Back in early July, when I wrote my
first summer column for 2014, I had no idea that Jayson Werra
would be contributing to FFToday specifically under the Daily Fantasy
Sports (DFS) heading. Thanks to his efforts in
late July (an article on general information) and early
August (a follow-up concerning basic strategy), I don't have
to incorporate my own primer concerning DFS here. Instead, I can
direct you to his articles for any background you may need--and
you can return to this column if you're curious about reader responses
to my query about DFS.
I asked if readers shared my impression that whereas traditional
season-long fantasy football is designed to appeal to my inner competitor,
the DFS model is designed to appeal to my inner gambler.
Now that I've had a chance to sift through the feedback to that
question, I realize I should have provided more context. Over the
summer, my inbox was spammed with notices from various DFS tournaments
and websites. I've never done business with the folks at Draft$treet,
but they were eager to let me know that they had been acquired by
DraftKings, which was supposed to be exciting because it meant that
I could win even more money! To my surprise, Matthew Berry, who
usually just spams me with predictable predictions about fantasy
studs and duds, got in on the action by telling me that I, too,
can start winning money as soon as I start playing DFS.
The silly graphics--with overstuffed bags of money, stacks of poker
chips (relevant how, exactly?), and that pesky $ embedded in the
middle of Draft$treet--led me to suspect that DFS is meant to appeal
to the same folks who can't resist buying a lottery ticket on their
way out of a convenience store. The designers of the spamvertisements
in my inbox seemed to think that all it took to get me excited about
something was to promise easy money.
Very few readers of this column shared my view of DFS, but I'll
share the remarks of someone who wrote in under the name Silverado:
[FFers] are all armchair quarterbacks, and fantasy
football lets us prove it, especially for those obsessed who are
in dynasty/keeper leagues. . . . Even redraft leagues (which is
how we all started once upon a time) call out to the inner fan in
us all.
Those daily leagues are a very different demon. As you stated right
off the bat, [they feed into] the inner gambler. There is no being
a fan. There is no camaraderie. There is no fun unless you win,
because let's face it: if you lose, you lose. It hits the compulsive,
win-big addictions that a lot of us have in us.
The two are nothing close to similar.
I don't know much about Silverado except that his email handle probably
isn't his real name. I'm grateful to him for writing in, especially
since his opinion seemed to correspond with my own, but it seems
that he and I may both have jumped to a premature conclusion.
Sure, DFS can be about trying to win a quick buck. But most of the
responses I received to my query were from people who play DFS without
gambling on it. That came as a surprise to me because, of course,
none of the bragging-rights leagues related to DFS had ever spammed
me with requests to join until after I posted the column with my
question.
Right away, I started getting notes from folks who took exception
to my characterization of DFS as a money-grubbing affair. Louis
and Daniel both wanted me to know that they just play DFS for fun.
Bob challenged me to a match on Fantasy Throwdown (a site hosted
by Mike MacGregor, formerly of FFToday, who encourages DFS match-ups
for bragging rights).
I also received a note from Shawn, who explained that the "Weekly
FF League" he manages on an Excel spreadsheet allows him to
compete with as many folks as have time for the contest each week.
Shawn's league can fluctuate between 8 and 20 participants. That
kind of stunning flexibility certainly isn't inherent in the traditional
season-long model.
Shawn's note really got me thinking about the value of the DFS model,
especially since it reached me when I was preparing a column on
owner apathy. DFS offers the perfect solution for owner apathy:
If you don't want to play anymore, don't play.
Also, I have to say that the idea of playing when I have the time
to think about the NFL but opting out during weeks with heavy travel/limited
computer access sounds pretty seductive.
In light of the feedback I received, I'm ready to say that I probably
oversimplified DFS in my July column--and overemphasized the appeal
of making a quick buck in attempting to account for its growing
popularity. My apologies to any DFS enthusiasts whom I may have
offended.
This Week's Question
I'll try to make amends with the DFS community by featuring the
question that Shawn sent in with his remarks about his privately
run weekly league:
[My league] isn’t a true Weekly game like
you can go to Fan Duel for. I just do a private Fantasy Football
League with unlimited number of friends, and every week you pick
the team [that you believe] will have the best week. No Salary Caps,
No 1 Time Usage, No Restrictions (beyond 1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE,1-K,
1-Def, 1-Flex). Multiple owners can have the same players on their
rosters. My issue is that it is all manual on my part for entering
everything in. Do you know of a website where I can build my own
league like this?
Does anyone have a suggestion
for how Shawn can run his league without having to enter everything
into Excel by hand?
Survivor Picks - Week 1 (Courtesy of
Matthew Schiff)
Welcome back to a new Survival Pool season. You have 16 games on
tap this week and the most important thing to do in Week One is
to avoid the upset of the team that is expected to be the “lock”
of the week. My goal this season is to walk you through the logic
of making a decision behind a specific game. I won’t be perfect,
as evidenced by my record below from 2013. But if you listen to
me, you might be able to avoid those games that knock out many of
your opponents in matches that just seem to be “no brainers.”
