Widely considered the most talented player in the NFL, Mahomes’
otherworldly ability hasn’t translated into statistical
excellence the past two seasons. In 2023, the two-time MVP passed
for 4,183 yards, 27 TDs, and 14 INTs. Last season, those numbers
dipped to 3,928 yards, 26 TDs, and 11 INTs. That’s a far
cry from Mahomes’ most recent MVP campaign: 5,250 yards,
41 TDs, and 12 INTs in 2022. The good news is that the downturn
in numbers doesn’t have anything to do with age or erosion
of ability.
Instead, the culprit is a general lack of talent around Mahomes.
Aside from the reliable Travis Kelce, the Chiefs have struggled
to find playmakers on the outside. A year ago, Xavier Worthy led
the team’s wideouts with 638 yards receiving. In 2023, Rashee
Rice had a respectable 938 yards, but that was more than Justin
Watson (460 yards) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (315) had combined
as the second- and third-leading receivers.
Health was the biggest issue for the Chiefs’ receiving corps
in 2024. Rice appeared in just four games last season before suffering
a knee injury, and newly signed Hollywood Brown was limited to
two games after he injured his shoulder during the preseason.
The Chiefs tried to fill in with veterans DeAndre Hopkins and
JuJu Smith-Schuster, but at this stage of their respective careers
they lacked the type of big-play ability that Rice and Brown would
have offered.
The good news is that they’re all healthy, and on paper,
the foursome of Rice, Worthy, Brown, and Smith-Schuster is as
deep a group of wideouts as Mahomes has had, even if there’s
no singular talent on the level of former Chief Tyreek Hill. Head
coach Andy Reid has also talked about the need to get back to
pushing the ball downfield this season after utilizing a lot of
short passes in 2024. While not on the level of true dual threats
like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, Mahomes remains a midrange QB1.
Pacheco entered last season amid huge expectations from fantasy
owners, and for good reason. He had grown into more of a featured
role in 2023 and looked primed to be a genuine every-down type
player for a potent Chiefs offense. The workload was promising
early on, logging 17 touches in Week 1 and then 24 in Week 2,
but he suffered a fractured fibula during that game and would
miss the next 10 weeks recovering. He wasn’t the same upon
returning, either. After trying to ramp up his touches -- he had
16 in his second game back and then 14 -- the Chiefs decided he
couldn’t help them much in his current state, and he totaled
just 32 touches over his final five games, including the playoffs.
With a full offseason to recover, Pacheco should be ready to
roll in Week 1, and the team’s lack of investment at the position
(they brought back Kareem Hunt, added Elijah
Mitchell in free agency, and drafted a back in the final round)
suggests they believe it. When he’s healthy, Pacheco is a physical
back that runs with intensity and can chip in as a receiver out
of the backfield as well. A year ago, he was in the discussion
as a first-round option for fantasy owners. This year, Pacheco
is better viewed as a low-end RB2 with some upside.
With Pacheco on the shelf for much of last season, Hunt led the
Chiefs in rushing, turning 200 carries into 728 yards and 7 TDs.
It was the veteran’s best year since 2020 (198-841-6), and
the team thought enough of his efforts to bring him back on a
one-year deal. He’s penciled in as the backup for the time
being, though he’ll face a camp challenge from talented
but oft-injured Elijah Mitchell, who averaged 4.7 yards per carry
during his time with the 49ers but appeared in just 27 of 68 possible
games, which included missing all of 2024 with a hamstring injury.
Holdover Carson
Steele and seventh-round pick Brashard
Smith could also push for time, but right now the odds favor
Hunt as the backup with Mitchell slotting in as the No. 3 back.
Despite Pacheco coming off an injury filled campaign, it’s dubious
whether Hunt (or Mitchell, if he leapfrogged him on the depth
chart) would be worth selecting as a handcuff, at least in standard
leagues.
Rice’s strong close to 2023 led to heightened expectations
during the offseason. Things got muddied by an off-the-field incident
that many figured would result in a potentially lengthy suspension
from the NFL, which pushed him down draft boards and made him
a risk/reward selection. Rice did indeed turn out to be a risky
pick, though not for anything off the field, as he avoided punishment
from the league but not from his opponents as a Week 4 knee injury
shelved him for the rest of 2024.
