The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Bye Weeks: Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, Ravens & Redskins

Start 'Em

Matt Ryan vs. GB
There is plenty to like about Matt Ryan this week, coming off of Sunday’s win in Seattle where he completed 28-of-42 passes for 291 yards and a TD. This marked his first interception-free game of the season. Ryan has thrown for at least 291 yards in 3 of 4 starts and at least one TD pass in 3 straight games and in 18 of his last 19 games dating to 2010. With WRs Roddy White, Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has impressive targets at his disposal. The Packers have allowed an average of 335.8 passing yards per game and 9 TDs in 4 games. The last time he faced Green Bay during the regular season, Ryan had the most accurate game of his NFL career, completing 24-of-28 passes (85.7%) for 197 yards and 1 TD.

The Bucs should have more success through the air than on the ground against the 49ers.

Josh Freeman @ SF
The 6’6” QB from Kansas State rallied the Bucs - and some fantasy owners - to a comeback victory on Monday Night Football last week. In what was his best fantasy performance of 2011 he completed 64% of his passes for 287 yards and 1 TD; he also added 27 yards and a rushing score. While this week’s matchup is not ideal, RB LaGarrette Blount could have trouble running wild on the 49ers, which should lead to opportunities for Freeman against a shaky pass defense. San Francisco has given up 1,136 passing yards (27th in NFL), including 5 plays of 40 or more yards. Freeman can take a step forward if he gets more comfortable throwing the deep ball.

Cam Newton vs. NO
Wonder rookie Newton has thrown for at least 374 yards in 3 of the Panthers 4 games this season and he is responsible for 9 total TDs (4 rushing). He is Carolina’s goal line back and has almost become a lock for multiple TDs weekly. He is prone to throwing interceptions (5) but don’t let that stop you from starting him this week in a potential shootout game against the Saints. New Orleans has allowed 8 TDs through the air and an average of 254 yards per game. Few saw this coming, but Cam is the man.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Phi
The Harvard alumni was decidedly quiet last week, as he completed 20-of-34 passes for 199 yards, no TDs and no INTs, but he stands to bounce back this week against Philadelphia. The Eagles pass defense appears solid, allowing an average of 217.8 yards per game, but numbers can be misleading. Teams have not been throwing much against Philadelphia (119 pass attempts against, tied for 27th in the NFL) because their run defense has been so poor; only the Rams (719) and Panthers (575) have allowed more rushing yards than the Eagles (558). So while the Eagles pass defense has not given up much in terms of yardage, they have allowed 10 aerial TDs while intercepting just 2 passes; there is no worse ratio in football. Fitzpatrick should be solid in what figures to be a high scoring game.

Bench 'Em

Jason Campbell @ Hou
Campbell is coming off of his highest passing yardage total (344) in his tenure with the Raiders and the third highest total in his NFL career. I’d still be careful with him this week against a solid Texans pass defense. The Raiders figure to go back to their run-first approach (128 attempts, 2nd in NFL); they lead the NFL with an average of 5.6 yards per carry and 9 rushing TDs. Houston has 12 sacks on the season and has allowed just 5 passing TDs with 4 INTs, rendering Campbell an ill-advised start this week.

Tarvaris Jackson @ NYG
Last week, Jackson threw for a career-high 319 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs against the Falcons. Even if he has turned the corner – the return of productive WR Sidney Rice certainly helps – he makes for a questionable start at Met Life Stadium against the Giants. New York has allowed a respectable average of 244.2 passing yards per game and remain one of five NFL teams (Jets, Ravens, Titans, Lions) who have more interceptions (4) than TD passes allowed (3). They can bring significant pressure, their 12 sacks ties them for 5th in the NFL. Seattle’s O-line has allowed 14 sacks, tied for the 3rd highest total in the league.

Jay Cutler @ Det
It’s tough to figure how the Bears will approach their matchup with the Lions this week. After compiling 82 pass attempts in Weeks 2 & 3, last week Cutler threw just 17 times and completed a meager 9 passes for 102 yards and 1 INT. The Bears obviously deserted their pass-heavy approach, rode RB Matt Forte and helped Cutler to one of his worst fantasy performances ever in game he started and finished. The match up against the Lions is tempting from a “keeping pace” perspective, but I’m not buying it. Without a true WR1, the Bears receivers are weak; their offensive line has allowed 15 sacks and Cutler is completing passes at the worst clip (54.2%) of his career.

Matt Schaub vs. Oak
Schaub will face the Raiders without his biggest weapon as WR Andre Johnson is out with a knee injury. I don’t expect Schaub to hurt you; last week he posted his third straight game with a QB rating above 100. He has a talented receiver in TE Owen Daniels and the Raiders are beatable through the air; they have allowed 273.8 passing yards per game and 8 aerial TDs. Schaub (21 pass attempts in Week 4) may just not have an abundance of opportunities. I have to believe that the Texans will again lean heavily on RB Arian Foster (30 carries, 150 yards, TD last week) against the Raiders porous run defense, which has allowed 5.9 yards per carry and 8 runs of 20 or more yards, both the worst marks in the NFL.

Running Backs