When you consider expectations versus results, Wilson might’ve
been the most disappointing player in the NFL last season. Acquired
from Seattle and signed to a monster contract before taking a
snap with Denver, the nine-time Pro Bowler was abysmal, never
gelling with head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was fired before
his first season was complete, and struggling in every facet of
the game.
There are plenty of statistical indicators that point to the
depth of his issues, but perhaps none more effectively than the
fact that he didn’t throw his 10th touchdown pass until
Dec. 11. His final numbers -- 3,524 yards passing, 277 yards rushing,
16 TD passes, and 11 INTs -- were poor, but it’s hard to
argue his performance wasn’t even worse than that; he threw
for 283 yards and 3 TDs in a Week 18 win over the Chargers in
a game that held no meaning for them.
Desperate to salvage what currently looks like a terrible trade,
the Broncos doubled down and shipped out more assets to lure longtime
Saints head coach Sean Payton out of a brief retirement. Payton’s
primary job will be to resurrect the 34-year-old’s career.
He did yeoman’s work finding ways to keep Drew Brees effective
in his twilight years, so it’ll be interesting to see if
he can do it with Wilson, who is similarly undersized and has
been safe with the football during his career.
While he has also battled injuries the past two seasons, missing
five games, the veteran has generally been durable so that’s
only a mild concern. Given Payton’s track record of success
offensively, Wilson looks like a very interesting risk/reward
QB2.
Coming off a rookie season in which he gained 1,219 total yards
and scored seven times while splitting touches with Melvin Gordon,
Williams appeared poised to overtake Gordon as the lead back and
ascend to RB2 territory entering 2022. Instead, he averaged 84.3
yards per game through three weeks without a touchdown before
suffering a torn ACL in Week 4. In terms of timing, that gives
the third-year pro a little less than a year between the injury
and the 2023 season opener.
It’s hard to gauge how quickly someone will bounce back from an
injury of that type, and perhaps more crucially it’s nearly impossible
to determine when they’ll return to form. For example, Ravens
RB J.K. Dobbins returned from his own torn ACL in Week 3 last
year, lasted four games and then missed two additional months
following a clean-up procedure. So, while the team has expressed
optimism about Williams’ recovery, even going as far as saying
he could be ready for camp, that very much belongs under the “believe
it when you see it” category.
Considering his solid but not elite production and health concerns,
Williams belongs in that midrange or low-end RB3 category with
the possibility for more.
Outside of a 175-carry, 603-yard effort as a rookie with Washington
back in 2017, Perine had seen modest usage during his NFL career.
With Joe Mixon banged up in Cincinnati last year, however, the
former Sooner put together his best professional campaign: 681
total yards and 6 TDs. While those are modest numbers, it earned
Perine a two-year, $7.5 million deal in Denver to come in and
pair with Williams as Payton’s top-two runners.
Payton effectively deployed Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara as a
one-two punch in New Orleans, though it’s hard to view Perine
as being on the same level as either of those backs in their prime.
While Perine is entering his age-28 season, which is a bit long
in the tooth for an NFL back, his mileage is low having played
complementary roles throughout his career. An effective receiver
out of the backfield, Perine is a quality RB4 that might overdeliver
that valuation.
Heavily rumored to be available in trades leading up to the draft,
Jeudy not only returns to Denver for his fourth season, but the
team even picked up his fifth-year option. Coming off an injury-marred
2021, the Alabama alum put together his best all-around season
in 2022, which could be considered a silver-ish lining in a mostly
dismal campaign. He displayed the most chemistry with Wilson and
showed he could work down the field, leading the team in receptions
(67), receiving yards (972), yards per catch (14.5), and touchdowns
(6).
Throughout much of the Payton-Brees era in NOLA, the Saints had
a primary go-to receiver that got tons of targets, the most recent
of which was Michael Thomas, who averaged 117.5 receptions per
season over his first four years. While it’d take a leap
of faith to think that Jeudy will slide right into Thomas’
role in Denver, he has considerable talent, is still just 24 years
old, and at least looks to be in the club’s long-term plans.
An ascending performer going into an offense that has created
high-volume fantasy stars in the past, Jeudy is a strong WR3 that
could absolutely push into the top-20.
While the arrow on Jeudy appears to be pointing up, Sutton’s
career may have stalled out. He looked to be on the cusp of becoming
a legit No. 1 receiver back in 2019 when he logged 1,112 yards
and 6 TDs on 72 receptions with the likes of Joe Flacco, Drew
Lock, and Brandon Allen throwing the ball. Sutton just hasn’t
looked the same since tearing his ACL/MCL early in 2020, averaging
61 catches, 803 yards, and a pair of touchdowns in two post-injury
campaigns.
Like Jeudy, Sutton was mentioned in trade rumors, but the sixth-year
wideout has a contract structure that suggests he’ll be
done in Denver after this season unless he has an absolutely monster
year. Given how he’s been trending, that seems unlikely,
and with good depth behind him, Sutton doesn’t appear to
have a very high ceiling. If you get him on your roster as your
fourth or fifth receiver he should provide quality depth, and
maybe he even surprises by ascending to reliable WR3 territory.
With apologies to Tim Patrick (knee), who totaled 104 catches,
1,476 yards, and 11 TDs in 2020-21 before tearing his ACL last
August, Mims looks to be the more interesting player to watch
behind Jeudy and Sutton. Patrick turns 30 in November, and it’s
always worrisome when fringe guys suffer serious injuries as there
are times when, even if they only lose half a step, they didn’t
have half a step to lose. Like Sutton, Patrick’s contract
has an “out” after the season, so his long-term outlook
in Denver is grim.
Circling back to Mims, he’s undersized (5-foot-11, 183
pounds) but should be a nice fit in the slot where his quickness
and burst could make him a weapon on quick hitters and deep balls,
something Wilson has traditionally done well over his career.
While not worth a draft pick, Mims could be added to your watch
list, particularly in larger leagues.
A year ago, Albert Okwuegbunam had some buzz entering 2022 as
the heir apparent to Noah Fant, who’d been traded away in
the Wilson deal. He opened with five catches in Week 1 but did
little after that and ended up being a healthy scratch for much
of the season. A tight end did start to emerge last year, however,
and that was Dulcich, a third-round pick.
Despite appearing in just 10 games as a rookie, Dulcich managed
to finish third on the team with 411 yards on 32 receptions and
two touchdowns. On the downside, he bookended his first year on
Injured Reserve, missing five games with a hamstring injury to
open the season and then missing the final two with a similar
issue.
After some initially cryptic remarks from Payton about Dulcich’s
future in Denver, the new head coach seems to have warmed to the
UCLA product, lauding his versatility in terms of what he can
do and where he can line up. There’s a lot of intrigue with
Dulcich, who could be targeted as a borderline TE1 with top-10
potential.
