Week 5
10/2/08
Our tribute to Matthew Schiff (FFToday’s freshly retired Last
Man Standing guru) continues this week. The eight participants who
remain in the contest to replace Schiff are (in alphabetical order):
Michael Bode, Anthony Catalano, Spencer Coffey, Jeff DuBransky,
Walt Kindelberger, Doug Lecorchick, Marc Mondry, and Scott Morrison.
LMS picks for the Week 5 games from all eight participants appear
at the bottom of this column. Readers who care only about the
picks themselves should scroll down to the final section of the
column, but those who are interested in the men behind the picks
will want to see how our contestants responded to the “Spotlight
Questionnaire” I submitted to them last week.
This week’s column features the responses of the last four
contestants (Kindelberger, Lecorchick, Mondry, and Morrison) to
the questionnaire. For the responses of the first 4 contestants
(Bode, Catalano, Coffey, and DuBransky), please see last
week’s column.
Question #1: Who the heck are you, and what
experience/qualifications do you have to suggest that readers
should pay any attention to you anyway?
Spotlight on Walt Kindelberger:
So this is what it feels like to have my name up
in "internet lights"? Let’s hope the spotlight
captures my best side. I sure hope Mike Krueger is as good a stonewaller
[of creditors] as reported.
I am a thirty-something life-long football fan—particularly
pro football, and more specifically the Steelers. I figure that
admission alone will start the hate mail, but so be it. I started
playing fantasy football in the "Beer Book" days; you
got the rules at the distributor when you bought a case of beer
(or when your "of age" friends bought a case of beer).
I have been playing ever since, and have done pretty well over
the years in the various types of games, from traditional FFL,
to Pick 'em pools, to FFTOC, etc.
The reasons to pay attention to me are sound logic and sheer entertainment
value. I will provide readers with well-considered, logical, and
insightful picks each week free of charge. Included in the price
will be between 3 and 30 seconds of stress-reducing levity. I
do not, however, have or offer any of the following: a magic formula,
insider information, a credit line in Vegas, a crystal ball, a
full head of hair, any warranty or guarantee, insurance to cover
your potential losses, the names of any bookmakers, Jessica Simpson's
phone number, etc.
I am likely as worthy as most other football "experts"
on the internet, which means I probably rank somewhere between
your bartender and your lawyer. I will let you determine which
of them offers the more reliable advice.
Spotlight on Doug Lecorchick:
I am a Son of a B . . . bookie that is. My whole
life I watched money being put down on teams that were all ‘sure
wins’ and have seen a lot upset people. I learned the hard
way that sentimental picks, trends, and popular teams don’t
have a place in handicapping. I use a tier unit system and rank
weekly picks accordingly (more on that in the following answers).
Spotlight on Marc Mondry:
Quite frankly, I’m nobody as far as the fantasy
football world is concerned. I’m a first-year law student
at GW law. I have no journalism experience whatsoever, and have
only been seriously involved in fantasy football for 4 years.
So – why listen to me? I was talking to my
buddy about this writing contest, and he said “Wow, this
is your calling!” Now, I’d like to think that my aspirations
in life are slightly grander than writing a fantasy football column—perhaps
becoming a great lawyer, making money, and being a fantastic future
husband and father. On the other hand, what could be more important
than providing an avid fantasy football community with the best
information, advice, and comedy that (literally) no money can
buy?
Which brings me back to my first point –
why listen? Because I am about as obsessive about fantasy football
(and thus as knowledgeable) as anyone else. Fantasy is not a one-day-a-week
deal for me, but rather a seven-day affliction. I spend hours
every day [soaking up football information]. Now what is the benefit
of this? I flat out know my ****. You may not agree with me, but
you’ll certainly make a much more informed decision after
listening.
Spotlight on Scott Morrison:
I'm the past founder and sole content writer of
Sportsplayer.com, which offered fantasy football articles and
pro football picks. On a weekly basis I posted predictions and
analysis for 3 to 5 selected games per week against the spread,
with a decent amount of success in spotting underdogs with outright
win potential. I like to consider my eye for underdog selections
as "Trap Game training" for LMS.
I've been playing fantasy football since the pre-Web
era (what the heck did I do with my time back then?), and the
first internet league I joined was actually run completely via
e-mail. I can't forget the time-consuming process of creating
my "pick lists" of players to send to the commissioner
after he'd e-mail out the team picks one or two rounds at a time
night after night. As for skeletons in my FFL closet, I once drafted
Redskins mega-bust QB Heath Shuler for my team ... I guess my
FF existence could only improve from that point forward.
Question #2: Matthew Schiff and Mike Krueger
will be the judges of this contest. You may address them both
in this space as sycophantically as you like. Alternatively, you
can take the high road by reviewing the Week 3 column and explaining
which of your competitors seems to you to be the strongest candidate.
Spotlight on Walt Kindelberger:
I can't imagine how a "job" that offers
the benefits that this one does (see Week
3's Q&A column for a refresher) shouldn't have me on my
knees offering to do dog tricks for Mr. Schiff and Mr. Krueger.
