dynamic, and
a fresh new offensive philosophy that includes more three-wide
sets, could open up much more opportunity for the 25-year-old
out of Miami. Osborn burst onto the scene last season with 12
receptions for 167 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota’s
first two games. As expected, the raw 5th rounder struggled at
times especially during the mid-part of the season, but he showed
enough improvement during his 50-655-7 season to be a big part
of the passing game in 2022. With little added to the receiver
room via draft or free agency, Osborn will be worthy of a roster
spot as WR4/FLEX, with upside for more as a handcuff to Jefferson
or Thielen.
In 2021 fantasy owners were excited to get a look at what the
ultra-athletic Irv Smith could do after finally being out of the
shadow of Kyle Rudolph. Well that all went up in smoke in the
final preseason game, as Smith suffered a knee injury that eventually
cost him the entire season. As he rolls it back in 2022, Smith
is expected to be a full go by training camp. Entering a contract
year, with a more dynamic passing game, a healthy Smith should
function as the 3rd receiver in this offense. More athletically
gifted than Tyler Higbee who saw 85 targets in a similar offense,
and Tyler Conklin who had 87 targets for Minnesota last year,
Smith could have a 60-catch floor which would put him in the upper
TE2 tier, with upside for more.