His absence created a trickledown effect that robbed the offense
of much of its expected explosiveness -- Rice was on pace for
102 receptions, 1,224 yards, and 9 TDs when he was injured --
and his return is a big reason there’s a lot of optimism
about Kansas City returning to form as a powerhouse offense in
2025. Incredibly, though, there’s still been no resolution
on his pending legal difficulties, so it remains a possibility
that the NFL could hand down some discipline.
At this point, the expectation is that the NFL won’t do
anything until the legal proceedings conclude, so Rice appears
poised to play out the 2025 season. Based purely on what we’ve
seen from Rice on the field, he looks like a borderline top-20
fantasy wideout this season.
One needn’t look very hard to see shades of Rice’s
2023 ascent in Worthy’s efforts last year as his role grew
as the season wore on, culminating in five TDs over his final
five games, including three in the playoffs and two in the Super
Bowl. Flanked by veterans like Hopkins and Smith-Schuster, Worthy
moved at a different speed. Even with a lack of complementary
threats, defenses had trouble checking the then-rookie, who did
a lot of his damage on passes near the line of scrimmage where
the Chiefs simply let his athleticism win out.
Adding the playmaking ability of Rice and a healthy Brown to
Worthy should only serve to make last year’s first-round
pick even more dangerous. We’ve already seen what he’s
capable of just via the coaching staff finding ways to get him
the ball in space, but Reid’s proclamation that KC will
be more aggressive with the vertical passing game in 2025 could
be a further boon for Worthy, whose speed must be accounted for
on every snap.
Although he doesn’t feel quite as “safe” of
a selection as Rice, at least in terms of on-field production,
Worthy belongs in that same low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 category.
If the Chiefs succeed in getting that offense more dynamic, it
wouldn’t be out of the question for Kansas City to produce
more than one 1,000-yard receiver in 2025.
Signed before last season to provide the Chiefs with another
big-play threat, Brown sustained a shoulder injury on his first
catch of the preseason and underwent surgery. He didn’t
make his debut with the club until Week 16 and appeared in only
two games, turning nine catches into 91 yards. The team re-upped
with the veteran on another one-year deal, though their need doesn’t
look nearly as dire as long as both Rice and Worthy are healthy
and available.
Brown, a former first-round pick of the Ravens, has flashed his
talent since entering the NFL, but after six seasons he’s
managed to top 1,000 yards just once (91-1008-6 in 2021). He’s
also had issues with durability, missing eight games during his
two-year run with the Cardinals and then 15 games for Kansas City
in 2024 -- he has appeared in every game once in his career. Brown
feels more like a fallback option in case we see regression, injury,
or other issues for Rice and/or Worthy, but he might still be
worth a look as late-round depth.
A future first-ballot Hall of Famer, Kelce has finally begun
to look his age. After posting his ninth straight 1,000-plus-yard
campaign in 2022, the veteran has seen his numbers drop over the
past two seasons, going from a 110-1338-12 effort in ’22
to 93-984-5 in ’23 and 97-823-3 last year. He was a nonfactor
in the AFC Championship Game (2-19-0) and Super Bowl (4-39-0)
as well; his performance in the latter leading to a lot of vows
that he’ll be better in 2025.
Reports indicate that Kelce has shed some weight, so perhaps
that will help the 35-year-old regain some of his lost explosiveness
after he averaged a career-low 8.5 yards per reception. He’s
not a field stretcher, though, which could mean the veteran sees
fewer opportunities in an offense that appears focused on more
big plays and less underneath passes. That’s not to suggest
he won’t be part of the gameplan. Kelce has been Mahomes’
top target for years, and there’s a comfort level there
born of seven seasons worth of playing in the NFL’s biggest
showcases.
Kelce has sat at or near the top of fantasy tight end rankings
for the better part of a decade, but he no longer belongs in that
top tier with the likes of Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Instead,
Kelce resides in the TE1 midrange along with names like T.J. Hockenson
and Mark Andrews.