However, since that is a visual that no one wants to contemplate
for too long, I will instead take the high road and tell you why
Jeff DuBransky appears to be my strongest competitor.
Jeff did a good job with his week #3 picks. The bonus trap game
call of Jacksonville over Indy was a great one. It would have
been easy to pick Indy in that contest. They were at home; they
needed a win in their new building; the Jags got manhandled by
the Bills the week before, etc. But as Jeff said, the Jags have
been playing the Colts tough lately. Jeff's other trap game call
didn't work out as well, considering San Diego walked all over
the Jets, but his reasoning was sound. Can any of you truly say
you would trust a Norv Turner team in that situation?
The reasoning behind his other picks was also sound. At the time
the picks were due, Tavaris Jackson was still starting for the
Vikes, and he made the call that he wouldn't be long for the job,
so give him a pass on that one. Atlanta and the G-Men were solid
calls, although the Bengals almost made us all look silly.
Lastly, I found Jeff to be the most entertaining read of my competitors.
When such phrases as “kills a misguided seagull,”
“more player issues than Burt Reynold's team,” and
“Chris Henry for NFL Man of the Year,” all appear
in a 5-paragraph span, something interesting must have been said.
Spotlight on Doug Lecorchick
Matt/Mike, Thanks for what you continue to do with
FFToday! But to get down to business, I went 3-1 on my Week 3
picks, and my explanations were dead on. I called the trap game
and even the final score, plus I blew up on my #3 and #1 locks.
I am waiting to hear from you guys about putting a small section
on point spreads. I would love to help in any way I can with that!
That is my forte.
As for others in Week #3; Walt Kindelberger has a solid day, and
he also called a nice trap game. I think he was the most accurate
on the board in Week #3.
Spotlight on Marc Mondry:
I’m going to take option number 3 and
address Matthew and Mike without performing metaphorical fellatio.
I have a suggestion for how I think this column should turn out.
I don’t think it should be a one-writer column.
I think it should be multiple writers, ideally 3. There are several
reasons for this suggestion.
1. Most readers won’t fully trust the opinion
of one random guy you select to write the column. More writers
= more information = necessarily better. Along those lines, why
do we trust 99% of the stuff written on fantasy football websites.
[Heck,] I am picking equal or better than 80% of the ESPN staff;
most of them are barely above average. See my soap box.
2. You could do a lot of creative things with multiple
writers...
a. Have each writer fill an archetypal role (conservative picks,
aggressive early season picks, ‘fly by the seat of your
pants’ picks, etc.);
b. You could have writers respond to each other—e.g. submit
picks Wednesday, and by Friday have each writer draft a paragraph
response/counter to each of the other writers – more days
of info, and certainly more perspectives;
c. All kinds of other fun stuff I don’t have time to think
of right now.
Spotlight on Scott Morrison:
Specifically in honor of Matthew Schiff, one of
the greatest LMS prognosticators ever to grace the pages of a
website, I took it upon myself to model his "dumpy #2 pick"
genius of 2007 with my selection of New England in that spot in
Week 3. He's taught us that real LMS experts make their mark with
superb picks in the 1 and 3 positions. And speaking of experts,
we can all point to Mike Krueger, elite FFL-er extraordinaire
and founding father of FFToday (the web's best FF resource) as
a conqueror of feats that we mortals can only deem 'heroic'.
Question 3: The two strategy points that Mike
Davis stresses in the LMS portion of the column are 1) to avoid
divisional matchups; and 2) to concentrate on favorites playing
at home. Do you buy into those guidelines, or are they misleading
oversimplifications?
Spotlight on Walt Kindelberger:
K.I.S.S (keep it simple stupid) is a fabulous principle
to keep in mind. These points are not oversimplifications; they
are excellent starting points for evaluation of the games, and
often all that are needed. A look back at week #3 will show you
how successful a simple strategy can be. Picking based solely
on these two guidelines would have yielded either an 8-1 or 9-1
record (I don't know whether Minnesota was favored in their game).
Week #4, however, exposes the limitations of such a simple strategy.
Week #4's slate offers many fewer opportunities that fit the strategy
criteria. So even though those will still be good guidelines to
start with, we will have to dig deeper to find the safest picks.
Spotlight on Doug Lecorchick:
In short they are misleading; division matchups
are teams more familiar with each other than any other teams,
hence giving handicappers more components to determine in regard
to the spread. Although we are not talking about spreads, the
same applies to eliminator picks. Favorites playing at home are
decent guidelines, except for teams like the G-men. Some teams
seem to play better on the road. I wouldn’t put my money
on guidelines though.
Spotlight on Marc Mondry:
1. As for divisional matchups, I 100% buy into
this guideline. I’m a Giants and a Mets fan, and I have
seen more upsets in the NFC East and the NL East than I can care
to remember (most of them not in my favor). That being said, I
[you sometimes have to resort to divisional contests] out of sheer
fear of most of the other matchups.
