The Lions entered Week 8 last season limping to a 1-6 record.
Having led the team to only six points total and multiple turnovers
in losses to New England and Dallas, it seemed Goff’s grip
on the starter job was tenuous at best. With their season slipping
away yet again, the Lions were at a crossroads. Goff and this
team showed something down the stretch, as they went 8-2, barely
missing a wild card slot in Week 18.
Roaring back (pun intended) the way Goff and the team did last
season has now created something not seen in Detroit for a long
while, expectations. Goff, now the undisputed steady handed leader
of the “Goffense” is playing for a big contract extension. I definitely
missed on him in this spot least year, as a porous defense, and
lack of consistent run game led to 587 pass attempts (2nd most
of his career) and making Goff a consistent fantasy asset during
the 2nd half of the year. This coaching staff seems to know exactly
what he does best, and have tailored an offense that is both creative
and aggressive when necessary. They added Jahmyr Gibbs in the
1st round, as a receiver-like back to create mismatches, and Goff
seems to understand the importance of getting the “free yards”
that defenses will concede. He was able to protect the ball, yet
still be explosive, throwing for the 2nd most touchdowns in his
career (29) and throwing only one interception in the final ten
games, while still finishing 8th in the NFL in air yards, and
tying Mahomes for the third-most pass attempts of 50+ yards.
Goff definitely overachieved on the field and for your fantasy squad
last season, but I don’t know another top-10 finish is in the cards.
Missing Jameson Williams for the first six games is going to hurt
the explosiveness of the passing game, and with an improved defense,
shootouts and 2nd half comebacks shouldn’t be as frequent. Look
at Goff as more of a high-end fantasy backup as a good bye week
fill in or short-term starter.
Whether it was too much time in the trainer's room, or the tendency
to freelance too much, the Lions tired of D’Andre Swift and dealt
him to the Eagles for a mid-round pick. To replace his role in
the offense, Detroit spent the 12th overall pick on the electric
Gibbs from Alabama. The All-SEC back was a versatile dynamo with
both the Tide and Georgia Tech. The 200-pound runner was widely
considered the best receiving back in the class, and brings 4.3
speed with him. If off-season minicamps are any indication, Gibbs
is going to be moved around the formation a ton, and coordinator
Ben Johnson has proved to have a knack for creativity, and making
the best use of his offensive talent. While his upside is capped
by the presence of free agent addition David Montgomery, Gibbs
should lead this backfield in touches. With a 50-catch floor,
look for Detroit to get the ball into his hands at least 200 total
times, and in a myriad of different ways. He’s sure to lose most
goal line scores, and might be limited by game script (Montgomery
will likely be the closer), but Detroit didn’t spend that kind
of draft capital to sit the kid. He’ll be a PPR machine, but has
RB1 upside even in standard leagues.
The other piece of the remade Detroit backfield, Montgomery
comes to the Lions to fill the Jamal Williams “thunder”
role. Entering his 5th NFL season, Montgomery has proved to be
a solid, if unspectacular back in the NFL. He’s been durable,
and incredibly consistent, putting up 1,000 total yards and at
least seven touchdowns in each of his first four seasons. While
his career rushing average leaves much to be desired, he’s
running behind the best line of his career, and won’t have
to carry the load with the presence of Gibbs. While this backfield
will be an annoying committee at times, there is a TON of value
to be had with Montgomery, and even if he sees a dip in total
touches, he won’t have those short yardage touchdowns vulture
by his quarterback. While Gibbs is going to get the hype and attention,
I think Montgomery can be an absolute steal, and a solid RB2 in
multiple formats that you can add later in the draft.
St. Brown followed up his historic rookie season with an even
better encore. The shifty slot receiver was nearly unguardable,
as he finished 5th in the NFL with 106 receptions. His 146 targets,
good for 8th in the league, proved he’s slated for much
more than a complementary piece in the NFL. Instead, as the sole
real receiver threat in the Detroit passing game, St. Brown carried
the offense as they surged in the 2nd half of the season. After
a ripping hot start to 2023, he cooled considerably, at least
until Week 10. In the final nine games St. Brown finished with
fewer than seven standard points only once (Week 18), and piled
up target totals of 11, 10, 12, 10, and 13.
The Sun-God will be counted on once again this year, as Jameson
Williams serves a six-game suspension, and the remainder of the
receiver room is mediocre at best. St. Brown made his money at
the short and intermediate level, as the deep balls were spread
elsewhere. He’s expressed a desire this offseason to be more of
a downfield threat, and he will need to be in order to enter the
upper echelon of receivers. St. Brown is a microcosm of how this
Detroit team is built. Punch above your weight, fight for every
yard, and be in a position to make plays. If he can add a vertical
dimension, he has a chance to repeat and maybe even exceed the
2022 top-10 finish.
Thanks to some ill-timed sports bets, Williams is going to have
to wait six games before he can make the impact that he, and the
Lions hope he is capable of. Rehabbing off a torn ACL last season,
Williams didn’t make his NFL debut until Week 13. In the
six games he played, he had two touches, but he certainly made
the most of them, hauling in a 41-yard bomb for a touchdown, and
burning the defense on a 40-yard rush. It’s a bit odd that
Williams had zero impact upon returning, but this coaching staff
values preparation more than anything, and likely felt giving
Williams a bigger role was unwarranted considering his return
from injury, and the absolute roll the offense was on at the time.
Obviously, the suspension saps a large chunk of fantasy value
from Williams this season, but he was never going to be a big
receptions guy early in his career. My bigger concern comes from
his clear lack of maturity and awareness off the field. Blessed
with unlimited physical gifts, the gambling situation, and several
social media posts show he has a long way to go to be a professional.
After a lost first season, and now a 2nd season impacted, Williams
will be under heavy pressure to produce when he returns. But what
if Detroit is humming along again? I’m willing to take an
end of the draft flier on his talent alone, but I’m really
uncertain he’s even worth the stash if your league has a
shallow bench.
To show you just how dire the receiver depth is in Detroit, (make
a call to DeAndre Hopkins?) consider the fact that Josh Reynolds
is going to be called on to play a ton of meaningful snaps while
Williams serves his suspension. Entering his 3rd season with the
Lions, the former 4th round pick of the Rams, topped out with a
38-497-3 line on 59 targets last season. The best you can say about
him is he’s reliable, and has a great rapport with Goff, whom he
has been teammates with now for several seasons. He did have a pretty
strong start last year, scoring 9+ points in four of the first five
weeks, but a midseason injury had him all but disappear down the
stretch. This offense spreads the ball around like few others, but
I think Reynolds should provide some sneaky value, especially early
in the season. Finding a WR3 at (least for a chunk of the season),
for a miniscule investment is still a pretty good deal. Don’t forget
about Reynolds on draft night.
With T.J. Hockenson shipped to the Vikings mid-season, Detroit
stitched together the position for the remainder of the year.
Enter LaPorta, the 2nd round pick from the tight end farm of the
Midwest, The University of Iowa. There have been 12 tight ends
drafted from Iowa while Kirk Ferentz has been the coach and more
than a few have gone on to become fantasy names. The Lions, and
LaPorta hope to be the next. Historically, this is a position
to avoid in fantasy if it’s a rookie, especially one with
good, but limited physical skills. LaPorta was extremely productive
in college, but nothing leaps off the page. He was developed by
some of the best tight end coaches in college, but will take time
to find his place in the NFL. Look for him to learn and grow as
the season goes on, and eventually solidify the position for the
Lions, but there are plenty of other places to look for fantasy
production.
