2015 will mark Drew Brees’ 10th season in New Orleans and 15th
season in the NFL. Last year, he failed to reach 5,000 passing
yards for the first time since 2010. That is also the last time
he “only” threw 33 touchdown passes. It seems logical to expect
Brees’ numbers to decline even more this year even before accounting
for the losses of Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills on offense. Yet
the so-called decline he experienced may simply be the result
of what he lost last year. Had Brandin Cooks not been lost to
injury, the rookie may have continued to pace all Saints receivers
for the rest of the year. Had Graham been healthier, there is
a good chance he would have finished with a few more touchdowns
and hit all of his usual marks. Was losing Darren Sproles prior
to 2014 insignificant? The team brought in C.J. Spiller to infuse
that pass-catching threat out of the backfield back into the offense.
Cooks is healthy and gaining confidence each week as he proves
himself to be amongst the NFL’s most dangerous young receivers.
A more suitable role for the aging Marques Colston and more respectable
rushing attack add further reason for optimism in this offense.
He is currently slipping into the fifth round of 12-team redraft
leagues and remains a cut above the rest of the pack. Luke McCown
returns for his second season with the Saints. He will be the
primary backup to Brees, but 2015 third-rounder Garrett Grayson
appears to be the team’s choice to develop as the heir to the
throne once Brees retires.
RB Mark
Ingram (2014 RB Rank – No.15, 12.7 FPts/G)
If not for hand and knee injuries, Mark Ingram would have likely
finished as a top-10fantasy running back in 2014. That is why
the team inked him to a new four-year deal, despite the fact he
failed to produce in the first three years of his career. With
little competition for carries and a team hoping to lean on a
more effective rushing game, Ingram provides plenty of RB2 upside
despite being an injury risk. His YPC has always been strong and
he should be able to build upon last season’s 4.3 YPC mark if
the team commits to one primary rusher. Unlike many other NFL
backfields, Ingram shouldn’t lose many touches to other runners,
especially near the goal line. C.J. Spiller is a capable second-string
runner, but he will complement Ingram more than he competes with
him for touches in this offense. Further down the depth chart,
Khiry Robinson adds even more pressure and motivation for Ingram
to match or exceed his totals from a year ago in the first year
of his new deal. He also has the ability to pad his stats with
a couple of catches per game, but he may not be asked to do as
much this season with Spiller in the fold.
RB C.J.
Spiller (2014 RB Rank – No.71, 5.4 FPts/G)
New Orleans is an interesting place for C.J. Spiller to land,
and I mean that in a good way. The changes are vast for Spiller
as he heads to a dome in the South, leaving an outdoor stadium
in the North. He goes to an offense that features an elite quarterback
and head coach that are far more adept to putting up yardage than
the Buffalo Bills in recent years. Spiller has changed conferences
and divisions, a combination that will undoubtedly result in more
games played in warmer climates under milder conditions. He appears
destined for a Sproles-like role that should see him reach 50
receptions for the first time in his career. Spiller will have
plenty of motivation to succeed right out of the gate as he is
mixed in as a dual-threat running back. The team would likely
turn to a RBBC should Ingram fail to make it through the season.
As was the case for Sproles, Spiller’s fantasy stock gets
a tremendous bump in PPR formats. Where you value Spiller likely
depends on your league’s scoring settings, so adjust accordingly.
The team’s decision to resign Ingram makes Khiry Robinson
nothing more than a handcuffing option heading into the 2015 season.
Additionally, the addition of Spiller to the offense will limit
Robinson’s touches, even if Ingram is forced to miss any
action. Still, he proved he can be an asset to the rushing attack
after averaging 4.8 yards per carry on 76 rushes in 2014.The team
will likely view him as a better between-the-tackles runner than
Spiller, effectively giving him a shot to vulture two or three
touchdowns throughout the season. As one of the NFL’s better
young backup runners, he could draw trade interest, but chances
are he will be buried on the depth chart to open 2015. As a handcuff
option to Ingram, he lacks upside to make him worthy of being
selected in all but the deepest of leagues or dynasty formats.
The youth movement in New Orleans is headlined by Brandin Cooks.
The team jettisoned two of Brees’ most dangerous targets in Stills
and Graham. Additionally, the impending decline of Marques Colston
as he enters the twilight of his career means Cooks will be asked
to do a lot more during his sophomore season. The early reports
from training camp have been positive. Cooks appears fully recovered
from a thumb injury that ended his season a year ago, and he is
gaining confidence as he prepares for a larger role in the offense.
The Saints have had at least 650 passing attempts in each of the
past five seasons. As long as Brees continues to lead the charge,
Cooks should easily blow past the century mark in targets during
the 2015 regular season. Even as the team’s top wideout, a bullish
fantasy owner should not overlook the lack of size when evaluating
Cooks’ touchdown potential for this season. Brees will still rely
on the steadiness of Colston and size of TE Josh Hill and/or Ben
Watson when the team doesn’t decide to run the ball inside the
10-yard line. A strong WR2 in most formats, Cooks is already flying
up draft boards as one of the league’s preseason “buzz” players.
Lifelong-Saint Marques Colston is coming off another “down”
season in terms of fantasy production. The good news is he was
able to finish as the 31st-best fantasy receiver, while posting
a nearly identical stat line in 2014 as he did in 2013. The bad
news is he had his worst season as a pro in 2014. At 32, he still
has some gas left in the tank and will again be a key contributor
in one of the better passing offenses around the league. However,
it will be tough for fantasy owners to continue to trust him when
he is coming off three straight seasons with a declining target
total and catch percentage. Merely matching his stats from last
season would be a nice outcome for Colston in 2015, but the potential
for further decline makes him a risky WR4 for fantasy owners.
On a fantasy points per game basis, Nick Toon delivered similar
production to Davante Adams, Donte Moncrief and Markus Wheaton
in 2014. All of these players have an arrow pointing up as they
continue to see more playing time. However, a case can be made
that Toon is in the best situation to blossom in 2015. For starters,
he is closer to the guys above him on the depth chart where an
aging Colston and inexperienced Cooks reside. As a slot receiver,
Toon will also be tasked to help fill the void of departed tight
end Graham. Secondly, he has more size than the others previously
mentioned. Standing at six-feet, four-inches and 218 pounds, Toon
is comparable to Colston. He needs to earn the trust of Brees
and prove he can handle more reps within the offense, but a slight
improvement on Stills’ 2014 totals is not out of reach.
The Saints made a gutsy call by trading Graham. Freeing up needed
cap space aside, head coach Sean Payton has to be wishing he had
a little more talent at the tight end position. The team flirted
with Jermaine Gresham before he signed with the Cardinals so Hill’s
status atop the depth chart may need to be revised before your
league’s draft. Nonetheless, with Graham often less than
100 percent, Hill was able to collect five touchdowns while playing
in 12 games as a rookie. The Idaho State alumnus has the hands
and size to continue his success inside the red zone and should
earn starting reps. For the first time in years, the Saints will
lack an elite fantasy option at tight end. If Hill is tabbed the
team’s starter for 2015, he should be a serviceable plug-and-play
option during bye weeks. Eleven-year veteran Ben Watson is always
good for a couple of touchdown catches. He turns 35 years old
in December and is three years removed from anything close to
a worthwhile fantasy season but will be tasked with helping to
fill the void left by Graham. If the team finds an upgrade, third-year
pro Orson Charles may find himself the odd man out.
