Week 16
12/18/08
Last Week’s Question
In last week’s column, I
asked readers to write in with suggestions for putting Week 17 to
use. I am grateful to everyone who responded, but I fear I would
overwhelm my audience with minutiae if I included every reader’s
variation on this theme. I have therefore selected the three responses
that are least like the suggestions I have received in past years.
If you are itching to keep the fantasy season alive for one more
week, it should not be hard to modify one of these suggestions for
your league (regardless of what kind of league it is).
I’ll start with Cary’s response because his experience
likely mirrors that of many readers. Once upon a time, he got
burned by a championship game that was scheduled for Week 17:
In the past our league concluded our championship
bracket in Week 17, and I can tell you from firsthand experience
that it can be an unsatisfying experience, having lost the championship
game a couple of years ago by one point because I thought Tom
Brady would play at least a quarter, only to have him play only
a series.
For many leagues, experiences such as the one described by Cary
are the catalysts for moving championships to Week 16. It seems
that Cary’s league, however, would have continued with a
Week 17 championship if not for an expansion of the league:
This year, our league expanded from 12 to
14 teams. As part of that expansion, we went to single division
format, with a 13-game regular season, and playoff games in weeks
14-16. This seemed the best route because it was balanced. Every
team played every other team only once, and no one would be able
to open a back door into the playoffs by playing a weaker team
twice or dominating a weaker division. However, with the championship
game (and toilet bowl) in Week 16, a void was created in Week
17. So, to help postpone the post partum blues (so to speak) for
another week, we came up with a “dream team” gimmick
game for Week 17.
Using our regular season starting roster and scoring rules, every
owner will select a dream team of players for the Week 17 game,
and the team with the highest score will win some cash. The only
downside is that it will take some effort on my part to manage,
but that’s what I signed up for, so no worries.
Most of the suggestions I receive concerning “Pro Bowls”
or “Dream Teams” in Week 17 incorporate some rules
to prevent different owners from submitting identical teams. However,
the appeal of the wide-open approach described by Cary is that
it is really easy to implement—even as an afterthought.
There is no planning required, and it puts everyone on an equal
footing.
It isn’t necessary to get bent out of shape about the possibility
of different owners selecting the same players. In the first place,
owners who are left completely to their own devices are unlikely
to select identical sets of players. In the second place, even
if there are two identical teams in your league, they probably
won’t end up with the most points. (Who really cares about
the two owners who tied for sixth?) And in the third place, if
there is a tie for a winner in your Week 17 “Pro Bowl,”
it’s easy enough to split the pot.
Those who want a slightly more complicated approach to a “Pro
Bowl” may be interested in what Ross has to say:
In our 8-team salary cap dynasty league, we
use week 17 for a Pro-bowl. Each owner submits a standard line-up
for our league. The only wrinkle is it must use at least 1 player
from each owner's roster. The 4 play-off teams compete against
the 4 teams that missed the play-offs. The scores are from each
set of 4 teams are summed up, and the group with the lower total
score buys pizza (or some other agreed upon food) for next season's
free agent auction (equivalent of a draft). The beer is provided
by the team that finished in last place, so we are all set for
auction. In this format, it usually is beneficial to coordinate
line-ups to minimize the risk of players being rested for a half
or whole game. Sometimes it's unavoidable. For instance, 2 or
3 years ago, the Eagles had not yet clinched their play-off spot,
and Jeff Garcia was on a hot streak. We started him on 2 of 4
line-ups. The Eagles played the late game and some team lost in
the early game clinching a play-off spot for the Eagles. Garcia
played the first series and was then sent to the bench to rest.
I think our Pro-bowl is a great way to make week 17 interesting
but not impact FF play-offs with the risk of NFL teams resting
their stars.
The approach I want to close with comes from Nev, whose “tag
team” variation is unlike anything I have ever encountered.
