18 years feels like a lifetime ago for most, including Jordan
Love, who was just seven years old when Aaron Rodgers was drafted
by the Packers. While the future Hall of Famer finishes his career
in a different shade of green, Love becomes just the 3rd Green
Bay franchise quarterback in the last 30 years. Can this string
of all-time signal callers continue? I honestly don’t know.
Since being a 1st round pick in 2020, Love has only attempted
83 passes, most of them coming in mop-up duty. In his only career
start back in 2021 he was dreadful, completing only half of his
passes for 190 yards in a 13-7 loss to Kansas City. There isn’t
even much to glean from his college career, as he really only
had one great year at Utah State.
I truly wish I could have a hot take here and tell you that Love
is going to be the sleeper hit QB of 2023, or that he’s sure to
tank, but I just don’t know. Even though he hasn’t seen many meaningful
snaps, he has experience in the offense, has mentored under Rodgers
for several years, and definitely has the confidence of the coaching
staff and teammates. Unfortunately, none of those things are fantasy
scoring categories. His solid core of skill position players do
give him a fair shot to succeed, but every pass catcher is young
(none of the current starters have more than two years’ experience)
and that will lead to some serious consistency issues. With very
little rushing upside to lift his floor (26 career rushing yards
in eight appearances) I could only consider him a mid-tier QB2
at the very best.
Entering his age 28 season, and his 7th in the NFL, it’s probably
safe to say Jones is on the other side of his prime. Although
he is no longer the dominant league winner he was in 2019 and
2020, he remains one of the most consistent RB1s across multiple
formats. Despite the presence of AJ Dillon, Jones piled up 272
touches and seven scores last season. The 1,516 total yards were
the 2nd most of his career, and with Love taking over, Jones will
likely be tasked to handle an additional load. Jones was able
to remain incredibly efficient (5.3 yards-per-carry) despite the
2nd most carries of his career (213). Dillon aside, Jones should
continue to be the back to own on this team, and has a chance
to be another fantastic value pick that can anchor your backfield
if you focus on receivers early in your draft.
Dillon has been a strong fantasy asset since taking over the
1b role in this backfield in 2021. The Packers have been very
consistent in his usage as his touch totals (221 and 214) and
production have been near mirror images of each other the last
two seasons. Better in standard leagues due to his short yardage
touchdown potential and presence of Jones soaking up most of the
backfield targets, Dillon is an elite FLEX and has great standalone
value as well. He’s one of the few backs in fantasy worth
drafting as a borderline starter that has a direct line to elite
usage if Jones were to suffer an injury.
The receiver room in Green Bay has been totally remade in the
last few seasons with all of the veteran mainstays gone from the
roster. Not a single receiver remains on the team from 2021, as
the last two drafts have restocked the receiver room. Watson leads
the youth movement as currently the most accomplished and highest
ceiling player on the offense. Although he flashed his tantalizing
physical gifts during brief stretches of his rookie year, there
were plenty of duds, especially the first half of the year. After
a monster 4-107-3 performance in a win against Dallas in Week
10, Aaron Rodgers finally felt comfortable targeting Watson in
big spots. He saw no fewer than 5 targets along the way, and his
stretch from Week 10 to Week 13 likely clinched playoff berths
for fantasy owners patient enough to hold on to some shares of
the rookie.
Vaulting to the WR1 and alpha receiver on the offense automatically
puts Watson in the fantasy spotlight. With a year of experience
under his belt, Watson should be able to play faster this season,
and expand his route tree. The move to Love is certainly a downgrade
in quarterback play, but it’s very likely the duo has been
able to build chemistry during their work as backups and now franchise
cornerstones. His speed makes him deadly downfield, but it’s
his 6’4’’ frame, and better understanding of
red zone concepts that make him a threat for double digit touchdowns.
As long as Love doesn’t totally fall flat, Watson has serious
boom potential in this offense. He has standard league WR1 potential
at a WR2 price.
A preseason darling this time a year ago, the 2022 4th round
rookie from Nevada didn’t make quite the impact some were
hoping. A respectable 42-425-3 line came as a touchdown or bust
fantasy player. After a strong start, he faded in the 2nd half,
as teammate, and fellow rookie Christian Watson found his way
back into ARod’s good graces. Unfortunately for Doubs, that
looks to carry over into 2023. More of a technician than physical
freak, Doubs isn’t necessarily in line for a big uptick
in targets despite the loss of Cobb and Lazard. Rodgers had the
10th most pass attempts last season, and I just don’t see
Love throwing it up nearly that much this season as he transitions
into the starting role. With fewer balls in the air, and Watson
and Jones soaking up a good chunk of them, there isn’t enough
volume for Doubs to be anything more than a back end of the roster
player.
I’ll be perfectly honest, in preparing for this part of
the outlook I had to search the Packer depth chart to find the
potential starting tight end for Green Bay. The Packers have completely
overhauled nearly every pass catcher on this offense in recent
seasons, and Musgrave is another of the younglings expected to
step into an important role. The 3rd tight end drafted in the
2nd round this spring, Musgrave is just about as raw of a tight
end prospect as you can get. With only 47 receptions in his four
years at Oregon State, Musgrave is an athletic move tight end
that is going to have to learn how to play all dimensions of the
position. Learning on the job rarely equates to fantasy relevance,
so look elsewhere for production.
