The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em

Ben Roethlisberger @ KC
Reports indicate that although Roethlisberger practiced on Monday, he did not take a single snap from under center. As long as he can grip the ball without excessive pain, the Steelers may operate largely out of the shotgun formation to accommodate his broken thumb. We’ve all seen Ben play hurt before (and play well); barring a setback, he will be active this week. After a blistering 4-game stretch (Weeks 5-8) in which he tossed 11 TDs and just 2 INTs, Roethlisberger has thrown cooled off with 2 TDs and 2 INTs in his past 2, both against division rivals (vs. Bal, @ Cin). He should be solid against a reeling Chiefs team that has given up 82 points in 3 consecutive losses. Kansas City sacked QB Tom Brady 3 times on Monday night to bring their total to a league-low 12. The last time Roethlisberger played at Arrowhead Stadium (11.22.09) he threw for 398 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INT.

Jake Locker vs. TB
Due to a forearm muscle strain, starter Matt Hasselbeck’s game status will not be known until later this week, but the Titans future QB was impressive in his relief on Sunday. Locker, the 8th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, threw for 140 yards, tossed 2 TDs and had 1 scramble for 11 yards in the second half of the game in Atlanta (Hasselbeck was forced to exit in the 3rd quarter). If he gets the nod it will be his first NFL start (caveat emptor), though he really could not ask for a softer match up. Those besieged at the QB position may want to consider the rookie. Only the Patriots, Packers and Bears have given up more yards through the air than the Bucs (265.4 passing yards per game), who have also served up 18 passing TDs, which ties for the 4th highest number in the league.

Eli Manning @ NO
This won’t be a walk in the park for Eli and the Giants as they head to the Big Easy for a Monday night battle, but Manning should be relied upon to make big plays in what projects to be one of the week’s higher scoring games. Fresh off one of his worst starts of the season (264 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble) it should be noted that Eli has bounced back nicely in the games following his other 2 weak(er) showings. The Saints pass defense has just 5 INTs (tied for 29th in the NFL) compared to 16 passing TDs allowed. They have been burned with 7 passing plays of 40 yards or more.

Tebow will be a fantasy factor against San Deigo.

Tim Tebow @ SD
Tebow is proof that, when it comes to fantasy football, low completion percentages and passer ratings may not matter all that much. Due to some obvious deficiencies in his game, the Broncos are still deciding as to whether Tebow is their long-term answer at QB, but as long as he is under center, he can score for your fantasy team. He generally has remained quiet in the first 3 quarters of games (until Head Coach John Fox removes his handcuffs), and has made some incredible plays in the waning minutes of recent contests. He’s gone 4-1 as a starter (after taking over a 1-4 team) and, one way or the other, will be a big factor in San Diego. The Chargers have allowed 19 aerial TDs (tied for the most in NFL with Colts, Vikings) and 7 rushing TDs and will have their hands full with Tebow. Be advised that if the 4th quarter heroics don’t regularly come to fruition, his numbers could leave a gaping hole in your lineup.

Bench 'Em

Andy Dalton vs. Cle
Playing in the AFC North is not an easy task for any QB and unfortunately, Andy “Pain Don’t Hurt” Dalton has some of his tougher divisional matchups down the stretch of the 2011 season. Dalton has been much, much better than advertised and the preseason “weak arm” claims now seem unwarranted and exaggerated. Last week in Baltimore, despite playing without top target A.J. Green, he set a career-high in passing yards (373). Alternatively, he also threw 3 INTs, bringing his unwanted total to 5 in his last two games. This week he’ll face the Browns, whose strong defense has allowed an average of just 166.5 passing yards per game and 10 aerial TDs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick @ NYJ
As the season has developed, a Fitzpatrick benching this week surely seems obvious, but may not be to all readers. An overly optimistic owner in my main league plugged him in last week (irritated with the play of Philip Rivers) and it cost him. Savvy fantasy owners should not be swayed by his 16 passing TDs as he’s produced a dismal 2 TDs (and 7 INTs) in his last three games with an average of just 182 passing yards per game in that span. Factor in the Jets stellar pass defense (200.1 passing yards per game, 13 INTs, 8 aerial TDs allowed) and this is undisputedly a situation to stay away from. Fitz’s last faced the Jets during Week 9 and easily had his lowest completion percentage (48.4%) of the season.

Joe Flacco vs. SF
Surprisingly, Flacco is coming off of his first multiple-TD game since Week 3. Although his yardage is up this year, his completion percentage is down and he has not taken the step forward that was expected of him. The 49ers allow an average of 249.2 passing yards per game (ranks 23rd), but a lot of this can be attributed to their stout run defense – opposing teams are forced to pass in an effort to gain yards. In any event, I still don’t expect a big game from Flacco this week. Deep threat WR Torrey Smith has struggled to find consistency. The Niners allow 6.7 yards per pass, which is tied for 8th in the NFL, and their 15 INTs are tied for 2nd. Although it would not be surprising if the Ravens won this game at home, it’s difficult to envision either offense putting too many points on the board.

Alex Smith @ Bal
Sticking in the same Thanksgiving Day (night) game, last week Smith, the #1 pick overall pick of the 2005 draft, enjoyed his first multi-TD game since Week 5 and his 2nd highest yardage total of the season. He has thrown 13 TDs compared to just 4 INTs and has proven to be an effective game manager as San Francisco has attempted the fewest passes in the NFL. He makes for a solid if unspectacular back up for your squad but cannot be trusted to start at this juncture in the season. The Ravens have allowed just 7 passing TDs this season (#1 in NFL) while intercepting 11 passes; that, in conjunction with Smith’s lack of prolificacy, means he is much better served on benches this week.

Running Backs