There are way more elements of the game that come
into play with divisional matchups, most of which are much harder
to gauge than personnel (including history between coaches and
coordinators). Also, some teams just play well against certain
division opponents, e.g. Dolphins vs. Pats and Jags vs. Colts.
2. And as for favorites with home field advantage,
I buy into this one about 50%. Yes, favorites at home are usually
good picks, but I think people put a tad bit too much emphasis
on home-field advantage.
In an eliminator competition, home field advantage
is very helpful for deciding between two close calls, but how
often do you really want to be making close calls in an eliminator?
Down the stretch this is much more important, assuming you haven’t
planned out your picks for each week.
Spotlight on Scott Morrison:
Those are solid guidelines, and I typically aim
to abide by them with all but the very best or very worst clubs.
Teams that are tracking to 12-4 or better are capable of road
wins versus most opponents. Likewise, a club tracking to 4-12
or worse will often lose anytime, anywhere. However if I am going
to select a team that runs counter to either of those strategy
points (as in Week 4, when I took 2 division matchups), I'll also
want to find matchup positives in the strengths/weaknesses between
the opponents.
Question #4: Is there another strategy point
(aside from the divisional matchups/home-field advantage points
discussed above) that you would want to stress in your LMS projections?
Spotlight on Walt Kindelberger:
Another strategy point that I look at is the "Hunger
Factor". In the parity-filled modern NFL, one team's desire,
or lack thereof, can often be a telling factor in who wins, or
at least how competitive a game might be. This is not a strategy
that can be applied to every game, but it will be in play every
week. The following teams all had the "Hunger Factor"
on their side in week #3: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Miami, San Francisco
(Mike Martz's revenge), Cleveland, Jacksonville, Philadelphia,
and San Diego. Those teams all wanted or needed a win badly, and
they went a combined 6-2. I ignored the "Hunger Factor"
last week in the Giants - Bengals game because I thought Cincy
had quit on Marvin Lewis, but clearly that wasn't the case and
they came ready to play and almost pulled the upset.
Spotlight on Doug Lecorchick:
Into the mind of Doug Lecorchick III . . . hmmm,
where to start? In eliminator style picking, exploit the running
game! Weak run defenses vs. strong running teams always catch
my eye. Teams that keep the rock on the ground for most of the
game usually find that clock management falls on their side as
well as turnover ratios. I love sitting on a dog with a strong
run game.
Spotlight on Marc Mondry:
I always stress defense paired with a strong running
game. These are your bread and butter eliminator teams. That’s
why the Titans are going to be picked over and over again this
year. High flying passing attacks (Denver, New Orleans) carry
with them an inherent variability that you don’t usually
see with overpowering defenses and strong running games. (See
New Orleans vs. Washington, Week 2.)
Teams that perennially fit into this mold (New England before
Moss/Welker, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Jacksonville, New York Giants)
generally make for solid, low-risk eliminator plays when they
have favorable matchups. They control the game and keep opposing
offenses off the field. And they generally win championships.
Look at the last 10 Superbowls and ask yourself, “Did that
team have a strong running game? Did they have a strong defense?”
The answer is almost always yes to both questions.
There are going to be some teams this year that didn’t
always fit the defense/running game mold. Atlanta immediately
comes to mind – they’re not a “powerhouse”
team, but they will make for great plays at times. Look at what
that defense and running game did to Kansas City. There was no
way Atlanta was coming out of that game with a loss, and it was
all because of running and defense.
Spotlight on Scott Morrison:
Without a doubt I would emphasize the concept that
a team's most recent performances MUST carry an inordinate amount
of weight in predicting winners in the LMS format. The competitive
balance in the NFL is so delicate that a key team injury (or conversely,
the unexpected rise of a young player at a formerly weak position)
can completely change a team's competitiveness for a number of
weeks. Look at what the early offensive line injuries have done
to the Colts and Jaguars. Both were considered Super Bowl worthy
before the season began, but they have been mediocre thus far
this year. I try to ensure that I am closely tracking each team's
recent performances.
Question #5: Pick your soapbox. Get up on the
soapbox of your choosing (as long as it relates to football in
some way), and give us an insightful or entertaining taste of
your writing style and reasoning process.
Spotlight on Walt Kindelberger:
So many soapboxes to choose from and so little
column...
Do I target Phil Simms and other stodgy media types for not getting
on the Fantasy train? No, Bill Simmons covered that extensively
in his Sports Guy column on espn.com last week.
How about targeting the Sports Programming Executives who still
can't grasp the concept that their events will all draw more viewers
if not scheduled against each other? It was almost criminal that
we had to choose between the final day of the Ryder Cup or NFL
Football last week. No, it seems ungrateful to complain about
too much sports coverage on TV.
How about taking aim at FFtoday.com, who decided not to have Matt
Waldman compete in the FFTOC this year? This one is compelling
since I would be providing unasked for and likely unwanted ombudsman-like
comments, while being able to hide them in a column under someone
else's byline. Alas, the damage has been done there and won't
be helped by my pointing out that the FFTOC is the fairest fantasy
competition available, and that Matt's comments on it were very
well done. So, no.
