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2024 Player Outlooks: Green Bay Packers

By Colby Cavaliere | 7/1/24 |

Jordan Love

QB Jordan Love
2023 QB Rank - No.5, 22.6 FPts/G

Itís typical for most franchises to struggle to transition away from HOF quarterbacks, as the Steelers, Saints, Broncos, and Patriots can all attest to. The Cheeseheads up north simply shrug and find a new one, as Jordan Loveís debut season could indeed set them up until 2040.

After languishing on the bench behind the mercurial Aaron Rodgers, Love finally got his shot last season. After a quick start, Love and the team cooled considerably, and an early season four-game losing streak seemed to have the doubters saying ďI told you soĒ. In the season's first nine games Love had a shaky 14-10 touchdown to interception ratio as Green Bay labored to score points. But an immensely young offensive core seemed to gel, and the return of a running game seemed to give balance to a languishing offense. From Week 11 on, Love surged, piling up a staggering 18 touchdowns with only a single interception. The team subsequently caught fire as well, going 6-2, locking up the wild card, and coming within a wisp of making it all the way to the Super Bowl. Love was masterful down the stretch, looking totally in control of the offense, and making off schedule plays with his arm and legs.

With a monster contract extension on the horizon, deep receiver room, and an offensive head coach that is a genius as scheming guys open, Love truly sits in the catbird seat. While his 2023 touchdown numbers (36 total) will be very hard to duplicate, Love should remain a safe floor value pick as your QB1 and has upside for more if Christan Watson can bring a consistent vertical element back to the offense.

RB Josh Jacobs
2023 RB Rank - No.25, 11.2 FPts/G

Coming off a career high 393 touches during an MVP worthy 2022 season, Jacobs struggled mightily last season. His yards-per-carry average dropped precipitously (4.9 in 2022 to 3.5 in 2023) and he missed four games due to injury. Heís got a ton of wear on his tires (nearly 1,500 total touches in five seasons), and the contract he signed with Green Bay reflects the concerns about his long-term durability. The four-year $48 million dollar deal is essentially a one-year $14.8-million-dollar pact, as the remaining three years are not guaranteed. The hope is that last season's breakdown is not a sign of things to come, but the Pack have hedged their bet.

I do think this a strong schematic fit, as the zone blocking scheme, and multiple threats in the passing game should give Jacobs much more room to operate than he had in Vegas. While not the home-run hitter Aaron Jones was, Jacobs has receiving chops (two 50+ catch seasons) and should be a solid upgrade at the goal line. Green Bay is going to remain a pass first offense, but expect Jacobs to reach 1,000 yards on the ground, and he should be able to push for double-digit touchdowns in such an efficient offense. With only AJ Dillon and rookie 3rd rounder MarShawn Lloyd behind him, Jacobs will be the uncontested starter, and with health, could finish as a low-end RB1 that you can probably get for a RB2 price.

RB AJ Dillon
2023 RB Rank - No.40, 6.4 FPts/G

After testing the free agent waters and getting hardly a sniff, Dillon surprisingly returned to the Packers on a cheap one-year deal. Unfortunately for Green Bay and fantasy owners, Dillon has been a huge disappointment since coming over as a 2nd round pick. Despite having multiple opportunities due to Aaron Jones injuries, Dillon has consistently proven to be nothing more than a mediocre role player. He plodded his way to a career low 3.4 yards-per-carry average last season, and his legendary leg size has been better for social media clicks, than short yardage conversions. Heís a cheap, veteran insurance policy whose main value is being familiar with the offense and isnít worth the roster spot in fantasy.

RB MarShawn Lloyd
2023 RB Rank - N/A

Lloyd, the 3rd rounder out of USC (he played for both Southern Cal and South Carolina) brings the dynamic element to the running game that was lost when Aaron Jones departed. He was electric in college, and flashed at the combine with a 4.4 in the 40-yard dash. The biggest obstacle to playing time is a lack of experience in the passing game. Matt LeFleurís concepts are notoriously complex, and Lloyd wasnít asked to participate much as a blocker or receiver in college. He only had 34 receptions in his three-year collegiate career, and tack that on to a penchant for fumbling, and you have the makings of a tricky situation. Lloyd brings a unique speed element to this backfield, but there are lots of roadblocks to playing time. In deep leagues he might be worth a bench stash if he looks good in the preseason and can leap Dillon in camp.

WR Jayden Reed
2023 WR Rank Ė No.19, 9.5 FPts/G

The rookie 2nd rounder from Michigan State burst onto the scene in 2023 with a final line of 54-793-8, eventually working as the defacto No.1 receiver in the offense. Like most of the other skill position players, Reed caught fire in the 2nd half of the season and built a strong connection with Love.

Year two brings an obvious progression of comfort in the offense, and the Green Bay passing game will be a nightmare for defenses to defend against because of its versatility. Unfortunately, it will also be a nightmare for fantasy owners. Just like committee backfields have become the bane of the running back position, the Packers donít have a certified alpha receiver. After trading away Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers, LaFleur has been able to truly deploy his system. Predicated on always throwing to the open man, rather than peppering an elite talent with targets, Reed is just one of several receivers capable of leading a week in targets. All of the Packer receivers were fairly touchdown dependent, which is always an unreliable metric. Itís going to be tough to trust any of these Green Bay receivers as more than WR3s on a weekly basis, but Reed should line up as being the most consistent.

WR Romeo Doubs
2023 WR Rank Ė No.39, 6.8 FPts/G

Like his teammate Reed, Doubs also busted out in a big way setting career highs with a 59-674-8 line. Despite putting the ball in the air 579 times (tied for 5th in the NFL), the Packers were the only team with that many attempts to have only one receiver in the top 35 in receptions. This is exactly how the scheme is designed, and like the rest of the receivers, Doubsí value will be tied up in the number of times he finds the endzone. After a nine-target game in Week 8, Doubs failed to see more than seven looks in a game the rest of the way and was basically a touchdown or bust option for the 2nd half of the year. All these ingredients are great for real life football, but an absolute misery for fantasy. Best viewed as a low end WR3/bench fill-in, Doubs will be hard pressed to repeat his 2023 numbers especially if Watson returns and remains healthy.

WR Christian Watson
2023 WR Rank Ė No. 61, 8.1 FPts/G

It was largely a lost season right from the jump, as Watson missed eight games due to lingering hamstring injuries. The most physically gifted of all the Packer receivers, Watson still made the most of his healthy snaps, popping off in Weeks 12 and 13, and finding the endzone five times on only 28 receptions. His elite speed, and size in the redzone give him the biggest upside of any Green Bay receiver, but his health and role in a crowded receiver room make him a fantasy conundrum. Due to some serious sports science analysis, it seems Watson has found the causes of his lower body woes. If thatís the case heíll provide a lethal big play element for the Pack, and could be an amazing fantasy value. If health and route development come together, he has the physical tools to be elite, but until that translates, heíll still be a boom/bust option.

TE Luke Musgrave / Tucker Kraft
2023 TE Rank – No. 35, 3.7 FPts/G, No.28 4.8 FPts/G

It’s likely that this pair of 2023 rookies spent very little, if any time on fantasy rosters last season. The young duo did combine for a 65-703-3 line through the season, but like all of the receivers on this team, that scheme makes them all moving parts. Musgrave, coming off an injury shortened season due to a lacerated kidney, has also missed some off-season work with a pec injury. For all practical and metric reasons, he was a solid player in his rookie year, but there are simply way too many mouths to feed in this passing game.

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