Each week when compiling this
report, I take into consideration not only the individual players
mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents,
team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather
(when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic,
stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right
roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important
to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster
question relative to your team? Fire
away.
Quarterbacks
Bye Weeks: Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton,
David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Eli Manning vs. ARI
Hasselbeck was a complete bust last week against the Cardinals,
but they still allow more yards through the air (265.2 YPG) than
any NFL team not named the Titans. Eli is coming off his worst
game of the season where he only completed 45.2% of his passes,
but I expect the Giants to bounce back in a big way this week
in the Meadowlands. Arizona has allowed 9 passing TDs in 5 games
while picking off just 4 passes. Manning’s last game versus
the Cards (11.23.08) produced his best game of 2008 when he tossed
3 scores and threw for 240 yards.
Jay Cutler @ CIN
With the running game still finding its way, Cutler finds himself
in a similar position to last season - which is a good thing for
fantasy owners. Last week he had his first 300-yard game as a
member of the Bears and he has now thrown 2+ TDs in 4 straight
games. His penchant for throwing interceptions can’t be ignored,
but this week he faces the 28th ranked pass defense of the Bengals
who got lit up by Matt Schaub for 392 yards last week. He’ll leave
you scratching your head at times, but his upside makes him a
strong play this week.
Matt Ryan @ DAL
Ryan had a little trouble finding his rhythm against the Bears
last week, but still managed to throw 2 TDs. He has now thrown
2+ TDs in 4 of 5 games this season. His yardage totals are slightly
underwhelming, this week he gets to face one of the most overrated
defenses in the league in the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have
intercepted an NFL-low 2 passes and allow an average of 251.4
YPG through the air. Eli Manning, Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel each
threw 2 TD passes with no interceptions against Dallas this year.
Philip Rivers gets healthy against the
weak Chiefs pass defense.
Philip Rivers @ KC
Rivers production has been curtailed, to an extent, due to the
lackluster running game of the Chargers. He remains a very good
QB with lots of potential each week considering his arsenal, albeit
on an underachieving team. I like his chances this Sunday in Kansas
City when he faces a Chiefs team that has served up 10 aerial
scores and 249.5 passing YPG. Last season in 2 games against Kansas
City, Rivers had 662 yards passing, 4 TDs and 3 INTs.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Min
The solid run defense (and less than stellar pass defense) of
the Vikings should force Roethlisberger to make plenty of plays
with his arm this week. Ben has been lighting it up of late, tossing
7 TDs with just 2 interceptions in his last 3 games, while averaging
342 passing YPG in that span. Joe Flacco torched the Vikes for
385 yards and 2 scores last week and Minnesota has now allowed
9 aerial scores and an average of 248.3 YPG.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Donovan McNabb @ WAS
McNabb threw for a season-high 269 yards last week but without
a TD pass did little to help fantasy owners. As embarrassing as
the Redskins are this year, their pass defense has been very good,
yielding just 169 YPG and only 5 aerial TDs in 6 games. Washington
is 1 of 3 NFL teams (Panthers, Colts) who have not allowed a passing
play of 40+ yards this season. In 2 games last season Donovan
did not throw a TD pass against the Redskins; this year Washington
is allowing just 16 PPG, 5th best in the NFL.
Jason Campbell vs. PHI
Campbell will remain the Redskins starting quarterback against
Philadelphia on Monday night despite getting benched at halftime
the ‘Skins loss to the Chiefs last week. His confidence
may be near an all time low as he has averaged just 134.67 passing
YPG over his last three with 3 TDs and 4 INTs in that span. Factor
in that the Eagles pass defense allows 179 YPG and have more interceptions
(11) than TDs allowed (8). Campbell was a disappointment against
the poor defenses of the Rams, Lions, Bucs and Chiefs, so there
is no reason to believe he will deliver against the Eagles.
Marc Bulger vs. IND
Bulger has not been a fantasy commodity since 2006, and despite
his highest passing yardage total of the season last week, he
absolutely should not be considered for deployment, even for the
most desperate of owners in the deepest of leagues. He has not
had a multiple TD game in almost a year (11.2.08) and has only
had 3 multi-TD games in his last 32 starts. Not looking good at
all, especially considering that the Colts have allowed just 2
passing TDs this year.
Matt Cassel
vs. SD
Cassel is working on an impressive streak and has not thrown an
interception in 132 consecutive passes. Unfortunately, he has
been sacked 19 times this season, 2nd highest total in the NFL
(Aaron Rodgers - 25). The Chargers are allowing 217.2 passing
YPG and do a good job of keeping the play in front of them. Their
sluggish pass rush has a chance to actually look good against
the Chiefs.
Ryan Fitzpatrick @ CAR
Fitzpatrick came in for a concussed Trent Edwards and helped win
the game for the Bills over the Jets last week, but his 10 of
25 passing (40%) and 1 TD should not be enough to consider rostering
him for this week’s match up in Carolina. Carolina has looked
ugly this year, but their pass defense has been a strong point,
as they allow just 156.8 passing YPG and 6 aerial scores through
5 games. You really wouldn’t consider Edwards for this game, so
no reason to get cute with Fitzpatrick either.
Jake Delhomme vs. BUF
Last time you’ll see this guy’s name here; he should
not even remotely be considered for fantasy purposes going forward.
4 TDs and 10 INTs in 5 games and, to make matters worse, he has
alienated the best receiver on the team. Stick a fork in him.
Running Backs
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