The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Bye Weeks: Bills, Bengals, Eagles, 49ers, Giants, Patriots

Start 'Em

Matt Cassel @ Oak
The season started quite slowly for Cassel and the Chiefs offense; his first two games were forgettable: 1 passing TD, 4 INTs and 252 passing yards combined. Since then, Cassel has found his groove, tossing 7 TDs with just 1 INT in his last three, averaging 231 passing yards per game in that span. WRs Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston have helped stretch the field for Cassel and his average yards-per-attempt has improved significantly, from a pedestrian 4.7 during the first two games - to a respectable 8.4 over the last 3. The Raiders have allowed a whopping 12 passing TDs (including 2 to Browns QB Colt McCoy last week) and an average of 283.5 passing yards per game, which further bolsters Cassel as a solid play this week.

Tim Tebow: Flavor of the week.

Tim Tebow @ Mia
Despite the loss top receiving option Brandon Lloyd in a trade to the Rams, those in a bye-week pinch could do worse than Tebow. Limited to second-half action in Week 5 versus the Chargers, Tebow still managed to toss 1 TD and run for another. That marked five consecutive games in which Tebow has had at least 1 pass attempt that he has thrown for at least 1 TD and ran for another. He is still raw and prone to inaccurate throws, but definitely provides value with his ability to run (6 carries, 38 yards in Week 5; 43 carries, 227 yards last season) and figures to see goal line carries. The Dolphins have given up 10 TDs through the air and allowed a rushing score to QB Mark Sanchez on Monday night.

Josh Freeman vs. Chi (London)
Just one week after an abysmal performance in San Francisco (Week 5: 0 TD, 2 INTs, 187 passing yards), Freeman produced the second 300-yard game of his career (303) along with 2 passing TDs. It wasn’t until about the midway point of 2010 that Freeman elevated his game and the same trend could be underway this season. If the Bucs offensive line can again provide quality pass protection (0 sacks allowed last week), and the young receiving corps continues to improve, then I like Freeman’s chances against a Bears team that has allowed an average of 275.5 passing yards per game and 9 aerial scores.

Curtis Painter @ NO
Painter tossed his first INT of the season last week in a challenging matchup against the underrated Bengals. After three starts, he is averaging 248.6 passing yards per game and has thrown 5 TDs and just 1 INT. His completion percentage has improved each week and he appears to be more comfortable running the Colts offense. He could find himself setting a career-high in pass attempts this week in New Orleans as Indy faces a team that should be fired up coming off of a loss of their own. The Saints pass defense has given up 12 TDs and has only 3 interceptions this season.

Bench 'Em

Philip Rivers @ NYJ
Despite averaging 300 passing yards over his last 4 games, Rivers has been a bit shaky, and has thrown more interceptions (5) than TDs (4) in that span. This week, the challenge is rigid as the Chargers travel to MetLife Stadium to face a team that has been stellar against the pass. The Jets have allowed 3 passing TDs, the lowest number in the NFL and have 9 INTs (tied for 3rd). New York will bring substantial pressure, their 17 sacks is also tied for 3rd in the league. Other factors to consider are the ambiguity surrounding the potential return of TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson’s hamstring strain; in other words, do not count on flashy totals from Rivers this week.

Mark Sanchez vs. SD
In his last three games, Sanchez has thrown 3 TDs with just 1 INT and also added a rushing TD. Unfortunately for his owners, he has averaged just 162 passing yards per game in that span, after posting an average of 295.3 during his first three games. That seems to be the trend with Sanchez, a few weeks of streaky play one way or another. I am finding it hard to trust him this week against the Chargers, who have displayed one of the better pass defenses in the league. Their Achilles heel may be the run defense (they allow 4.6 yards per carry), which could bode well for Shonn Greene; but through the air, San Diego has been tough, allowing an average of just 179.6 passing yards per game and 7 TDs.

Matt Ryan @ Det
After 28 TD passes last season, fourth-year QB Ryan was expected to take another step forward, but with just 8 TDs after six games – and only 4 in his last four – Ryan has yet to deliver the goods. WR Roddy White struggled last week without Julio Jones on the other side of the field and Jones status is cloudy for this week. Even if he plays, Ryan’s pass attempts have dropped significantly for three straight weeks (42-32-22) as RB Michael Turner has been featured in the offense. The Lions have had some issues defending the run (129.5 rushing yards per game; only 2 TDs allowed) but have been stout against the pass (205.5 passing yards per game; 8 INTs, 7 TDs allowed), which could again lead to more Turner and less opportunities for Ryan.

Kevin Kolb vs. Pit
After tossing 4 TDs and 1 INT in his first two games with Arizona, Kolb’s QB rating - and fantasy stock - has plummeted thanks to 1 TD and 5 INTs in his last three. Although the Steelers aren’t quite as intimidating as in years past, they still boast the lowest average passing yards allowed per game (157.7) in the NFL and have allowed just 6 aerial scores. Despite the emergence of RB Beanie Wells in the run game – which should help Kolb - the Cardinals pass attack has been stuck in neutral. Kolb had some extra practice time (AZ had their bye last week) in order to work out some wrinkles, but short of channeling his inner Kurt Warner, he will be fighting an uphill battle this week.

Running Backs