My soapbox of choice is making the case for Football as an Olympic
sport. The NFL should have lobbyists working on this full time.
What else would increase the international interest in the sport
faster than making it an Olympic event? If water polo, team handball,
and field hockey all make the grade, why not football?
The bonus is that the U.S. would dominate for at least the next
10 Olympics, and probably longer, before ever being challenged.
Which one of you wouldn't watch Team USA featuring Brady, Moss,
Owens, Tomlinson, Gates, etc. rolling it up against a team from
France? They would have to institute a mercy rule. We need to
get this done. Canada would be all for it since they would be
almost guaranteed the silver for the next 10 Olympiads.
Realistically though, this has no chance of happening. The greedy
owners and players would never be able to agree on how to split
the newly found revenue streams, not to mention that pesky little
Olympic rule that outlaws performance enhancing drugs in a meaningful
and enforceable way. Alas! Those are soapboxes for another day.
Spotlight on Doug Lecorchick:
Everybody loves lists, so to make some money, be
entertained and earn experience in capping football games, follow
my top 5 list on How to Survive Capping Football:
1. Use a 4-team tier system each block. (4 early games / 4 late
games);
2. No parlays or teasers on Sunday;
3. Place weights on the tiers and bet units relative to the weight;
4. Bank roll half of the winnings from the previous block;
5. Read Doug Lecorchick III’s blog on FFToday…I will
win with you or sink with the ship.
Spotlight on Marc Mondry:
You know what really grinds my gears?
People that read fantasy websites and assume that everything
written is channeled through the writer directly from the mouth
of God. Wake up! These “experts” don’t know
anything more than the avid fantasy football fan. Half of the
ESPN Fantasy Editorial Group is picking games against the spread
at the 56th percentile or lower. That means that 44 percent of
all the crazies that are picking games against the spread on ESPN
are picking better than HALF of the “experts”. These
people get paid to be average – sweet job.
Don’t get me wrong; fantasy football websites and articles
are great. They occupy a large chuck of my life every single day
of the football season.
HOWEVER, don’t take them as gospel. Learn from them, gather
information, compare perspectives, and make an informed decision
for yourself!
There is an absolute treasure trove of information on fantasy
websites – accompanied by a whole bunch of garbage opinions,
with very few exceptions (the staff here, for example J).
You know this game. You’ve spent hours poring over computer
screens, looking at statistics, agonizing over trades, willing
out that 2 point victory. Read, learn, decide for yourself, and
win.
Back to you, Tom.
(Those of you that got the Family Guy reference before now, thank
you for being you).
Spotlight on Scott Morrison:
Why is the NFL still using first-down measurement
chains? This sports league is the clear leader in using technology
to improve the game and the fan experience -- NFL films, the coaches’
headsets, instant replay, the in-helmet mikes, the NFL Network
-- and yet we're determining if LT gets a crucial playoff first
down with gear that could have been borrowed from your kid's Midget
League game. Hey, metal chains are great for securing prisoners
in a feudal lord's dungeon or to help deflect a nasty whack from
the next medieval battleaxe that you encounter, but they've got
no place in the NFL in 2008. Other than being sideline fodder
for those "chain gang bowling" blooper clips, when do
you enjoy watching this clunky crew? An insightful football commentator
once called the ball spotting and chain stretching routine “a
very precise measurement of a completely arbitrary ball placement.”
Bingo. The entire process is akin to having your carpet installer
guesstimate the room measurements by looking in your windows,
then cutting the rug with a laser accurate to a thousandth of
an inch. Not so effective.
How do we reach the end of our chains and bring about improvement?
Use 20-year-old grocery store technology. Embed a chip or an RFID
tag in the lining of the ball and, wire up the length of the field
with those electronic finish line beams that are used in track
and field. Beep! It's a first down or maybe that critical TD at
the goal line. No beep means no dice. Everyone is spared the chain
stretching ceremony (not to mention 75% of the lengthy challenge-replay
ordeals). And think of the viewer possibilities ... crank up the
beep sound ("to eleven!") for the crowd at the stadium
and auto-splash "First Down" on the scoreboard. Let
the networks match it up with that yellow TV first-down line and
watch the stripe turn first-down green on the big screen! Then
-- and only then -- will the NFL break free from the chains that
bind us all.
I hope that readers have enjoyed getting to know our contestants
as much as I have. I’m certainly looking forward to finding
out which contestants will gain ground (and which ones will lose
ground) as the Week 5 games play out.
If readers of this column want to make a case for the prognosticator
they think is best suited to take over for Matthew Schiff, I’ll
be happy to include some reviews from readers (as long as they
aren’t the parents, spouses, or children of any of our contestants)
in next week’s column.
Whether you have a favorite contestant or not, you will want
to consult next week’s column to find out which of our participants
will survive the upcoming “Krueger cut.” Mike Krueger
has given me no indication of how drastically he will reduce our
number of competitors. Theoretically, he could put all 8 names
on the short list that will be submitted to Matthew Schiff, but
I know Krueger a little bit, and I wouldn’t count on it.
