8/26/08
This is my fourth installment in evaluating players based on Fantasy
Point scoring efficiency. I saved the best position for last. The
foundation of your championship hopes. The guys that do all the
work while the QBs
and WRs pose for the
cameras. Running backs can juke a safety to their knees, leaving
them swinging for air or lower a shoulder and posterize a cornerback,
sending them to the infirmary in star speckled daze. They were the
first five taken overall and 14 of the top 22 picks in our staff
draft last night. And it was the not just a mock, it was the
big enchilada, playin’ for keeps as they say, with more pride
on the line than a room full of southern beauty pageant moms.
The key to fantasy scoring is opportunity. Every fantasy player
has at one point wondered what MJD would do if Fred Taylor was gone
and he finally got the rock 275 times. What happens if Deuce can’t
go and Pierre Thomas starts for the Saints this year? All their
preseason projections float right down the river. How would you
rank them? The Fantasy Point Efficiency Rating creates a value so
you can make those estimates. It allows you to make on the fly projections
when players get hurt, lose jobs, and opportunities change.
RB Receiving Targets
It’s important when evaluating RBs to know what scoring
your league uses. Rankings on most sites and magazines are based
on standard scoring rules. It means there are TDs and small yardage
bonuses, but no big play or reception bonuses. I’ve included
a chart below which may be handy in adjusting values for you.
The chart shows the players 2007 receiving totals and the point
differential between standard and PPR scoring in the adjusted
column (ADJ). The Last column is my fantasy point scoring value
per target. They were calculated the same way as my WR
and TE target efficiency
articles. If you didn’t catch those articles, the FPTs/Tar
rating is the amount of fantasy points per target that a player
scored. So if you expect that targeting opportunity to increase
or decrease you can adjust their projection by that amount.
It’s remarkable that in the juggernaut passing offense of
the Patriots Maroney saw such limited action in the passing game
especially considering that he’s more scat back then bruising
power runner. Perhaps the key to Maroney having a breakout year
depends more on increased involvement in the passing game than carries
as he had the highest target efficiency rating (2.1 FPTs/Tar).
Given offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ history I would expect
Frank Gore to improve substantially in this area but his running
totals could decline enough to offset some of that. The same can
be said about Cam Cameron for Willis McGahee. His track record of
pass catching RBs includes LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Ronnie
Brown last season.
RB Rushing Attempts
When evaluating RBs in standard scoring fantasy football the
best way to measure performance efficiency is by adding their
total playmaking opportunities and dividing it by the number of
fantasy points scored. (Rush attempt + pass targets) / total fantasy
points = FPTs/Eff). This figure is a value we can use to make
projections based on opportunity. It can also help us evaluate
how RBs did on a per opportunity basis rather than a season or
game totals. Ryan Grant for example had an excellent year but
he did not play a full season. So the best way to compare his
numbers to other RBs is by a per opportunity value. Below is a
table showing the some top players coming in to 2008 and their
2007 FPTs/Eff.
A Case For First Pick…
Minnesota RBs - It’s not surprising to see the Purple Jesus at
the top of this list. Based on this he was far and away the most
efficient fantasy scorer. What stands out here is Chester
Taylor. The numbers indicate even if Peterson was injured
Taylor would be able to step in and be a top 10 RB. This is a
strong argument for taking A.P. as the first pick in drafts knowing
you need to get Taylor as well. With both players you have one
top starting option every week. I guess we should start calling
Taylor the Purple Disciple…or maybe the Purple Pope?
Undervalued…
Ryan Grant only started 7 games last season. If he saw a modest
33% opportunity increase, putting him near the 300 rush attempt
mark, he would have scored around 210 points. (300 *.70FPTs/Eff)
= 210. This puts him as the 7th best RB overall. He’s being
drafted in the 10-15 range in most drafts which should be an excellent
value.
DeAngelo Williams is having an excellent preseason. You’ll
hear that doesn’t mean anything but that’s not entirely
true. There have been studies done that show the first half of
preseason games can be an effective measure of a team’s
success during the season. If I don’t see much out of Jonathan
Stewart in the final preseason game it’s time to boost Williams’
value a round or even two.
Jamal Lewis
is more successful in the passing game than I would have expected
causing him to have a solid (.65) FPTs/Eff. That’s a bonus for
him if Cleveland gets in a lot of shootouts with their tough schedule.
Another thing I like is that he’ll never see 8 man fronts with
the receiving weapons on that team. He was the 6th best fantasy
back last season and he’s not being drafted in the top 10 because
of his... age (29)? They have an excellent offensive line so even
if he loses half a step he’s still going to be one of the best
RB#2’s available this year.
Overvalued…
Willis McGahee picked the wrong year to have knees issues. Ray
Rice is a stud and will take some opportunity away from McGahee
this year. This is especially true if things go south and they
start to rebuild. The Ravens time as a contender is over and I
think they will start getting their young QB Flacco and Rice some
experience as the season deteriorates.
Edgerrin James required 324 rush attempts (2nd most in the NFL)
and 39 pass targets to achieve 10th rated RB ranking last year.
This year is different, he’s a year older and the Rookie
Hightower may take some carries away, point producing goal line
carries at that.
Julius Jones had poor production efficiency last season in a
better offense with a better offensive line. I’m not sold
on his opportunity increasing as much as people expect in Seattle.
Maurice Morris had a better scoring efficiency last year and is
out playing Jones to this point. Temper your enthusiasm here.
Maybe he gets 200 carries and 50 targets * .47 FPTs/Eff for 117
points which would make him a poor starting option and the 32
best RB overall last year.
As I’ve mentioned before even if you disagree with the assumptions
I’ve made here, which is absurd, you can still use the rating
system to draw your own conclusions. It’s a handy tool for adjusting
players ranking as opportunities change. They always do. If you're
scouting a player or handcuff use FFtoday's
stats to provide you all the information you need to make
your own rating for players I did not list above. If you that’s
too much homework for you then below is a list of top handcuffs.
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