Saddled with a receiver group that struggled throughout the season
and produced just one wideout with more than 500 yards, Mahomes’
numbers trended downward. He finished with 4,183 yards and 27
TDs, both representing his lowest output since 2019 when he played
in 14 games, and tossed a career-high 14 interceptions. With his
targets struggling to separate, Mahomes ran more than ever, setting
personal bests in carries (75) and rushing yards (389), though
he failed to score a touchdown.
Despite the Chiefs’ run to another Super Bowl title, Kansas City
made upgrading the receiver room a priority during the offseason,
signing Marquise Brown and spending a first-round pick on Xavier
Worthy in hopes that they can combine with second-year pro Rashee
Rice to form a quality top three. There are plenty of other high-round
draft picks as well -- Skyy
Moore, Mecole
Hardman, Kadarius
Toney -- so perhaps enough of them will step up to give Mahomes
some better options.
From a talent standpoint, Mahomes remains the standard bearer
in the NFL. At 29 (in September), he’s in the prime of his
career. He’s seen it all, done it all, and he doesn’t
get rattled when things don’t go his way. He just hangs
in there and makes plays. Ideally, he’ll run a little less
this year and pass a bit more. While not quite on par from a fantasy
perspective with Josh Allen and maybe Jalen Hurts, Mahomes is
still a top-five QB on draft day and probably the most reliable.
Expectations last year were that the Chiefs would utilize some
level of committee backfield with Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, and
Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Instead, Pacheco was the bell cow, racking
up 249 combined touches in 14 games while McKinnon (46) and CEH
(87) combined for 133. There are few players in the NFL that run
harder than Pacheco, who gives maximum effort on seemingly every
touch. Whether such an approach is sustainable over the long haul
is debatable, but through two seasons he has missed just two games
due to injury.
The Chiefs didn’t make any notable additions at running back,
and at this stage they appear to have decided not to bring back
McKinnon, allowing CEH to be the backup and perhaps opening up
a spot at RB3 for last year’s training camp darling, Deneric
Prince. However things shake out down the depth chart, it’s
clear that this is Pacheco’s job. In a league that has more and
more committees in the backfield, the chance to draft a true lead
back is becoming increasingly rare. A talented weapon in a dangerous
offense, Pacheco heads into 2024 as a top-10 fantasy RB.
The Chiefs entered 2023 hoping one of several young receivers
on their roster would step up. Only one did. That was Rice, who
simply continued to make plays when given the chance and saw his
role steadily expand. Over the final six games, the then-rookie
caught 43 passes for 518 yards and three TDs, becoming the clear
go-to target on the outside. For the season, he finished with
a 79-938-7 line, leading the club in touchdowns and finishing
second to Travis Kelce in receptions and yards.
Even with the offseason additions, Rice looks set to be the No.
1 receiver in Kansas City. Unfortunately, the second-year pro
has introduced an element of uncertainty into the equation as
he is facing felony charges stemming from a multi-vehicle crash.
No discipline has been announced by the NFL to date, but the team
is reportedly expecting a multi-game suspension that will take
Rice off the field to open the season. Once the duration is known,
his value will crystallize further. For now, he should be viewed
as a strong WR3 and possible top-25 fantasy wideout.
A 1,000-yard receiver with Baltimore in 2021, Brown delivered
two nondescript seasons for the Arizona Cardinals, following up
a 67-709-3 debut with 51 receptions, 574 yards, and 4 TDs last
year. Originally, the move was made to reunite Brown with Kyler
Murray, his college teammate at Oklahoma, but the two didn’t
get to play a ton of football together as the quarterback missed
15 games with a torn ACL while Brown missed eight games of his
own.
Coming off back-to-back subpar seasons led to the former first-round
pick signing a one-year deal with the Chiefs in hopes of rehabbing
his value, similar to what JuJu Smith-Schuster did in 2022. Brown
has good speed, and he should give the club a more dangerous deep
threat than Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was an inconsistent
contributor during his time with the club. Brown would be an interesting
target as a WR4, and his value could also tick up somewhat depending
on Rice’s suspension.
With Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney failing to show much development
since joining the Chiefs, the team invested a first-round pick
on Worthy. At 5-foot-11, 165 pounds, Worthy is a lithe target
that offers elite speed, running the 40-yard dash in 4.21 seconds
in the lead up to the draft. He’s very much cut from the
same cloth as Brown, which begs the question whether Kansas City
views him as a replacement in 2025 or a complement this fall.
It’s also fair to wonder if they feel comfortable deploying
two such undersized wideouts at the same time with any regularity.
Worthy’s path for fantasy value this year isn’t as
clear as Rice or Brown, as he’ll need to prove he’s
ready for more than just occasional snaps. Toney and Moore are
still young enough to push for time here, and Justin Watson (27-460-3)
was quietly solid last year -- Watson also stands 6-foot-2, and
weighs 215 pounds, making him a more capable blocker. There’s
definite upside with Worthy based on his blazing speed and the
presence of Mahomes, but don’t consider him as more than
a WR5.
A star within the NFL for years, Kelce gained worldwide recognition
for dating Taylor Swift -- you may have heard it mentioned once
or twice last year. While he still led the team in receptions
(93) and receiving yards (984), the veteran missed the first and
last games of 2023, and he saw his seven-year run of topping 1,000
yards come to an end. His game-to-game production was also spottier
than usual, as he posted more than 100 yards in a game only twice
compared to six games of less than 50.
With the Chiefs adding talent on the outside, perhaps this is
the year they start leaning less on Kelce, who has 10 seasons
under his belt and has played a ton of snaps. He’ll turn
35 in October, and for the first time in a while you can make
a strong argument that he doesn’t deserve to be the first
tight end drafted -- that may now be Detroit’s Sam LaPorta.
Even with things trending down, Kelce is still the safest tight
end to draft, and he shouldn’t be lower than No. 2 option
at the position.
