To say Joe Burrow has been a franchise altering player is an understatement.
In his first three years in the NFL he’s brought the Bengals to
two straight AFC championships, (and a Super Bowl), and after decades
of being an embarrassment, he’s got the Bengals in annual championship
contention. His rivalry with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen is verging
on the stuff of legend, and he’s got the scheme and receiving talent
to be a fantasy mainstay at the position for years to come.
Entering year four he has vaulted into the upper echelon of quarterbacks,
but is there really much more room to climb the fantasy rankings?
Despite rushing for ten touchdowns in his career, he has the lowest
rushing yardage floor of all the players ranked above him. While
there isn’t much room to grow there, his passing numbers do
have a shot to expand. The line improved slightly last year, giving
up seven fewer sacks than 2021. Cinci spent big on Orlando Brown
Jr. in free agency and the brutal state of their running game combined
with having Ja’Marr Chase for a full season, means Burrow
should continue the trend of setting career highs in pass attempts.
The bottom line here is that Joe Cool should be somewhere in that
top-5 mix at the end of the season, but he no longer comes at the
discounted price he may have once had.
After a brutally inefficient season last year, and an offseason
marred with off the field issues, finances and lack of veteran
depth are likely the only things keeping Mixon on this roster.
While the terrible o-line play does factor in, Mixon was one of
the least elusive runners in the NFL, rarely carving out his own
yards. His 29 carries inside the ten resulted in only six rushing
touchdowns, and only four of his whopping 210 carries went for
20 yards or more. What’s worse than the final numbers is the fact
former teammate Samaje Perine often was the preferred back in
certain situations, especially when it mattered most in the AFC
title game. The Bengals replaced Perine with only 5th round pick
Chase Brown who offers versatility, and great college production,
but will have to dazzle in the preseason to challenge Mixon’s
touch monopoly. That is, if Mixon is even on the team. Rumors
have swirled all offseason about reducing his salary, and the
market for backs has taken a tumble. Outside of 2021, Mixon just
hasn’t produced up to his pay, and remains a cut candidate. Not
exactly a ringing real life or fantasy endorsement. Even if he
remains on the roster, and retains a stranglehold on touches,
I’ve seen enough to avoid Mixon’s limited ceiling.
Should the Bengals part ways with Mixon before the start of camp,
would they entertain inserting Brown as the starter? He’s
certainly proven he can handle the workload. As a senior at Illinois
last season Brown amassed 1,883 scrimmage yards and scored 13
touchdowns. His 1,643 rushing yards were 4th most in FBS, and
he was named 2nd team All-American. He’s an effective one-cut
runner with speed, and since he’ll never see a stacked box,
should have room to maneuver. He’s a sneaky great fit for
this offense as really runs hard behind his frame, and has three-down
versatility. With a passing game like the Bengals have, Brown
would only need some consistent opportunity to be a fantasy factor.
If Mixon is jettisoned from this roster, and they don’t
replace him with a big name, Brown offers insane value, especially
in early drafts and dynasty leagues.
A consensus top-3 pick at his position in any format on any planet,
Chase finished 2022 with an 87-1046-9 line despite missing four
games with a hip injury. With an improved line, and elite scheme,
and teammate chemistry, Chase should challenge his former college
teammate Justin Jefferson for fantasy supremacy. His elite route
running, ball skills, and run after the catch ability make him
a threat to score from anywhere, and his floor (only three of
his 29 career games have resulted in fewer than five standard
fantasy points) make him stand out among a growing list of franchise
receivers. He’s a worthy pick at the top of all fantasy
drafts.
Higgins, the other half of Cinci’s dynamic duo, continues to
be a dominant player. Despite missing a few games of his own,
he went over 1000 yards and scored a career high seven touchdowns
last season. His 10.4 standard points per game over the last two
seasons has him in the WR1 category, and there is no reason to
believe any type of regression will occur. There actually might
be room to grow. With continuity in the offense, and in the receiver
room, a contract year on tap and still only 24 years old despite
entering his 4th season, there is every reason to believe that
Higgins can still take a bigger step forward. I expect Cinci to
throw more this year, and that means more looks for Higgins. He’s
consistently been at about 110 targets every year, but with 51
targets following Samaje Perine to Denver, and the improved line
play, I think that target number goes up, and so does his overall
production.
While other teams might employ a more productive fantasy receiving
duo than the Bengals, few if any teams can support three fantasy
starters at receiver. Boyd continues to be the model of consistency
for this offense, and while his numbers have expectedly dipped
since the ascension of Chase and Higgins, he’s still managed
750+ yards and five touchdowns in each of the last two seasons,
good enough to be in the WR3 conversation. He makes a tremendous
value play on your roster as a fill-in starter or handcuff for
Higgins/Chase. With the loss of Perine’s 50+ targets, Boyd
could also be in line to soak up a few of those, increasing his
standalone value even further.
First it was C.J. Uzomah, now Hayden Hurst becomes the latest
tight end to bolt the Bengals for a new squad. For the third season
in the row the Bengals are forced to turn to a new starter at
tight end, but they might have gotten themselves the best pure
athlete they’ve had at the position in some time. Let’s
keep it real here, Smith was a big bust for the Vikings. Occasionally
he flashed that raw natural ability, but was too inconsistent
for the Vikings to trust. After struggling to stay healthy last
season, Smith was no longer needed after the Vikings dealt for
T.J. Hockenson at the trade deadline.
While it never fully came together in Minnesota for the former
2nd round pick out of Alabama, Smith gets a chance to reignite
his career on the Bengals. At best 4th or 5th in line for targets,
Smith still joins an offense that’s been able to get decent
production from players with much less athleticism than Smith.
The problem here is simply targets. Unlikely to see more than
60 looks, Smith just won’t get enough consistent volume
to be a starter. Maybe this is the year he puts it together, but
that’s what fantasy owners have told themselves for a few
years, only to eventually cast Smith off to the waiver wire. As
a supremely athletic tight end on a dominant offense, he’s
worth a look late in the draft as a backup, or upside pick on
a fantasy team looking to stitch together the position for the
season.