It seems like a great way to build camaraderie between owners
at the end of a season:
We are in our 21st season and have been utilizing
Week 17 for the past 10 years. Everyone seems to enjoy our “Tag-Team
Battle Royal,” which reduces the entry fee for next season
by $50 for two lucky winners. Basically, each owner puts in an
extra $10 for this purpose at the beginning of the year.
Here's how it works: the schedule for Week 17 has match-ups where
your opponent is actually
your Tag-Team partner. Your partner team is assigned based strictly
on the League’s Week 13 Power Rankings (a CBS Sportsline
feature, but something analogous can be done manually if necessary).
In our 10-team league, number 1 partners with number 10, 2 with
9 and so forth and so on. The duo with the highest combined score
wins. A Tiebreaker would be broken according to our current rules
using the benches from both teams combined.
This gives us the ability to use Week 17 in a competitive meaningful
way without impacting the coveted League Championship.
The fact that the partnerships at the end of the season are always
unpredictable presumably only makes things more fun for Nev and
his fellow participants in the “tag-team battle royal.”
This Week’s Question
What are the 5 most boneheaded fantasy decisions that you made
or witnessed this season?
In the LMS section at the end of this column, Marc Mondry asks
readers to chime in on the most boneheaded plays from the NFL
this season. I look forward to seeing how readers respond to his
question, but I’ll leave it to Marc to explain why J.P.
Losman is klutzier than DeSean Jackson.
As for me, I’m not sure that Joseph Addai has done anything
particularly boneheaded this season, but it may have been boneheaded
of me to think that taking him in the first round was a “safe,
solid pick”—as I told myself at the time.
(Courtesy
of Marc Mondry)
Two weeks left. Congratulations on making it this far! (I assume
if you are still reading you are at least in contention.) Welcome
to the most difficult LMS week in the 2008 season. As I remarked
to one of my readers just yesterday, “This is the week that
is going to separate the men from the boys.” Only one team
is favored by more than a touchdown to start the week (Houston,
-7.5), and half of the favorites are visiting teams.
Last Week’s Bust: None
Actually, I’m going to take a moment to pat myself on the
back (feel free to skip ahead). This is the first time I have
not missed a LMS pick in consecutive weeks! Actually, if you have
been following closely, you’ll notice that I am 11/12 in
the last month. Sweet. And this week, I even nailed the Bengals
over Redskins game. Life is good when things work out the way
you plan.
Trap Game: Cincinnati over Cleveland
I was absolutely bewildered when I saw that Cleveland was favored
by 3.5, even in Cleveland. Everything I said last week about the
Bengals playing better ball applies directly to this game (particularly
when we factor in Cedric Benson’s 150+ yards from scrimmage).
Moreover, since Ken Dorsey took the helm, the Browns have had
no prayer of winning a game. Even the defense, which looked mildly
improved in the middle of the season, has been delivering lackluster
performances week in and week out. It’s tough to get motivated
when your offense cannot move the ball—and you anticipate
being on the field for 40 minutes a game. Don’t forget that
the struggling Browns did not force an Eagles punt Monday night
until there were less than 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.
For those of you that did not watch that game, the 30-10 score
makes it look closer than it was, as it was 30-3 when Kevin Kolb
came in and immediately threw a pick that was returned for the
Browns’ only TD. In fact, Tony Kornheiser actually provided
some useful commentary Monday night when he pointed out that the
Browns have not had an offensive touchdown in a month.
Pick 3: Denver over Buffalo
(SEATTLE, JACKSONVILLE, NEW YORK GIANTS,
MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, CAROLINA,
CHICAGO, TENNESSEE, INDIANAPOLIS, NEW YORK JETS)
It goes to show you how difficult a week it is when I succumb
to my urge to pick Denver. My confidence gets a boost when I watch
highlights of the Bills vs. Jets game from Sunday and laugh out
loud watching J.P. Losman make one of the most boneheaded plays
I have seen all season. Losman’s gaffe is even more boneheaded
than DeSean Jackson’s drop on the 1 yard line. Do any readers
have any other bonehead play of the week nominations? This could
be fun – send them in.
