Each week when compiling this
report, I take into consideration not only the individual players
mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents,
team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather
(when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic,
stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right
roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important
to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster
question relative to your team? Fire
away.
I want to say thanks to Aaron
Beck for doing a great job on the SCR over the last 2 weeks.
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Matt Ryan vs. TB
Last week the Giants allowed Ryan just his third game of the season
with 0 INTs; it was the first time he hasn’t thrown a pick
in a game since Week 3. His 268 yards were the third highest total
this season and Ryan has now thrown at least 1 TD pass in 7 straight
games and 9 of 10 games overall in 2009. The stars align for the
former Boston College Eagle as this week he faces a Bucs D that
has served up 22 passing TDs this year and 10 passing plays of
40+ yards.
Carson Palmer vs. CLE
Palmer has thrown 22 career TDs against the Browns (including
2 in Week 4 in Cleveland) his most versus any NFL opponent. After
8 TDs in his previous 4 games, Palmer has been held without a
passing TD in consecutive games for just the 4th time in his career;
he has never gone 3 straight games without a passing TD. The Browns
pass defense has allowed 247.1 yards per game, 26th in the league.
Cleveland has allowed 37 passing plays of 20+ yards.
Brett Favre vs. CHI
Favre has 9 TDs and 0 INT in his last 3 games and his output is
not showing any signs of waning; he continues to complete a high
percentage of passes and has 2+ TD passes in 6 of 10 games this
year. Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe just keep
getting better. The Bears defense has been exploited from time
to time this season but they allow just 197.8 passing YPG. Still
they have given up 18 aerial scores, the 6th highest total in
the league. Favre magic lives on.
A juicy matchup for Rivers this week against
the Chiefs weak pass defense.
Philip Rivers vs. KC
No team has allowed more big passing plays than Rivers’
Week 12 opponent, the Chiefs, who have given up 13 plays of 40+
yards this season. Kansas City allows 250.9 passing yards per
game, 28th best in the NFL. Rivers threw for 268 yards and 3 TDs
in their Week 6 match up and should not have trouble again exploiting
a defense which has given up 17 aerial scores and produced just
7 INTs this year. The Chiefs have registered just 15 sacks this
year, 3rd lowest total in the league.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Joe Flacco vs. Pit
In the four games since his 385-yard, 2 TD game against the Vikings,
Flacco has 1 TD and 3 INTs and has thrown for 200+ yards just
once. It won’t get much easier for him this week against
Pittsburgh, whose defense hasn’t been stellar but certainly
remains in the upper echelon of NFL teams. In 2 career games against
the Steelers, Flacco has 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Brady Quinn @ CIN
Brady Quinn exploded for 304 yards and 4 TD passes last week,
posting easily the best game of his career and the best game by
a Browns QB this season. Let’s bear in mind that this came
at the expense of the Detroit Lions who have now allowed 24 TDs
through the air while intercepting just 6 passes. The Bengals
have allowed a respectable 12 TDs and have intercepted 12 passes
in 2009. They are not prone to the deep ball and will mount a
formidable pass rush.
Matt Cassel @ SD
Without WR Dwayne Bowe last week, Cassel surprisingly put up good
numbers against the Steelers. His past 3 game totals: 4 TD, 1
INT and 242 YPG. This week could be a different story when he
faces the Chargers. San Diego limited Cassel to complete just
40% of his passes in Week 7. He finished that game with 1 TD,
3 INT and 97 yards passing. Last year calling the signals for
the high octane Patriots offense, Cassel threw for 0 TD, 1 INT
and 202 yards in an October game in San Diego.
Matt Schaub vs. IND
Tough to bench Schaub, I am struggling with that decision myself;
it is hard to ignore that he averages 295.8 passing YPG. The Colts
D has allowed 218.2 passing YPG and 7 TDs this season while picking
off 7 passes. I can envision Schaub padding stats while playing
catch up, he did have 311 yards in that fashion 3 weeks ago in
Indianapolis, but he also threw 2 INTs to just 1 TD in that game.
Running Backs
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