The eight writers who have made it this far all have my gratitude
for their willingness to share their football savvy as well as
their dedication to this rather lengthy audition. Please take
what you can from their predictions for Week 5 below.
Michael Bode's Picks:
Trap Game: Atlanta over Green Bay
Most readers will think this pick is based solely on the fact
that Rodgers is banged up, but that is only part of the reason.
Green Bay's defense is allowing an atrocious 5.2 yards per carry,
which will allow the Falcons to keep to their strengths (the legs
of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood). If Matt Flynn has to start,
then Ryan Grant is going to have to find a way to play through
his hamstring injury better if the Packers are to pull this one
out.
Trap Game II: Detroit over Chicago
Tampa Bay showed that the way to beat Chicago is through the air
as the Bears struggle to put pressure on the QB, which puts undue
stress on their secondary. Detroit's strength is their WR corps,
but they struggle to protect Jon Kitna. If Detroit can manage
to protect him, Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams should be able
to find openings. The Lions, however, are horrible at defending
the run, so they must do everything in their power to stop Matt
Forte and hope they can prevent Kyle Orton from beating them.
Basically, Detroit is the home team in a divisional matchup in
which their strength (passing the football) meets up with their
opponent’s weakness (defending the pass). It is the same
formula that the Chiefs used last week to beat the Broncos.
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh (Past picks:
minnesota; philadelphia)
This game is part of a burgeoning NFL rivalry after last year’s
two games, both of which were won by the Jaguars in Pittsburgh.
This game, however, is in Jacksonville. That’s one bonus
for the Jags; another is that Parker and Mendenhall are likely
out for this game; a third is that Roethlisburger is still nursing
assorted injuries. The Jaguars should be able to shut down the
Steeler running game, which will allow them to pin their ears
back and attack Roethlisburger. On offense, the Steelers have
been allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, but Garrard knows how
to take advantage of the over-aggressive nature of the Dick Lebeau
defense by rolling out and using Maurice Jones-Drew on screens.
Carolina over Kansas City (Past picks:
BUFFALO; JAX)
Not only did the Chiefs just win their Superbowl by taking it
to the Broncos, but the Panthers have allowed just 1 TD. On the
other side of the ball, Jonathan Stewart is in line for a big
game against the Chiefs’ 2nd-worst NFL running defense (5.3
yards per carry). This is the exact type of game for which John
Fox lives.
Dallas over Cincinnati (Past pick: NYG;
denver)
The one area in which the Bengals have done well this year is
defending the pass. Unfortunately for them, the Cowboys have vowed
to rededicate themselves to the ground, but the Cowboys have so
many weapons in the passing game that the Bengals will have trouble
keeping up with them there too. Moreover, even if Palmer plays,
the Bengals’ OL has struggled to protect whoever is throwing
for them, and DeMarcus Ware figures to have a big game.
Anthony Catalano’s Picks
What a week! Denver and Dallas (both big favorites) suffered upsets.
It goes to show you anybody can win on any given weekend, and
unpredictability is one of the things I love most about football.
That's what makes picking these games week in and week out so
difficult; it is no easy task for anyone.
Trap Game: San Francisco over New England
New England comes in as a 3-point favorite, but the Pats are traveling
across the country. They are not the same team without Tom Brady.
Against Miami they didn't even attempt one deep pass. Will SF
use the wildcat offense that Miami used? JT O'Sulivan has been
playing well under Mike Martz, and Frank Gore could lead the league
in yards from scrimmage this year. This could be a close game
at the end.
#3 Green Bay over Atlanta (Past picks:
new england, denver)
Keep an eye on Aaron Rodgers’ injury. All indications out
of Packer camp are that he should be ready to play. He and Greg
Jennings are finding a nice groove. Jennings leads the league
in receiving yardage (482) and got in the end zone twice this
week for his first scores of the season. Look for Ryan Grant to
finally get going in this game as Atlanta is giving up over 130
yds on the ground. Michael Turner for Atlanta has been solid at
home on turf, but has struggled on the road on grass. He has only
rushed for 42 (at Tampa) and 56 yds (at Carolina).
#2 Chicago over Detroit (Past picks: BUFFALO,
SAN DIEGO)
Kyle Orton has played well the last 2 weeks against 2 good defenses
(5 tds and 477 yards with 4 picks). Look for this productivity
to continue against a Lion team that is is dead last in defense
(giving up an average of 430 yds per game). Matt Forte has been
a nice addition, averaging almost 4 yds per carry. The Lions have
shown on offense they can put up points, but Kitna has been erratic
(throwing 5 picks in 3 games). It looks like Rudi Johnson has
taken over the starting role at RB for them, and this should help
their running game. It still won't be enough to win this game.