Back to business. There are a lot of things to like about this
game. You have a fairly hot Denver playing at home and in need
of one more win to clinch the division. If they don’t get
the win this week, they need to travel to San Diego and beat the
Chargers in order to keep the Chargers from taking the division
title out of their hands. The AFC West is so weak that only the
division winner will get to sniff the postseason, so it is put
up or shut up time for the Broncos. Luckily for them, they draw
Buffalo this week, who has only one weapon, Marshawn Lynch. What
makes me nervous about this game is that Denver might not be able
to stop the run even with 8 in the box. Denver should likely win
and clinch the division this week, but this is my #3 pick for
a reason. It isn’t hard to imagine Lynch going off for 120+
yards and multiple TDs, keeping Cutler off the field long enough
for the Bills to secure a win.
Pick 2: Houston over Oakland
(TENNESSEE, dallas, CHICAGO, new york
giants, TAMPA BAY, san francisco, Jacksonville, CAROLINA, philadelphia,
WASHINGTON, new york jets, NEW ENGLAND, INDIANAPOLIS)
Houston!?!? Yes, Houston. They have quietly been playing some
very good football. Steve Slaton is for real, Andre Johnson is
in my opinion the best WR in the NFL (maybe 2nd behind Calvin
Johnson), and the Texan defense has been containing offenses effectively
for weeks. Houston has won 4 games in a row (JAX, GB, CLE, TEN);
they held the Titans and Browns out of the end zone completely;
and their last loss was a dogfight (27-33) with the then very
hot Colts.
All that was the good news. The bad news is that Houston has
to travel to Oakland, stop a healthy Darren McFadden and an upstart
Johnnie Lee Higgins, and it remains to be seen what Andre Johnson
can do against Nnamdi Asomugha. My money is actually on the Oakland
CB, but Houston has enough weapons in the passing game (Owen Daniels,
Kevin Walter, and Steve Slaton) to compensate and still put up
big numbers. Add into the mix that Oakland is absolutely pitiful
against the run, and you have a recipe for the Texans to put up
30+ points. Oakland’s offense simply cannot keep up with
production like that.
Pick 1: New Orleans over Detroit
(BUFFALO, denver, CAROLINA, washington,
TENNESSEE, NEW YORK JETS, CHICAGO, ARIZONA, NEW YORK GIANTS, PITTSBURGH,
DALLAS, SAN DIEGO, PHILADELPHIA)
Don’t get me wrong – this one most likely will not
be a blowout. I am thinking something like 38-28. Neither defense
is going to be able to stop the opposition, other than the Saints
containing Kevin Smith, as they have been playing well against
the run lately. Dan Orlovsky might put up his best numbers of
the season, and Calvin Johnson is an absolute beast, but it just
will not be enough to match the Saints’ offense. Brees is
money week in and week out, and with the emergence of Pierre Thomas
as a very strong (I hesitate to say dominant, but perhaps he is)
RB, there is a lot less pressure on Brees to make everything happen
with his arm. I am putting the over/under for the Saints at 5
offensive TDs. Anyone care to take the under? Anyone think Detroit
can put up 35 points, even against New Orleans? Didn’t think
so. (As always, if you do think so, let me know!)
That’s all I’ve got for this week – this last
game does not need a lot of heavy analysis. I think at this point
in the season for the most part you know what you are going to
get from a lot of these teams. One thing you must watch out for
is teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs. Some teams
absolutely love the spoiler role; others are incapable of playing
it. Talk to homers on the forums; they can tell you which teams
are which.
Those who want to hit
me up for personal analysis of their LMS situations should
get their information to me by noon on Friday. Otherwise, I cannot
guarantee I will be able to answer you on time. Good luck this
week!
For responses to this week's fantasy question please email
me no later than 10 a.m. EST on Wednesdays during the football
season.
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