With free agency less than two weeks away let’s take a look
each skill position and highlight some of the biggest names available.
I’ll match each player with a team that I think would be a
best-case scenario for his fantasy value in 2018. I’ve already
discussed the tight ends and
wide receivers. Up next are
the Running Backs.
McKinnon is looking for an opportunity
to be an every-down back. The Giants seem like a perfect fit.
Bell has played all 16 games in just one of his five seasons in
the NFL, the missing 18 games the result of suspensions and/or
injuries. But the 25-year-old has been so effective when he is
on the field (he’s amassed almost 9,000 yards from scrimmage
and 45 TDs in 62 career games), that he’ll undoubtedly find
a buffet of lucrative options on the open market. He played on
a $12.1 million franchise tag in 2017, and that number is projected
to increase to around $14.5 million for next season. But Bell
has said that he’ll sit out a season – or even retire
– if he’s his smacked with the franchise tag…
then changed his tune, stating he wouldn’t hold out.
Best Fit: Steelers
When asked if the Steelers could reach an agreement with Bell
before the March 6 NFL franchise tag deadline, Kevin Colbert said,
“We hope so.” And last July, Bell turned down a long-term
contract that reports said was worth up to $30 million in the
first two years – because he felt the team didn't value
his full skill set. But cooler heads, if not greedier ones, should
prevail in this case. The Steelers have no really good reason
to move on from Bell, and the dynamic back’s skills seem
to be essential to the quick-hitting, efficient offensive attack
that makes the Steelers so dangerous.
Other possibilities: Lions, Bucs, Patriots, Browns
McKinnon is tired of playing second-fiddle in Minnesota – blocked
from exceeding much more than 150 rushing attempts and the majority
of snaps during his time there. He told ESPN in January that he
wants “to be the guy” and is looking forward to “bigger and better
things for myself.” But with Dalvin
Cook set to return from an ACL injury and Latavius
Murray under contract for a couple more seasons, he’s not
going to find his happy place with the 2018 Vikings. Teams like
the Browns, Bucs, Jets and Dolphins will all be looking for backs
in free agency, but there’s one team that makes a perfect fit.
Best Fit: Giants
With former Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur headed to
New York as the Giants new head coach, it’s easy to picture McKinnon
tagging along. The Giants are in desperate need of a back with
McKinnon’s skill set and talents, as well as someone who fits
into the vision of the coaching staff – a problem that’s plagued
their running game for several seasons. The G-Men ranked just
26th in rushing in 2017 (96.8 ypg) and could use McKinnon’s speed
and sensibilities to give the passing game a little more breathing
room. The Giants don’t have anybody who’s a clear-cut option better
than McKinnon, so if he’s looking for a fair shot at playing time
in 2018, he should just hitch his wagon to Shurmer, who’ll be
calling the plays. At 5-9, 205, I doubt he’ll ever be a workhorse,
but those are rare these days anyway. But cracking 200 carries
and posting 50-60 catches a season is realistic for McKinnon,
who’ll be 26 in May.
I’m a huge fan of Lewis, but I’m from the Capital Region in New
York State, and there aren’t a lot of NFL running backs that Albany
can call its own. Lewis has had a bizarre, tumultuous career thus
far, culminating in last season’s breakout for the Pats. While
the shifty 27-year-old back has spent the last three seasons in
New England, he was limited in his first two years after tearing
his ACL midway through 2015 and spending much of 2016 rehabbing.
His career started in Philadelphia. After failing to find much
playing time as a fifth-round pick for the Eagles in 2011, he
spent some time with the Browns (fractured fibula) and Colts (seven
days in 2014). But this past season, he played all 16 games for
the first time in his career and finished with 896 rushing yards
and six TDs.
Best Fit: Jets
Lewis is a veteran back without a ton of miles on his legs, and
he’s probably just what the Jets are looking for in terms of upside
and effectiveness. They’ll have plenty of competition, since no
fewer than seven teams have expressed an interest in pursuing
his talents. And while New Jersey isn’t really home (he was born
in Brooklyn and grew up in Albany), he went to Blair Academy prep
school in rural New Jersey and led their football team to a Prep
state title. The Jets don’t currently have a playmaker running
back of his caliber, and they are most likely looking at a committee
of sorts, where Lewis could fit quite well, chipping in on special
teams if needed.
