Running Backs

Bye Weeks:

Start 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Jason Snelling vs. TB
Snelling, third on the Falcons RB chart, averaged just 3.04 YPC (25 carries for 76 yards) last week but he did catch 3 passes and scored 2 TDs. Suddenly he has 43 carries, 6 catches and 3 TDs in the last 2 weeks filling in for Michael Turner. Turner will be back sooner or later, but it’s hard to imagine him returning this week against Tampa. The Bucs rush D has been shredded throughout the season, allowing a league-high 168.9 rushing YPG and 12 TDS on the ground.

Bernard Scott vs. CLE
Scott ran for a season and career-high 119 yards in place of the injured Cedric Benson last week. Granted, it was Oakland, but this week’s opponent, the Browns are on the same level as the Raiders. Cleveland allows 154.9 rushing YPG and has given up 13 TDs on the ground. Even if Benson plays, his role is likely to be reduced for this week and Scott has a great chance for his first career rushing TD.

Ryan Grant @ DET
Ryan Grant has turned it up a notch over his last 3 games, averaging 20.3 carries and 101.3 YPG with 2 TDs in that stretch. He needs to find the end zone more to make his owners blissful but a Thanksgiving Day match up against the Lions could be a cause for celebration. Detroit is awful defending the pass and that should open things up considerably for Grant on the ground. Grant had 24 carries and 107 yards of offense in his Week 5 game versus the Lions.

Williams has 7 TDs in his last five games.

Ricky Williams @ BUF
Ricky has back-to-back 100 yard games and has 7 TDs in his last 5 contests. The Buffalo Bills boast the NFL’s 31st ranked run defense, as they have allowed 165.9 YPG and 15 TDs in 2009. In Week 4, Williams had 16 carries for 85 yards and a TD against them, and Ronnie Brown played in that game (20 carries, 115 yards, 2 TDs). The Bills pass defense is good enough that the Dolphins would be insane not to exploit their weak run defense, which is precisely why you should expect a big game from Williams this week. Ricky has 7 career TDs against the Bills, the most against any NFL opponent.

LaDainian Tomlinson vs. KC
LDT has TDs in 2 straight games and 5 TDs in his last 4. His 3.39 YPC leaves much to be desired, but he is the primary tailback on a dynamic offense and both are playing as good as they have all season. With Sproles in the mix, Tomlinson does not factor much into the passing game (9 catches this season) like he used to, but he should still see 20+ carries this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed 138.6 rushing YPG and 9 TDs on the ground.

Bench 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Jamaal Charles @ SD
Charles had his first 100-yard game of the season 2 weeks ago against Oakland and has scored 3 TDs (1 rushing, 1 receiving, 1 return) in his last 2 games. After a big home win against the Steelers I could see KC having a huge letdown on the road in San Diego. After starting 2-3, the Chargers have reeled off 5 straight wins, the streak starting with the Chiefs on October 25. The San Diego run defense has allowed 7 TDs and 118.5 YPG in 2009.

Joseph Addai @ HOU
Addai has been a disappointment this year in terms of actually running the ball, but he has scored (or thrown) at least 1 TD in 8 of 10 games this year. He consistently ends up on the ‘bench em’ side but still has produced reasonable fantasy numbers. He had a season high 74 yards last week and had a rushing and receiving TD against Houston in Week 9. While I think he will underperform again, it wouldn’t be surprising if he found pay dirt considering how well Indy moves the ball. Until Chris Johnson’s game last week, the Texans had not allowed 100 rushing yards since Week 3.

Kevin Smith vs. GB
The Lions will likely be without QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson, leaving Smith as the lone playmaker on what could be a sputtering offense. Unfortunately for him, Green Bay has been adept at stopping the run, holding opponents to 90.7 rushing YPG and just 3 TDs this year. Smith had 15 carries for 61 yards in the Lions Week 5 shutout in Green Bay. Similar totals can be expected on Thanksgiving Day. His receiving TD last week was his first score since Week 3.

Matt Forte @ MIN
1-100 yard game and 3 rushing TDs through 10 contests, certainly not the production you expected from your first/second round pick back in August. He has 18 catches over his last 3 games which keeps him serviceable in PPR leagues. Now that it is Week 12, we know what to expect from Forte and should not be looking for him to break out and return to his rookie form, certainly not against Minnesota. The Vikings are one of 3 teams (Steelers, Bengals) to hold opponents to under 90 rushing YPG (85.5).

Ray Rice vs. PIT
Rice has 20+ carries in 3 of his last 4 contests and has firmly established himself as the ‘go to’ guy in the Ravens offense. He leads the team in rushing (73.3 YPG) and receptions (56). Last week his string of 4 straight games with a rushing TD was snapped and it could prove difficult to punch one in against the Steelers. I personally will not bench Rice but have to cross my fingers and hope that he continues to be a focus in the passing game. Pittsburgh boasts the best run defense in the NFL, allowing just 69.2 YPG and 2 TDs in 10 games.

Wide Receivers