#1 New Orleans over Minnesota (Past
picks: NYG, dallas)
Drew Brees has thrown for over 1300 yards and 8 tds through the
first 4 games. It appears it doesn't matter who his receivers
are (as they are all catching the ball). Minnesota has only 2
picks all year; they are giving up 220 yards in the passing game
as well as giving up 8 plays of 20 yards or more. I look for the
Saints to try and stretch the field and go for the big play. The
Vikings have Adrian Peterson (one of the top RBs in the game),
but they won't be able to keep up with the scoring. They don't
have the passing game the Saints have, and if they fall behind
they will be forced into throwing the ball more than they would
like, which does not bode well for them.
Spencer Coffey’s Picks:
Trap Game: Seattle over NY Giants
The Giants seemed a little off despite their OT win over Cincinnati
two weeks ago. Seattle has won its last four games over NFC East
opponents and ignoring the "due" theory. Tom Coughlin
is 0-4 against the Seahawks in his career.
#3 San Diego over Miami (Past Picks:
DENVER, TAMPA BAY)
All of the play makers for the Chargers are starting to strut
their stuff, and it will be on display in Miami this week. This
should be an easy win, but there are better opportunities to make
them the number one pick in November and December.
#2 Jacksonville over Pittsburgh (Past
Picks: kansas city, BUFFALO)
Although no team gets truly healthy during the regular season,
here is a case where the Jaguars have had a few games to adjust
to their injuries and the Steelers are going into this game with
two straight weeks of key losses to their starting offense and
defense.
#1 Green Bay over Atlanta (Past Picks:
SF, CAROLINA)
If you want to stay standing, this is the week to pick the Packers.
With a bye week in the middle, three of their next four games
are on the road. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn't play, the Packers
are the better team and will prevail at home.
Jeff DuBransky’s Picks
Trap Game: Detroit over Chicago
According to news coming out of Detroit, the Lions are reportedly
feeling like wrongly-convicted prisoners who have finally been
freed after seven years in jail. If they've ever had a reason
to come out fired up and ready to play, it's this week. In come
the Bears (who are average at best on offense). And on defense,
though Chicago may be stifling against the run, the Lions don't
run anyway, and the Bears have already been beaten badly through
the air twice. Kitna, Roy Williams and the rest of the liberated
Lions will feed off the joy of the city of Detroit and get their
first win.
#3: Carolina over Kansas City (Past
picks: ATLANTA, BUFFALO)
OK, the Chiefs pulled off the shocker at home, against the even
more pathetic than originally thought defense of the Broncos,
and because of four ugly turnovers by Denver. This week Kansas
City is on the road (bad news), the Panthers have the eighth-rated
defense in the league (worse news), and Carolina has only four
turnovers all season (the worst news). Welcome back to a season
of double-digit losses, KC.
#2: Indianapolis over Houston (Past
picks: Carolina, Dallas)
Coming out of a bye week that allowed his team to refocus and
get a little more healthy, there is absolutely, positively, no
way in the world Peyton Manning will allow his team to come out
of this week with a 1-3 record. Fortunately for Peyton and the
rest of the Colts, the Texans just won't have a whole lot of say
in the matter either (25th in the league in points per game with
18.7 and 3rd to last in points allowed per game with 33).
#1: Dallas over Cincinatti (Past picks:
NEW YORK GIANTS, Denver)
T.O.'s whining has Romo a little shaken, and the pressure will
be there to satisfy Owens with 35 or 40 looks this week, since
20 wasn't enough last week. Many teams would be able to use this
knowledge to devise a defensive strategy that would result in
a nightmare for Dallas. Luckily for Romo and the Cowboys, in come
the Bengals with a dinged-up Palmer and their bumbling defense.
Cincy is more than capable of helping T.O. find his happy place
again.
Walt Kindelberger’s Picks:
As I warned, last week was a rough one to say the least. The
Dallas and Denver games took down a lot of good players, so a
big "Congratulations" to you if you were one of the
survivors. My call of Houston in the Trap Game last week was a
good one, but beyond that things were ugly. The next 3 or 4 weeks
look considerably more attractive, with fewer divisional games
and some attractive matchups to look forward to.
Trap Game: Detroit over Chicago
Chicago has looked solid this year, so this pick is not so much
a knock on them as it is a knock on Matt Millen. Having the weight
of Matt Millen and the debacle that the last 7 years has been
finally lifted off the shoulders of the Lions should give them
a lift. Detroit is not devoid of talent (particularly on offense),
so the Lions should be able to keep pace with a Chicago team that
(let’s face it) is still led by a less than solid Kyle Orton.
Look for the upset in this one.
#3: Carolina over Kansas City (Past
picks: ATLANTA, dallas)
I like all of this week's picks better than any of last week's
picks, so even though Carolina lands here in the #3 spot, I still
like this pick a lot. Kansas City is still a young, bad team.
They just got lucky last week at home and caught a defenseless
divisional rival on a bad day. Look for Carolina's offense to
impose its will early and often against an overmatched Kansas
City defense. It feels about time for Steve Smith to have one
of his patented big games.