So let’s get to it.
Trap Game: New England at Miami
Who can forget that fateful day in 2008, when Ronnie Brown took
six snaps in the “wildcat” that produced four, yes four,
touchdowns against an unprepared and shocked Patriots defense. Since
then, Bill Belichick, has gone 9-2 vs. the Fins, but this week the
Pats are on the road against a new coaching staff in Miami that
may have some new stunts ready for deployment. The perennial division
champs should be avoided in this Week 1 contest, which is when Coach
Belichick has a tendency to forget that it’s the regular season
and doesn’t have his team play up to its potential. While
the Dolphins aren't scary on paper, the additions of Knowshon Moreno
and the commitment to utilize Mike Wallace in multiple sets both
give this writer pause on a game that would normally be an automatic
pick in your annual Survival Pool.
Image by Tilt Creative (Ty Schiff)
#3: Pittsburgh over Cleveland (2013 Season
13-4):
This game screams upset. As the head coach of the Steelers, how
do you convince the team to focus after your number one and number
two running backs get busted for marijuana possession during the
preseason? LeGarrette Blunt and Le’Veon Bell are awaiting
disciplinary action from the NFL for their arrests, but they will
be active for Sunday’s game along with such stars as Antonio
Brown and Ben Rothlisberger. As for the Browns, Brian Hoyer is expected
under center as he is the “traditional” quarterback
and the NFL rarely deviates from the 6’-plus quarterback prototype.
That said, don’t be surprised if you see Johnny Manziel take
the field sometime during the game to provide some of the college
heroics that he is known for (and to get the Browns faithful excited).
Cleveland will be fun to watch this year and will definitely improve
on a disappointing 4-12 record from 2013. But is the first Brown
victory likely to come against a divisional foe in Week 1? I don’t
think so. As such, if you don’t trust either of my picks below,
this is your best bet to make sure that you make it to Week 2 in
your survival pool. Aren’t the first few weeks about avoiding
the “gotcha” and not making a statement? Too many league
pools have been lost on those sexy double-digit handicaps, which
are far more likely to be sucker bets designed by oddsmakers than
genuine indicators of which team has the best chance of winning
in a given week.
#2: Chicago over Buffalo (2013 Season 13-5):
Jay Cutler is back under center after a season-ending groin injury
that allowed Josh McCown to showcase his talents in 2013 and land
a full-time starting gig with Tampa in 2014. The Chicago offense
is probably one of the most explosive and well-rounded units in
the NFC in 2014 with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey at wide
receiver, Matt Forte at running back and Martellus Bennett at tight
end. They bring Josh Morgan and 2008 Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes
as their third and fourth weapons in the spread offense that would
challenge any defense, especially a Bills defense that was ranked
28th against the pass in 2013. The Bears should be able to win games
against capable offenses, and there's no reason to think that the
Buffalo offense is capable of much. EJ Manuel has been less than
perfect in the preseason, and fans are questioning whether he can
be the franchise quarterback for Buffalo that they had hoped for
when he was drafted. While C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson have been
admirable over the last two seasons, Bryce Brown was acquired from
Philadelphia and may end up being the starting running back before
the midway point this season (you heard it here first). Look for
Chicago to put eight in the box and dare the Bills to throw all
day. Manuel has yet to prove that he can win a game, and Buffalo's
new wideout Sammy Watkins (injured ribs) is expected to be in street
clothes in spite of practicing this week. Worse yet for the Bills,
they won't have Steve Johnson to fall back on, as he is now catching
passes in San Francisco.
#1: Philadelphia over Jacksonville (2013
Season 12-5):
Those who have paid attention to my column over the years know
that the Eagles, my hometown team, are the one team that I try
to avoid “like the plague.” I am a NY Football Giants
fan, and a very realistic one at that (case in point – they
are not in my column this week because they don’t deserve
to be). But for me to take the E-A-G-L-E-S, EAGLES in Week 1,
something has to be screaming “LOCK.” The key to this
lock isn't in Philadelphia; it's somewhere in the Jaguar locker
room, as Jacksonville is a work in progress. It’s only a
matter of time until Blake Bortles is given the keys to this offense
which is truly “offensive.” With Justin Blackmon suspended
for one year for substance abuse and Cecil Shorts limited by a
hamstring injury, what does the Philadelphia secondary have to
worry about? Maybe they should help out the Jaguar defense, which
will have its hands full trying to contain LeSean “Shady”
McCoy, who is anticipated to be the number one fantasy running
back in 2014. It won’t get any easier for this Eagles team
this year than Week 1, so take them and put it in pen. Too all
my Eagles faithful, don’t fail me now…
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999.
As a landlocked Oklahoman who longs for the sound of ocean waves,
he also writes about ocean colonization under the pen name Studio
Dongo. The latest installment in his science fiction series can
be found here.
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