Other possibilities: Texans, 49ers, Colts, Raiders
Hyde is a tough, elusive back who has been hindered in San Francisco
on a team without clear leadership and vision, and while the tide
is turning for the Niners, the future is still up in the air since
they have a host of notable free agents and have bad negotiators
handling their contract discussions. Hyde did have his best season
in 2017, when he rushed for 940 yards and eight TDs, hauling in
59-350-0 receiving. Looking at some of the analytics gives us
a more robust picture, including these tidbits:
Hyde forced a missed tackle every 5.3 rushes in 2017, 11th best
among eligible RBs.
He was not tackled on 28.3 percent of times an opposing player
first contacted him.
Best Fit: Lions
I get the feeling that Hyde is looking for a change of scenery,
and that the Niners are fine moving forward with UDFA Matt Breida
and Joe Williams, who is fully recovered from the ankle injury
that cost him his rookie season. The Niners didn't seem all that
committed to Hyde throughout coach Kyle Shanahan's first year
in charge, and the narrative shows us that Hyde consistently lost
crucial reps to Breida, and his receiving numbers really fell
off once Jimmy Garoppolo took over. I don’t think the current
talks are in earnest.
The Lions, on the other hand, have their own versions of disappointment
to look at among their current depth chart and need a change.
Hyde’s not going to cost a bundle, so they can sign him
for a fraction of the bigger names on the free agent list, and
he’s going to be an improvement on Ameer Abdullah and company.
Other possibilities: Jets, Colts, Raiders, Dolphins
It’s unlikely Crowell will remain in Cleveland and he’s
probably looking at a decent payday somewhere. He’s played
well despite being on a pitiful team (3,888 total yards from scrimmage
and 22 TDs over four seasons in only 45 career starts). He’s
a grinder-type of back who can shoulder a big workload, and he’s
entering his age-25 season. What makes him a favorable target
is how much mileage he has left. Over four seasons in the league,
Crowell has been in the 140-210 carry range, considerably lower
than other bell-cow backs (LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley)
and he’s still entering his prime.
Best Fit: Dolphins
Pairing a back like Crowell with talented speedster Kenyan Drake
would allow Miami to keep both runners fresh and maximize their
abilities on the field. A lot of the landing spots of Crowell
and the other backs like him will depend on negotiations and interviews
– where they can hash out their visions for the offense
and the convoluted roles on the modern NFL running back. If the
Patriots decide not to give Mike Gillislee another shot, Crowell
could make a great fit in New England, who have a slew of RBs
(Bell, Bilal Powell, Charles Sims) on their radar.
Other possibilities: Panthers, Giants, Jets, Bucs
The Bucs were a team in distress last season, finishing 27th in
the NFL by averaging only 90.6 yards rushing per game and Martin
was a big part of the problem. He failed to rush for 500 yards
for the fourth time in five seasons, and was suspended for the
first three games (the remainder of an earlier suspension he incurred
when dealing with substance abuse issues and a rehab stint). But
Martin’s problems continued, as he was made inactive for
another game for violating team rules, which Bucs GM Jason Licht
addressed after the season was over:
“I think the lack of, or having a hard time getting the
run game going was…you know, Doug just didn't have…he
just wasn't ever the same,'” Licht said during an interview
with the Tampa Bay Times. “And it wasn't until late that
Peyton (Barber) kind of arrived and things started going a little
bit better with him, starting with the Green Bay game and on and
on.”
Best Fit: Packers
Tampa Bay saved $6.75 million against the cap releasing Martin,
who was an All-Pro as recently as 2015. He’s a veteran back
looking for a quiet rebuild to his career and the opportunity
to contribute to a contender while ushering in the next generation
of talent. So why not Green Bay? The Packers are a running-back
needy team and they could easily sign him to a one-year, incentive-laden
deal if he’s truly looking to hit the reset button. There
probably won’t be too many teams anxious to sign Martin,
and the prospect of a long-term deal is minimal. But the opportunity
for him to prove himself in a new setting is there, and the Packers
could be a great landing spot.
Other possibilities: Giants, Rams, Titans, Ravens, Patriots
