When you learned that Ezekiel Elliott had tested positive for COVID-19,
how did you respond? Perhaps, like Dr. Jene Bramel of Footballguys.com,
you thought, “Well, it wasn’t statistically possible
for us to get to the season--much less through it--without some
players testing positive.” Perhaps, like anyone who owns Elliott
in a keeper/dynasty format, you thought, “Hooray! This means
he can self-isolate now instead of missing starts during the regular
season.” But whatever you may have thought, it probably wasn’t,
“I hope he finds a way to pull through”--because the
reality is you have little reason to suppose a world class athlete
in his 20s is in any danger from a virus that isn’t anywhere
near as terrifying as Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College model
led us to believe back in February.
We in the fantasy community are perhaps uniquely poised to appreciate
the problems in Ferguson’s model and the silliness of the
government officials and media spokespeople who continue (in June!)
to cling to this deeply flawed projection that remains at odds
with reality. Fantasy enthusiasts discard faulty projections every
year. We might spend a few weeks attempting to ignore the evidence
that we were wrong about Justice Hill fitting right into the Baltimore
scheme or Cam Newton bouncing back from injury for a career year
in 2019, but eventually, we must come to terms with reality and
adjust our expectations. (Okay, maybe those were my mistakes,
not yours--but you take my point).
Back in February, Ferguson’s team at Imperial College took
a snapshot of data about COVID that made it look as dangerous
as Sammy Watkins in Week 1 of the 2019 season, when he racked
up 198 yards and 3 TDs. Ferguson’s extrapolations from this
preliminary data were just as jaw-dropping as it was for owners
of Watkins to extrapolate a 48 TD, 3200-yard season for the WR
based on the snapshot from Week 1. But just as Watkins failed
to deliver a single TD or to rack up even a third as much yardage
in any regular season contest for the remainder of 2019, Ferguson’s
exponential curve and massive death toll failed to materialize.
Unfortunately, people in the real world remain so impressed by
Neil Ferguson’s model that some communities (my own city
of Austin being one) are still following protocols based on the
insane projections he issued in February even though we now have
4 months of real world data contradicting almost every assumption
he made. This is exactly as boneheaded as using the projections
from just before Labor Day to determine who won your fantasy championship
in December. Why pay any attention to what happens in the actual
games? We can just make our predictions, have our drafts, and
immediately crown our winners because we apparently live in a
world in which predictions trump reality.
But even if the world has lost its mind over COVID, there’s
no point in discussing the matter unless the discussion can lead,
in some way, to a solution. But what can we do to help? Perhaps
the most helpful thing we can do is to encourage the world to
stop overreacting to COVID, which should definitely involve a
return of the NFL to business as usual in time for regular season
kickoff for several reasons.
First, real world data tells us that COVID has a vanishingly
small death rate and primarily affects people with comorbidities
over the average age of mortality. The fatality rate is probably
even lower than the latest .26% estimate from the CDC (which is
already an order of magnitude lower than the CFR of Ferguson’s
model). Nobel laureate Michael Levitt calculated a rate of no
greater than .2% in February and tried to make Ferguson understand
why his exponential curve was unrealistic, but Ferguson ignored
him. The more we understand the limitations of our testing protocols,
the more we understand the prevalence of asymptomatic responses.
Second, we can remind people that getting projections wrong is
one of the easiest things in the world to do. No matter how carefully
you thought about Kenyan Drake’s situation at the beginning
of the 2019 season, you probably had no idea that he would end
up 1) being traded to Arizona or 2) outperforming David Johnson
as a Cardinal. Reality is full of curveballs that simply turn
your projections into mush. It’s understandable that most
of us projected certain numbers for Drake when we expected him
to be in Miami; what’s not understandable is refusing to
adjust those numbers after his departure for Arizona. (Our current
panic about a rising number of “cases” even as deaths
continue to diminish seems like a similar sort of hard-headedness
to me.)
Third, we have to use our math skills to understand differences
in context. We know that RBs who catch a lot of short passes are
more useful in PPR leagues than in standard leagues, so we use
that mathematical information to make intelligent choices. (With
COVID, by contrast, even though we knew from the beginning that
elderly people had a huge risk whereas schoolchildren had virtually
no risk, we shut down the schools while forcing the elderly in
certain states to congregate in nursing homes.)
Fourth, we should remind people about the importance of diving
deep into a subject in order to get the most useful information.
CNN and FOX may give you the scores and highlights from the games
on Sunday afternoon, but most of that info will be worthless in
terms of helping you prepare for the waiver wire. That’s what
drives you to sources like FFToday for your news. Similarly, when
it comes to COVID, you should know by now that you’re only going
to get sensationalism and hysteria from the mainstream media.
For real insights, you’ll need to consult specialty sources. Some
of my favorites during COVID have been Ivor Cummins’ Fat Emperor
podcast (here’s
his interview with the aforementioned Levitt) and Freddie
Sayers’ Unherd interviews (especially this
one with Professor Sunetra Gupta). Other notable COVID skeptics
include journalist Alex Berenson and Twitter denizen @EthicalSkeptic.
When you dive into this data, you may be surprised at what you
find. For instance, Neil Ferguson’s model suggested that 100,000
Swedes would die before May if the country didn’t lock down, whereas
only 20,000 would die if it did. Sweden famously refused to lock
down but somehow managed to lose fewer than 3,000 citizens (most
of them in nursing homes, sadly) before May. Tragic as those deaths
are, the total
mortality rate in Sweden from June of ‘19 to May of ‘20 is
actually lower than the average for the 12 years prior.
It’s a surprising graph, but you’ve seen more surprising
graphs than that (such as D.J. Chark’s performance last
year). We’re pretty good at analyzing numbers in fantasy;
we need to start analyzing the data we have about COVID and being
vocal about what it means. It won’t make anyone “safer”
for the 2020 NFL season to be canceled, so if the season ends
up getting canceled, it will be in part because we weren’t
effective enough at using math and logic to help people see the
truth about reality.
So what’s your best elevator pitch for convincing people
that the 2020 NFL games should proceed on schedule? Please email
me your thoughts or post them in the comment section below.
You are also welcome to explain why you think we should continue
hiding indoors until nobody ever dies again--your call.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.