For the first time in nearly 20 years the Pittsburgh Steelers
will be holding auditions for their starting quarterback. The
applicants? Mitchell Trubisky, who is now on his third team since
being drafted 10th overall in 2017 and hometown rookie Kenny Pickett,
the team’s 1st round pick this year. Early in the offseason
program it looks like Trubisky has the lead, but it’s anyone’s
guess how long the lead will last as we get deeper into the summer.
Trubisky’s back-up level salary, and the fact the Steelers
are very familiar with Pickett, mean they won’t be shy picking
the quarterback that truly gives them the best chance to win.
This is a franchise that hasn’t fully committed to a rebuild
very often in the last 50 years, so the best player is going to
start.
Fantasy wise, I’m taking a pass on both guys. Trubisky, the
former Bear might have had a few eye-popping games in 2018, by
far his best in the NFL, but that still barely got him in the
top-12 in fantasy points-per-game that season (22.7) and he’s
coming off a year in Buffalo where he only attempted 8 passes
as a little utilized backup. Pickett, if not the team’s present,
is certainly its future, and he’ll play as soon as the coaching
staff thinks he’s ready. Another of the recent “one-year wonder”
quarterbacks that have been drafted in the first round recently,
Pickett is likely a year away from entering fantasy relevance.
The battle, and eventual outcome will be much more impactful to
the Steelers and their skill position players than it will be
to your fantasy team.
The old fantasy running back adage that “volume is king”
certainly applied to Harris in 2021. The former Alabama runner
led the NFL in touches with 381, single-handedly keeping the Steeler
offense above water enough to sneak into the playoffs. A true
workhorse, Harris played in all 17 games and led the NFL by being
on the field for 85% of all the Steelers offensive snaps! It’s
not hyperbole to say he almost never came off the field, but this
does fit with the Pittsburgh philosophy for their backs going
back a few decades. With little on the roster behind him, and
an unsettled quarterback position, I don’t expect much to
change for Harris on the volume front. Let’s hope it doesn’t,
because it was volume, and not necessarily efficiency that helped
Harris to that top-5 finish. Among backs with 200+ carries, Harris’s
3.9 yards-per-carry average was 21st in the NFL, and despite the
74 receptions, Harris had only one game with more than 50 yards
receiving. With the highest touch floor among any back in the
league, and a high pick regardless of league scoring, the only
question for Harris is how long he can sustain this touch count
without breaking down.
After being a 4th round pick in 2019, Snell has been a bust.
He was only trusted with 36 carries last season, and mustered
a plodding 2.7 yards-per-carry average. In an effort to salvage
his career, and be the one to take some heat off of Harris, Snell
has lost some weight and tried to become quicker this offseason.
It remains to be seen if that will be enough to hold off some
hungry undrafted free agents the Steelers have signed, or a veteran
that gets added later. Short of an injury to Harris, Snell holds
zero stand-alone value, and at best, rates as an uninspiring handcuff.
By most metrics, Dionte Johnson was one of the best receivers
in the NFL last season. His 169 targets and 107 receptions both
placed him in the top-5, and his 1,161 yards were good for 9th.
He even capped his career year by cutting down on the “dropsies”
that had plagued his early career. Another middle-round receiver
gem the Steelers have uncovered; the ascending Johnson enters
the eve of a big free agency payday having to adjust to the first
non-Roethlisberger quarterback of his career. Johnson and Roethlisberger
were locked in last season, as the quick twitch receiver finished
6th in the NFL in yards-after-catch. Quarterback chemistry has
been a big part of Johnson’s career success, as Big Ben sat in
the pocket and delivered on-time, accurate throws. There is going
to be an adjustment period with Ben gone and Trubisky and Pickett
having different styles. If Claypool can rebound off a down year,
and 2nd round rookie George Pickens makes a quick adjustment,
the ball is sure to be spread a bit thinner this year. With enough
factors working against him, look for Johnson to fall back into
the upper-WR2 tier in 2022.
A large regression in touchdowns, combined with an increase of
injury and diva behavior, led to a 2nd year fantasy flop for Claypool.
After dazzling with 11 touchdowns in his rookie year, Claypool
couldn’t get out of his own way in 2021, clashing with teammates
and coaches, and displaying an immaturity that threatens to derail
a very promising career. Hidden in the murky waters of his season,
Claypool failed to significantly improve on his numbers, and the
lack of refinement to his game was evident. He was able to physically
dominate his rookie year, and when he couldn’t replicate
that in year 2, due to injury and defensive adjustment, he became
emotional, culminating in a play on national television that might
have cost his team a chance to win. Even with all that potential
baggage, and more offseason noise about how he feels he’s
a top-3 receiver in the NFL, Claypool does possess the physical
talents to dominate with a game very similar to Mike Evans. If
the loss of Roethlisberger and improvement in the offensive line
means the end of the dink and dunk passing game, then Claypool
has a chance to be a fantasy steal. But with the flux at quarterback,
and Johnson still on the team, Claypool might be a year away from
a true ascension. Until then, he can be a high upside WR3 in standard
leagues.
Considered a top receiver prospect after an electrifying freshman
year at Georgia, Pickens missed almost all of his junior year
to an ACL tear. That didn’t stop the Steelers from taking
a shot on him in the 2nd round in the hopes that he can be yet
another receiver they develop into a star. He’s certainly
got the measurables and athletic profile to succeed in the NFL,
but just how ready will he be after only 12 games played over
the last two seasons? Drawing comparisons to another Georgia alum,
A.J. Green, Pickens finds himself a bit buried on the target pecking
order for a Steeler offense that has lots of mouth to feed. Last
season the Steelers were one of only nine teams to pass the ball
600+ times, and with Roethlisberger gone, I find it very hard
to believe they throw it 600 times again. As he continues to work
back into shape, and learn the pro game, Pickens could be yet
another rookie receiver to keep an eye on during the 2nd half
of the fantasy season.
With the Eric Ebron era finally dashed in Pittsburgh, Freiermuth
had a chance to push back against the notion that rookie tight
ends can’t be trusted for fantasy production. On the back
of seven touchdowns, and the 12th most receptions among tight
ends, the former Nittany Lion solidified himself as a trusted
member of the Pittsburgh offense. The athletic 6’5’’,
260-pounder should still be a factor in the redzone and a safety
net for either quarterback. There is a bit of a scary injury history
to consider with Freiermuth, as he suffered two concussions during
his rookie year, but as a player you won’t have to reach
for in a muddled TE1/2 area, it shouldn’t be enough to dissuade
you.
