Every time Dolphins fans look at the 2020 NFL Draft, they must
get a sick feeling in the pit of their stomachs after Miami took
Tua Tagovailoa ahead of Justin Herbert. While Tagovailoa could
still carve out a solid NFL career, the odds of him being better
than Herbert seem astronomical (barring injury, of course) as
the Oregon product is already viewed as one of the top quarterbacks
out there and is probably 1a/1b with Joe Burrow for QBs 25 and
under -- and you’d only tack Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen ahead
of that duo if you pushed the age limit out to 30.
While he was prone to some off days during his sophomore season,
Herbert still finished the year with 5,014 yards passing, 302
yards rushing, 41 combined TDs (38 passing, 3 rushing), and 15
INTs. He has a tremendous arm, underrated athleticism, and, perhaps
more importantly in the modern NFL, he trusts in his ability and
the ability of his receivers to make plays, and he gives them
that opportunity. Expect Herbert to get even more dangerous as
he gains experience where the already rare poor decisions become
even more infrequent.
Los Angeles may not have the depth of talent of some elite offenses,
but the top of their depth chart is stacked with Pro Bowl contenders
in the backfield and at receiver. Put an emerging superstar at
the head of that offense, and the sky is the limit for what the
Bolts could do in 2022 assuming their key pieces stay healthy.
Other than Allen, who deserves to be the No. 1 quarterback selected,
Herbert is in the conversation with Mahomes for the next QB off
fantasy boards.
In a lot of ways, Ekeler has supplanted Christian McCaffrey as
the preeminent dual-threat tailback in the NFL. Not that he’s
necessarily as talented as Run CMC, but when you miss 23 of the
last 37 games (as McCaffrey has) it’s hard to put them on
the mountain top. One thing to watch for 2022, however, is whether
Ekeler setting a new career high in carries (206, which was 74
more than any previous year) adversely affects the 27-year-old
back. It didn’t last year when he missed just one game;
that after missing a half-dozen in 2021.
For fantasy owners, the biggest development was the 5-foot-10,
200-pounder showing a heretofore unseen penchant for goal-line
work as he rushed for a dozen touchdowns -- he entered last year
with nine rushing scores in his career. He added eight more as
a receiver as part of a 70-catch, 647-yard effort, giving him
20 combined TDs for the year, which tied with Indy’s Jonathan
Taylor for the NFL lead. He’s as natural a receiver out
of the backfield as there is in the NFL, and those extra touches
in space help keep his workload up while not exposing him to more
big hits.
If you’re looking for a drawback with Ekeler, it might be the
drafting of Isaiah Spiller, who on paper should be a much more
capable reserve than last year’s mix of Justin Jackson, who had
a couple of nice games but was largely unimpressive, Larry
Rountree III, and Joshua
Kelley. Then again, nobody in the top five or six RBs looks
airtight apart from maybe Taylor, so Ekeler is absolutely in the
mix for the next back selected and is a definite top-five target.
LA snapped-up Spiller in the fourth round of this year’s
draft, hopefully providing them with stability down the depth
chart. Like the man in front of him, Spiller is a three-down back,
showing toughness and elusiveness between the tackles, and good
hands as a receiver and instinctive running ability with the ball
in space. The Texas A&M alum is also regarded as a good pass
blocker, so nothing should be off the table when he checks in
to spell Ekeler. He lacks elite speed, though, and had issues
with ball security in college, which he’ll need to clean
up post-haste.
While he doesn’t carry more than RB5 value on his own, Spiller
would be a smart addition as a handcuff to anyone that spends
a first-round pick on Ekeler.
Whatever happened when the Chargers relocated to Los Angeles
did wonders for Allen’s health. In the four years he spent
in San Diego, the veteran missed 26 games. In five years since
moving to LA, he’s missed only three. It’s no surprise
then that over that five-year run, Allen has averaged 102 catches,
1,184 yards, and 6.4 TDs per season. It’s that last number
that keeps the 30-year-old out of the elite fantasy receiver discussion,
however, as he’s never been a prolific red-zone producer.
Even though he’s not the designated big-play guy, Allen
is the far steadier, more reliable option. He has great hands
and is one of the NFL’s elite route runners -- he has 60-plus
first-down receptions in each of the last five years. Granted,
a career yards per catch of 11.7 isn’t awe inspiring, but
he caught at least six passes in 11 of his 16 games, giving him
a nice little bump in point-per-reception formats.
Allen is a borderline top-10 fantasy wideout, though he lacks
the upside of some of the younger names in that same range such
as Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown, or Terry McLaurin. So, you must decide
if you prefer the higher floor/lower ceiling of Allen to some
of those more volatile options.
Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Williams picked a
good time to have his best season, posting 76 receptions (well
above his previous high of 49), 1,146 yards, and 9 TDs. That was
enough to earn the former seventh overall pick a three-year, $60
million deal to stay in Los Angeles. It wasn’t always smooth
sailing for Williams in 2021, though, as after topping 80 yards
four times in his first five games while scoring six times the
Clemson product would score just once in his next nine with only
two outings of more than 65 yards receiving.
While the team will doubtless be hoping for better consistency
this year, Williams is bound to be more volatile than Allen just
based on his role as more of a downfield threat. At 6-foot-4,
218 pounds, the sixth-year pro has the size to outfight defensive
backs for the ball in contested catch situations along with the
speed to get behind them. He feels slightly overvalued if you’re
counting on him a low-end WR2, but if you can grab Williams as
your third receiver there’s certainly enough upside there
for him to produce as a No.2.
A year ago, Jalen Guyton (31-448-3) was the de facto No.3 receiver.
While he’s still in the mix for the job, Palmer (33-353-4)
has more upside. A third-round pick last year, Palmer got more
involved as the season wore on, scoring in three of the team’s
final five games while posting his three highest yardage totals
in those same games. With a year under his belt to improve his
route running, Palmer has a shot to develop into a more consistent
downfield weapon. His fantasy profile is nominal as long as Williams
and Allen are healthy, but if anything happens to them Palmer
could be a priority addition.
Jared Cook (48-564-4) was a solid tertiary option for Herbert
last year, but the Bolts moved on from the 35-year-old tight end
and replaced him in free agency with Everett, who posted career
highs in catches (48), yards (478), and touchdowns (4) last season
with Seattle. After one year in the pacific northwest, the former
Ram has returned to Los Angeles where he’ll step into a
potentially productive role as an underneath target for Herbert.
None of Everett’s five seasons have moved the needle much
for fantasy owners, and Cook’s numbers in this offense last
year don’t jump off the page, either. That being said, Herbert’s
ascension could be the fantasy equivalent of a rising tide lifting
all boats. Keep an eye on Everett, but don’t expand a draft
pick outside of deeper leagues where you’d carry a backup
tight end.