#2: Dallas over Cincinnati (past picks:
BUFFALO, cincinnati)
Both of these teams let me down last week. Dallas inexplicably
decided not to run the ball or even let Felix Jones touch it,
and Cincinnati was done in as soon as Carson Palmer surprised
everyone by not playing. This week I think Wade Phillips and Jason
Garrett get the Dallas offense back on track and run it up against
a defense that has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. Palmer
plans to play, but there remains a lot of concern regarding his
elbow. The inflammation that had him out last week has not receded,
so there is every chance that even if he starts he won't finish
the game.
#1: Green Bay over Atlanta (Past picks:
NYG, denver)
Atlanta has looked good at home this year, but going on the road,
especially to a place like Green Bay, with a rookie QB is an altogether
different story. Indications are that Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder
will not keep him off the field. His presence is vital to this
pick and Green Bay's season, and if they were really concerned
with his shoulder you would be seeing veteran QBs in for work
outs this week in Green Bay. Atlanta will likely exhibit their
strong rushing attack and hit a big play, but it won't be enough
to keep up with Green Bay in their own house. I look for Green
Bay to win this one going away.
Doug Lecorchick’s Picks
Trap Game: Washington over Philadelphia
Washington can slow the pace of a football game down enough to
put opposing offenses into a coma, and that is what the game plan
will be against the Eagles. Portis should be able to gain a decent
showing, and that should open up some lanes for Campbell. Philly
plays best in fast-paced contests, and this will not be one of
them.
#3: New York Giants over Seattle (TENNESSEE,
NEW ORLEANS)
The Gmen will apply constant pressure on Hasselbeck testing his
freshly-recovered-from-injury receiving corps of Branch and Engram.
I look for the Giants to win the turnover ratio roughly 3:1. I
don’t see how Seattle will be able to hold the Giants from
scoring on each possession. The Giants should dominate through
the air and finish it off with the big man Brandon Jacobs. Go
G-men all the way in this one.
#2: Arizona over Buffalo (cleveland,
SAN DIEGO)
I know the Cards gave up huge points to the Jets. I know Boldin
is hurting. I know it was a pick fest last week. Still the Cards
will defeat the Bills by a touchdown. Warner should be able to
rest a little in the pocket and start to pick the D apart. The
Bills won’t be able to move the ball on the ground as much
as they would like, forcing them to air it out which screams,
“Pick Baby.” The Cards should jump ahead early and
stay there.
#1: Pittsburgh over Jacksonville (DALLAS,
denver)
The Steelers should be able to attack Garrard from all angles
and test him with a stingy defense. Davenport may be running the
ball for Pittsburgh, and Big Ben may be banged up a bit, but I
see Pittsburgh in a landslide over the Jags here. Troy Polamolu
should be blitzing once every set of downs, and this is how the
Steelers have been successful thus far. I don’t think Jacksonville
will be able to get a lot of momentum going, and the Steelers
can ground and pound once they establish a lead. Go Pittsburgh!
Marc Mondry’s Picks
Pick your favorite four letter expletive. That’s probably
a word I could use to describe my Sunday. I was eliminated from
my LMS competition. The only silver lining, if you can call it
that, is that my second pick would have been Dallas – a
team I watched get absolutely dominated from a prime seat in a
Redskins bar. To add further insult to injury, my beloved Mets
were just embarrassing to watch. Ok, no more whining, I promise.
Trap Game: Atlanta over Green Bay
There are a lot of possible trap game picks this week. Miami over
San Diego is a “sexy” pick. I like Washington over
Philadelphia, and even Houston over Indianapolis. But I’m
going with Atlanta over Green Bay – it’s the 3rd most
popular pick on the ESPN LMS this week. Everything about this
game scares me enough to stay away from Green Bay. Turner the
Burner has been bad against good rush defenses (CAR, TB), but
spectacular against bad rush defenses (DET, KC). Green Bay, allowing
5.3 yards per carry, is safely in the category of ‘bad rush
defenses.’ Add Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder injury, Ryan
Grant’s complete ineffectiveness (<200 yds, 0TDs, 4 games),
and the possibility that untested rookie Matt Flynn might actually
see the field, and this game could very well be a blowout in Atlanta’s
favor.
3. New York Giants over Seattle (Past
picks: SEATTLE, JACKSONVILLE)
I have to roll with my Giants this week, even without Plaxico
Burress. They are coming out fresh off a bye week (just like Seattle)
and have had two weeks to figure out how to best stop the Seattle
offense. Wait a second! That probably took them 15 minutes –
stack the box, stop the run, and get pressure on Matt Hasselbeck.
Seattle will have a miserable time in East Rutherford trying to
stop a dominant Giants rushing attack that is averaging over 5.7
yards per carry. This game could be very one-sided. Hasselbeck
is going to be forced to throw and throw often. The only way they
keep this close is for the Giants’ much maligned secondary
to blow coverage repeatedly. Such a development is possible, but
unlikely, and would probably result in a hole in my apartment
wall (as well as my suffering severe head trauma).
