The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em

Matt Ryan @ Car
Last week in Houston, Ryan had 47 pass attempts, which equaled his second highest total this season (for the third time), however, against one of the NFL’s best defenses, the attempts translated to only 267 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. He did manage to top 3,000 passing yards for the third time in four NFL seasons and, dating to Week 2, has and 11-game TD streak. He should find things much easier this week in Carolina. In their first matchup this season (Week 6) he was quiet (14-of-22, 163 yards, 1 TD) as RB Michael Turner controlled much of the game, but Carolina has improved since then and the Falcons aerial attack is going to be called upon. What really stands out to me this week is that the Panthers have allowed 8.4 yards per pass, the highest mark in the NFL. This should bode well for Ryan; in recent weeks both WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez have really elevated their levels of play.

Eli Manning @ Dal
Despite throwing an INT that was returned for a TD, Manning had another quality game last week, throwing for 347 yards and 3 TDs. Over his last two, Eli has 5 TDs and 2 INTs and has averaged 376.5 passing yards per game. Manning has played pretty well against the Cowboys in his career; it is worth noting that his last two trips to Dallas have produced an average of 318 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs. The Giants running game has been in a season-long slump and the Cowboys should be able to lasso Bradshaw and Jacobs and keep them from big games. The Giants defense has been bad in recent weeks and the equation of bad run game + bad defense = lots of Eli this week. Victor Cruz’s emergence has done wonders for Manning as he continues his pace to the best fantasy season of his career.

Good news for Palmer: The Packers have allowed 22 passing TDs.

Carson Palmer @ GB
Palmer was out-of-sync last week in Miami, but managed to save his day with 152 yards and 2 garbage-time TDs in the 4th quarter. Injuries (Jacoby Ford, Denarius Moore, among others) have been a factor all season for the Raiders receiving corps, but Palmer has still accounted for multiple TDs in four of his last five games. He’s a viable play this week in Green Bay as the Packers have allowed an average of 292.8 passing yards per game – the second highest total in the NFL (Patriots – 310) – and their 22 aerial TDs allowed ties them with four teams for the second highest total in the league. Look for Carson to make some noise with blue collar WRs Chaz Schilens and Louis Murphy yet again.

Christian Ponder @ Det
Ponder suffered a hip pointer in Sunday’s loss to Denver, so be sure to monitor his level of participation in practice this week (he missed Wednesday). As their season is all but over, the Vikings should be cautious with him, but at this point Ponder is expected to play in Detroit. He threw for 381 yards and 3 TDs, both career-highs, which easily translated into the best fantasy performance of his young career. Heading into a showdown with the Lions, Ponder has thrown 4 TDs and 2 INTs over his last two and has averaged 283.5 yards per game in that span. Ponder did not play in the Week 3 matchup won by Detroit, but the Lions have lost 5 of their last 7 games and are much more vulnerable to the pass at this juncture. WR Percy Harvin is one of the hottest in the game right now and Ponder knows where to butter his bread.

Bench 'Em

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cle
This will be Ben’s first crack at the Browns in 2011 and many fantasy owners are faced with a tough decision. It is worth noting that Roethlisberger is 13-1 in his career against the Browns and has produced more than his share of big games. This season it is important to consider that Cleveland has limited opponents to 173.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 1st in the NFL. Although they are not likely to intercept many passes (only 6 this season) they have allowed just 11 aerial scores – only the Ravens (8) have given up fewer. If you lack a QB option with upside, you may have to roll with Ben, but with the Browns unlikely to maintain a lead, the game plan could be more run-focused for the Steelers offense.

Alex Smith @ Ari
Smith enjoyed arguably his best game of the season, completing 17-of-23 for 274 yards and 2 TDs and he remains on pace to set career-highs in passing yards, TDs, QB rating and completion percentage. On paper, this week’s game in Arizona may be tempting; it was only in Week 11 that Smith threw 267 yards and 2 scores versus the Cardinals at Candlestick. After further review, an interesting trend is revealed. To date in 2011, Smith has played five road games, where he has averaged 191.4 passing yards per game and tossed just 4 TDs and 2 INTs. Over his last five games when playing at home, Smith has averaged 226 passing yards per game while tossing 9 TDs and just 2 INTs. With three of his final four games on the road, it is safe to forecast a downturn in his production.

Mark Sanchez vs. KC
The Chiefs pass defense is underrated – they do not garner much respect around the league; let’s not forget that in Week 11 they held QB Tom Brady to 234 yards and 2 TDs. This is noteworthy to fantasy owners because Philip Rivers (Week 8) was the last and only QB to throw for 300 or more yards against the Chiefs this season. Although Kansas City struggles to generate pressure on opposing QBs (only 20 sacks), teams have averaged only 213.8 passing yards per game against them. I can’t see Sanchez doing much better than that. Sure he managed 4 TDs against the Bills in Week 12, but he has averaged only 172.5 passing yards per game in that span and in the Jets four other games since their Week 8 bye, he has 3 TDs and 5 INTs.

Running Backs