A year ago, the question was how high to select Murray (knee)
in fantasy drafts. This year, it’s whether to select him
at all. While Murray was far from great last season, passing for
2,368 yards, rushing for 418, and accounting for 17 combined touchdowns
(14 passing, 3 rushing), the issue is his recovery timeline from
a torn ACL suffered on Dec. 12.
Details about his recovery have been sparse, and they’ll
likely continue to be so until training camp begins when we’ll
get regular access to the coaching staff. It’s been suggested
that Murray could be back before midseason, but that seems overly
optimistic, and it gives rise to the big question: would Arizona
even bring Murray back if the team is hopelessly out of playoff
contention?
Right now, Arizona is projected by oddsmakers to have the NFL’s
worst record, which would get them a shot at USC’s Caleb
Williams -- at that point they could draft him and move Murray
or look to flip the pick for a boatload of capital like Chicago
did. It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Cardinals
push Murray to get back on the field quickly. If you can nab him
late and stash him in an IR slot, or your QB1 is a reliable top-tier
play, Murray could be worth it. Otherwise, it’s an unnecessary
risk.
McCoy is expected to keep the position warm until Murray returns.
While the date for that is unclear, it’s difficult to believe
Arizona would start McCoy 17 times no matter what unfolds. If
Murray has any setback, or the team elects to hold him out, they’d
likely prefer to get a look at Clayton Tune or another young quarterback
rather than rolling with a 37-year-old game manager. We all know
what McCoy is, and that’s not enough for fantasy owners.
In many ways, Conner is reminiscent of the old Leroy Hoard quote,
“if you need one yard, I’ll get you three, and if
you need five yards, I’ll get you three.” The 233-pound
back is a bruiser that does his best work in short-yardage and
goal-line situations -- that includes 26 touchdowns in two seasons
with the Cardinals. He’s not particularly explosive, however,
and durability is an annual concern as he has never missed fewer
than two games in six NFL campaigns.
On the plus side, Conner is underrated as a pass catcher, averaging
41.4 receptions over the last five years. That should be appealing
to the risk-averse McCoy, whose primary job is to avoid killer
mistakes. Despite his issues staying healthy, Arizona has invested
little in depth at the position, which means Conner is likely
staring down a heavy workload for as long as he can handle it.
At this stage it’d be hard to advocate you should even consider
selecting any of his backups, which include names like Keaontay
Ingram, Corey Clement, and Ty’Son Williams.
With five-year averages of 1,066 combined yards and 10.4 touchdowns,
Conner projects as a possible top-20 fantasy back, though there
are sure to be weeks where you’ll need to cover for his
absence.
When the Cardinals acquired Brown from Baltimore, he was supposed
to join up with DeAndre Hopkins to form a lethal one-two punch
for the Cardinals. Due to injuries and suspension, that duo played
in four games together. Now, with Hopkins released, Brown will
assume the mantle of WR1 that he wore with the Ravens. The undersized
wideout has excellent speed and has been mostly durable, missing
just three games over his first three seasons combined before
bowing out for five weeks in 2022.
His production has been respectable, but not great, averaging
66 receptions, 768 yards, and 6 TDs since being drafted 25th overall
back in 2019. There’s little doubt he’s capable of
more, given he spent three years in Baltimore’s run-heavy
attack before last year’s injury-shortened effort. Whether
we’ll get to see that in 2023 is debatable, though, with
McCoy in line to potentially start the majority of the games.
That duo played just one full game together last year, and Brown
managed a paltry 4-34-0 line.
With no firm return date on Murray, and no established option
to take coverage off Brown, you should view the fifth-year pro
as a midrange WR3 with modest upside.
In what is already a recurring theme, Moore missed a significant
chunk of last season due to injury as he appeared in just eight
games before a groin injury ended his season. He underwent surgery
on both his groin and finger, and he should be fully healed for
camp. When healthy, Moore was a volume target, catching six or
more passes five times, though at 10.1 yards per catch it’s
clear he was doing most of his work close to the line of scrimmage
on quick hitters and receiver screens.
Moore’s outlook for 2023 definitely improved with the release
of Hopkins as it was always a concern that he’d be phased
out when both Brown and Hopkins were healthy -- something we never
saw in 2022. Still, in his two seasons, Moore hasn’t been
much more than a chain mover, averaging 8.9 yards on his 95 receptions,
and he’s been a complete nonfactor in the red zone with
two TDs. You can target him as a No. 5 fantasy wideout based on
his expected high level of involvement.
Arizona’s usage of Dortch last season remains a complete
mystery as seemingly every time he was given an opportunity, he
delivered... only to be put right back on the shelf when the team’s
other wideouts returned to health. To that end, Dortch had five
games of 50-plus yards receiving, but in the other 12 he had a
combined 68 yards.
Now that Hopkins and A.J. Green are gone, Dortch looks like he
has a good chance of being the club’s No. 3 receiver (unless
third-rounder Michael Wilson has a great camp). We’ll see
if the new coaching staff has a better plan for Dortch than the
last one. He’s not worth drafting with so much uncertainty
on the offense, but he’s someone that belongs on your watch
list.
Ertz caught 47 passes for 406 yards and 4 TDs in 10 games last
season before, you guessed it, suffering a season-ending injury.
In his case, it was an ACL/MCL injury that required surgery. The
veteran says he hopes to be ready for Week 1, though at age 32
and with 10 seasons on his odometer that may not be realistic
since he sustained the injury in mid-November.
Even if he is healthy, Ertz is likely staring down a diminished
role with Trey McBride coming off a promising rookie season. At
a shaky position like tight end, though, that’s still enough to
give the veteran borderline top-20 value. He also figures to be
a possible in-season trade target for an Arizona team that’s expected
to be among the league’s worst.
A second-round pick last year, McBride collected 20 receptions,
219 yards, and a touchdown over the final five weeks to give the
Cardinals hope that they’ve found a long-term solution at
tight end. He may be hard pressed to usurp the starting job from
Ertz right away, but don’t discount the above scenario where
the veteran is moved at the trade deadline. While you’d
have to be in a very deep league to consider McBride on draft
day, he could be a priority in-season pickup, so stick him on
your watch list and be prepared to scoop him up if circumstances
dictate.