2. Chicago over Detroit (Past picks:
TENNESSEE, dallas)
Every week there seems to be one or two spreads that I just do
not understand. This week, it’s that Chicago is only a 3.5
point favorite over Detroit. The Lions have many troubles, with
Millen fired (actually not a problem at all, but there will likely
be an adjustment period), Rudi Johnson installed as the starting
RB, and a defense that could not stop my sister from scoring.
The Lions are giving up over 400 yards a game, and allowing their
opponents (average offensive teams: ATL, GB, and SF) to score
an average of 38 points per game. On the other side, since when
does Kyle Orton throw TD passes (3 in the first half, against
the Eagles no less, the team that made Ben Roethlisberger look
like Ryan Fitzpatrick in week 3). The Bears’ victory Sunday
night was flat out impressive against a solid Philadelphia squad.
Look for a repeat performance on the road in Detroit.
1. Carolina over Kansas City (Past
picks: BUFFALO, denver)
Picking against the Chiefs after the week that they ruined my
LMS season seems like it might be tempting fate. That being said,
Denver and Carolina are totally opposite teams. Denver needs to
score 30 points to win and lives and dies by Jay Cutler’s
arm, and Carolina wins with defense (Top 10, if not Top 5, in
most statistical categories) and a very strong RB tandem. (See
my strategy tip in spotlight this week – if I could only
remember my own advice.) Again, as I said last week, to beat Kansas
City you have to stop Larry Johnson. Carolina at home is well
equipped to stop him—certainly better than Denver at Arrowhead.
The Panthers have only given up 1 rushing TD in four games.
Scott
Morrison’s Picks:
Whooooshhh! That giant sucking sound that you heard last Sunday
was the vacuum left behind as a huge number of entrants were bounced
from Survival Pools across the globe. It was "D for Disaster"
as the Denver (selected by a stunning 41% of Yahoo entries) and
Dallas upsets hit the masses hard. Having successfully avoided
both of those toxic choices in my selections last week, I'm ready
to tackle Week 5.
Trap Game: Lions over Bears
The woeful Lions actually played a quarter and a half of good
football versus Green Bay in their only home game of the year.
They led the Packers 25-24 in the 4th quarter. The problem was
that in the next 7:41 they gave up 24 points. Ah, but I say that
those were the Matt Millen era Lions that rode that collapsing
horse. Do you remember the home-tough (but road-soft) Wayne Fontes
Lions? After a tumultuous two weeks that pleased the fans, I expect
the Lions to come out strong here. Tampa Bay proved two weeks
ago that the Bears can be beaten through the air. This may be
the case if the Lions can jump out to a lead and not go pass-only
early in the game, as has happened to them in 2008 thus far.
#3: Tennessee over Baltimore (Past
picks: BILLS, packers)
The Titans are quietly pummeling opponents in early 2008 like
a grind-it-out (pre-Moss) Belichick Patriots team: solid defensive
line, solid running game, opportunistic defense. OK, Kerry Collins
is not exactly Tom Brady (on the field or in a mirror), but he
has played well and kept a deep pass threat in the offense. On
the other side of the slate, what have the 2-1 Ravens really proven
to NFL nation? The wins they own are over the Bengals and Browns
in the first two weeks - but that's likely a combined 0-8 pair
if they hadn't played each other in Week 4! Albert Haynesworth
and the Titan defense will prove to be too tough for even a poised
rookie like Ravens QB Joe Flacco.
#2: Carolina over Kansas City (Past
picks: patriots, JAGUARS)
Carolina comes off a solid home win over the Falcons in which
the defense consistently stuffed centerpiece RB Michael Turner
(18 carries, 56 yards) to set the tone. On offense, Jake Delhomme
proved he could pass the Panthers to a win on a day when the running
yards were tough. Muhsin Muhammad re-emerged as a threat, too.
That run/pass offensive versatility will prove to be too much
for the Chiefs, who can't count on scoring like they did last
week against the Denver defense. KC will attempt to establish
the run with their centerpiece RB Larry Johnson, but expect that
the Panther defensive line will keep LJ in check. Bonus prediction:
Tony Gonzalez will break the all-time TE receiving yards mark
in this game, but Shannon Sharpe still will claim that he's better.
#1: Dallas over Cincinnati (Past picks:
GIANTS, PANTHERS)
I know what you're saying: (a)Carson Palmer may play this week
for the Bengals, and (b)they gave the Giants all they could handle
in Week 3, but the bottom line here is that the matchups in the
trenches are strongly in favor of the Cowboys. Look for Marion
Barber III and Felix Jones to run often and well in this one.
The Cowboys' defense was shown to be a bit vulnerable last week
in the loss to the Redskins, but key pieces of the Bengals offense
starting with QB Palmer and WR Number-Number (thought I'd translate)
are not in the best of physical shape. That's not to say that
the Bengals won't put up some points here. I believe they will
score, but unless they strike a deal for Shawn Springs and 5 other
defensive studs this week, I don't they think they can maintain
pace with the Cowboys.
For responses to this week's fantasy
question or to share your LMS picks, please email
me no later than 10 a.m. EST on Wednesdays during the football
season.
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